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Bruins vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Player Props (Wednesday, Mar. 27)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 27, 2024 · 11:32 AM PDT

Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak controls the puck against Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 13, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) controls the puck while Tampa Bay Lightning center Tyler Motte (64) defends during the first period at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
  • We’ve made our Bruins vs Lightning prediction for Wednesday night
  • The NHL odds favor the Bolts by a slim margin on their home ice
  • Read below for Bruins vs Lightning prediction, odds and player props to bet

The Boston Bruins (42-16-15) head south to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (39-25-7) in a highly anticipated Atlantic Division showdown on Wednesday night. Puck drop at Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET with the game televised on TNT.

The Lightning are slight -115 moneyline favorites, while the over/under is set at 6 goals. Player props are available, with oddsmakers forecasting big performances from David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov.

Let’s get into our Bruins vs Lightning prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine the best player props to wager on.

Bruins vs Lightning Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
BOS Bruins +1.5 (-260) -105 Over 6.0 (-105)
TB Lightning -1.5 (+210) -115 Under 6.0 (-115)

Tampa Bay is a slight -115 moneyline favorite in the Wednesday NHL odds, giving them an implied win probability of 53.5%.

The latest 2024 Stanley Cup odds price Boston as top-10 favorites at +1100, while the Lightning are +1800 longshots.

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Odds as of March 27, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the available Bet365 promotions to wager on Bruins vs Lightning on TNT.

Bruins vs Lightning Head-to-Head Stats

Bruins
VS
Lightning
1-0-2 Head-To-Head 2-1-0
42-16-15 NHL Regular Season Record 39-25-7
3.32 (10th) Goals For/GP 3.48 (6th)
2.74 (7th) Goals Against/GP 3.31 (23rd)
23.6% (8th) Power Play 29.0% (1st)
82.1% (7th) Penalty Kill 82.4% (6th)
49.4% (20th) Faceoff % 51.6% (10th)

Bruins Betting Analysis

The Bruins are coming off a thrilling 4-3 victory over the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. Trailing 3-2 late in the third period, center Trent Frederic scored his 18th goal of the season on the power play to tie the game. Minutes later, center Pavel Zacha fired in the game-winner, which was also his 18th tally of the year.

The win propelled Boston into first place in the Atlantic Division, one point ahead of the Panthers. With at least one point against the Lightning tonight, they can clinch a spot in the NHL Playoff Bracket.

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The Bruins are led by their superstar winger David Pastrnak, who ranks second in the NHL with 45 goals and is tied for third with 101 points. Pastrnak has tormented the Lightning throughout his career, tallying 19 goals and 34 points in 32 games. Brad Marchand (27 goals) and Pavel Zacha (18 goals) provide a secondary scoring punch.

In net, the Bruins boast the league’s best goaltending duo in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark, last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, is 19-8-7 with a 2.66 goals-against average and .913 save percentage. Swayman has been even better, going 23-8-8 with a 2.58 GAA and .916 save percentage.

With Swayman starting Tuesday night against the Panthers, Wednesday’s projected starting NHL goalie is Ullmark. The Swede is having a good season but he’s only 5-6-1 vs the Lightning in his career with a .901 save percentage.

Lightning Betting Analysis

On the other side, the Lightning have been one of the NHL’s hottest teams over the past few weeks. They are 6-0-1 in their last seven contests and are returning home after a perfect 4-0-0 road trip through the Western Conference.

On Sunday, the Bolts outlasted the Anaheim Ducks 3-2 in overtime, with recently acquired winger Anthony Duclair scoring the game-winner. Duclair has provided an offensive spark since joining the Lightning, lighting the lamp five times in seven games

Tampa Bay’s offense revolves around their dynamic duo of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Kucherov is tied for the NHL scoring lead with 123 points (41 goals, 82 assists) and has recorded at least one point in 12 straight games. Point has been on a goal-scoring binge, finding the back of the net 10 times in his last eight games.

The Lightning also have a formidable power play, converting at a league-best 29.0% clip. Kucherov and Steven Stamkos are tied for the team lead with 15 power-play goals each. They face a Bruins penalty kill that is ranked eighth in the league at 23.6%.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for the Lightning in goal. The former Vezina Trophy winner is 26-16-2 with a 2.94 GAA and .897 save percentage this season. While those numbers are pedestrian by his lofty standards, Vasilevskiy has elevated his play of late, going 8-1-1 with a 2.27 GAA and .924 save percentage in March.

Bruins vs Lightning Player Props

In the NHL player props market, Davis Pastrnak is the only odds-on favorite to light the lamp at -120 odds. His point total is 1.5, while Tampa Bay star Nikita Kucherov is the only other player who shares the same point projection.

Player Anytime Goalscorer Shots on Goal (O/U) Points (O/U) Saves (O/U)
David Pastrnak -120 4.5 (+114o/-145u) 1.5 (+145o/-190u) N/A
Nikita Kucherov +130 3.5 (-110o/-120u) 1.5 (+130o/-166u) N/A
Brayden Point +170 2.5 (-130o/+100u) 0.5 (-210o/+160u) N/A
Steven Stamkos +190 2.5 (-130o/+100u) 0.5 (-195o/+150u) N/A
Brandon Hagel +210 2.5 (+140o/-180u) 0.5 (-135o/+105u) N/A
Brad Marchand +220 2.5 (+150o/-195u) 0.5 (-150o/+120u) N/A
Anthony Duclair +230 1.5 (-180o/+140u) 0.5 (-120o/-110u) N/A
Jake DeBrusk +230 2.5 (+145o/-190u) 0.5 (-105o/-125u) N/A
Charlie Coyle +255 1.5 (-135o/+105u) 0.5 (-110o/-120u) N/A
Pavel Zacha +255 1.5 (-145o/+114u) 0.5 (-110o/-166u) N/A
Nicholas Paul +295 1.5 (-140o/+110u) 0.5 (+130o/-166u) N/A
Morgan Geekie +330 N/A N/A N/A
Andrei Vasilevskiy N/A N/A N/A 25.5 (-105o/-125u)
Linus Ullmark N/A N/A N/A 25.5 (-130o/+100u)

NHL player prop odds as of March 27, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Visit our NHL player props page for more expansive betting options.

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Here are a couple of NHL prop bets we’ve locked in for Wednesday’s action:

David Pastrnak (Bruins) Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (+114)
Pastrnak is averaging 4.96 shots per game this season and has gone over 4.5 shots in six of his last 10 games. The Lightning have allowed the 6th most shots per game this year at 33.2, so Pastrnak should have plenty of opportunities to fire the puck on net.

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) Anytime Goal (+130)
Kucherov has been on a goal-scoring tear lately, lighting the lamp in three straight games. He has 41 goals on the season and is tied for the NHL scoring lead with 123 points. Kucherov has also scored in two of three games against the Bruins this year.

Bruins vs Lightning Prediction

The advanced metrics for these two teams over the past two months are fairly similar, with each squad falling just below the 50% mark in Corsi (possession). However, the B’s do hold a clear edge in expected goals, as they sport a 54.9% xGF% over the past 10 games, while the Bolts have a 46.6 xGF% in that same span.

Here are some Bruins vs Lightning betting trends that can help us make an educated wager on the game tonight:

  •  Lightning are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Boston are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against Tampa Bay.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 13 games against Boston.

This is a hard game to pick. The Bruins are the superior team, but the Bolts have turned it on recently and are the more desperate team. Boston is the stingier defensive team, but they may concede more scoring chances as they play for the second straight night.

Our most confident play is going to be the “under”, as Vasilevskiy has excelled against Boston in his career with a .914 career save percentage. With plenty at stake for both teams, expect another hard-fought and low-scoring battle in this rivalry.

BOS vs TBL Pick:

  • Under 6 (-115)

 

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