- The Boston Bruins have have moved into the favorite’s role at +120 odds to win the NHL’s Atlantic Division
- The defending Presidents’ Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped to odds of +300
- Get the latest Atlantic Division odds, our analysis and best bet below
The Boston Bruins were the last Atlantic Division team to win the Stanley Cup. The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup.
It’s early in the NHL season to be sure but these two teams are among the biggest movers and shakers in what so far has been a very fascinating start within the Atlantic Division.
On average across the leading sportsbooks, the Bruins have shifted into favored status to win the division. Boston is almost even money, listed at +120 in the Atlantic Division odds. Sportsbooks peg the Bruins at +155 to take the division title.
2019-20 Atlantic Division Odds
|Toronto Maple Leafs||+300|
|Tampa Bay Lightning||+325|
|Detroit Red Wings||+75000|
Odds taken on November 9, 2019.
Montreal opened the season at +4000 but the Canadians have halved their average odds since, dropping to +2000.
Bruins are Winning Like a Boss
The 11-3-2 Bruins are atop the Atlantic, second in the East and third in the NHL. David Pastrnak leads the league in goals (15) and points (31). Pastrnak and Brad Marchand (18) are second in the NHL in assists.
David Pastrnak (2) joined @NHLBruins legend Bobby Orr (3) as the second player in franchise history to post multiple point streaks of 12+ games prior to his 24th birthday. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/CEt0w4d7UK
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) November 5, 2019
According to naturalstattrick.com, Boston is also among the top third of the NHL in Corsi, Fenwick and high danger save percentage both overall and at five-on-five.
But the Bruins have also hit their first rough patch of the season with back-to-back road losses at Montreal and to Detroit, 31st overall in the NHL.
"You try to stay even-keel, whether you’re playing well or you’re playing bad…You can’t get stuck on a game first week of November. We’ll regroup and get ready for the next one."
?Bruce Cassidy, Torey Krug, Tuukka Rask and Brad Marchand react to the 4-2 loss in Detroit: pic.twitter.com/yVXR1hI4ir
— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) November 9, 2019
However, this may be more due to circumstances then trends. Boston is down to 11 healthy forwards. Defenseman Steven Kampfer was deployed up from against the Wings.
Canadiens Developing Winning Hab-its?
Montreal opened a middling 4-4-2 through the first 10 games. The Habs have gone 4-1-1 since.
Like the Bruins, the analytics suggest that Montreal’s latter performance is sustainable. The Canadiens are in the top third of the league in five-on-five Corsi For and Fenwick.
Carey Price with the huge cross-crease save. pic.twitter.com/nIIUwVfQ4s
— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) November 8, 2019
They’re also an impressive third overall in high danger save percentage.
Montreal’s 51.01 high danger chances for percentage is the best in the division.
Sabres, Panthers also Climbing
Buffalo (9-5-2) and Florida (7-3-5) are two other teams making early noise in the Atlantic.
The Sabres, who opened at +7500 to win the division, are now +900. The Panthers’ odds have remained steady at +1000.
"I think guys have a lot to be proud of for the first 15 games. We've all worked extremely hard."
— Florida Panthers (@FlaPanthers) November 8, 2019
However, the Sabres have lost four in a row and scored just five goals in those losses. On the other hand, the Panthers have suffered one regulation loss in their last 12 games (6-1-5).
Analytics back up the direction that these teams are headed. Buffalo is 24th in the NHL in five-on-five Corsi and Fenwick. Florida is seventh overall in both statistical categories.
Lightning Striking Out
The top team in the NHL last season, if the playoffs began today, the Lightning would be watching on TV. At 7-5-2 Tampa Bay is 11th overall in the East.
Performance vs workload
Here are goalies who are underperforming the workloads they've faced:
Andersen, Bobrovsky, Fleury, Holtby, Vasilevskiy, Murray, Rittich
And some overperformers, at random:
Price, Smith, Varlamov, Lundqvist, Lehner/Crawford, Kuemper pic.twitter.com/V3Pern8sUl
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) November 7, 2019
Analytically, though, the Lightning mostly look very good. They are in the top-10 in five-on-five Corsi and Fenwick. But their high danger save percentage is 20th, indicating that they’re not getting the big saves from Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Bruin Up a Title
All the numbers suggest that Boston is legit. The defending Eastern Conference champions are certainly the cream of the Atlantic Division crop.
Tuukka Rask became the fourth different @NHLBruins goaltender to record a season-opening point streak of 8+ games and first in 41 years.
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) November 3, 2019
As this point, betting on any other team to win the division would be an unwise decision.
Pick: Boston Bruins (+155).
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