Carolina Hurricanes Surge to -170 in Odds to Make 2020 NHL Playoffs; Opened at +100
- The Carolina Hurricanes’ Cinderella run saw them finish as the runner-up in the Eastern Conference last year
- After opening at just +100 to make the 2020 playoffs, heavy money has been coming in on the Canes
- Will they be in the hunt for the Stanley Cup again?
The Carolina Hurricanes enjoyed a magical 2018/19. They captured the attention of the NHL with their Storm Surge celebrations post-game. They also drew the ire of Don Cherry which, while easy, is still fun.
To cap it off, they rode that momentum all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now people are wondering if they can do it again. Oddsmakers weren’t convinced at first, but early bettors certainly are. The Canes’ 2020 playoff odds opened at even-money, but are now -170 on average and as short as -190 at some online sportsbooks.
2020 NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Odds
| Team | 2018/19 Record | 2018/19 Points | Odds to Make Playoffs | Odds to Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 62-16-4 | 128 | -500 | +350 |
| Boston Bruins | 49-24-9 | 107 | -300 | +240 |
| Washington Capitals | 48-26-8 | 104 | -200 | +160 |
| New York Islanders | 48-27-7 | 103 | -150 | +120 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 46-28-8 | 100 | -350 | +275 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 44-26-12 | 100 | -205 | +165 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 46-29-7 | 99 | -190 | +155 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 47-31-4 | 98 | +175 | -215 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 44-30-8 | 96 | +120 | -150 |
| Florida Panthers | 36-32-14 | 86 | -250 | +195 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 37-37-8 | 82 | -120 | -110 |
| New York Rangers | 32-36-14 | 78 | +115 | -145 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 33-39-10 | 76 | +180 | -220 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 32-40-10 | 74 | +375 | -550 |
| New Jersey Devils | 31-41-10 | 72 | -160 | +130 |
| Ottawa Senators | 29-47-6 | 64 | +625 | -1100 |
*Odds taken 09/15/2019
Carolina resides in the Atlantic Division, where the Penguins and Capitals are playoff fixtures, the Islanders surprised last season, and Columbus took the last Wild Card spot.
Carolina Hurricanes Should Capitalize on Islanders, Blue Jackets Regression
Looking at the off-season, Columbus lost a lot. Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene and Sergei Bobrovsky walked in free agency. They weren’t replaced, so Columbus is in tough.
The big change the Islanders made was in net. Robin Lehner out, Semyon Varlamov in.
While Varlamov’s career totals are good, Lehner had a ridiculous 2018/19. The likelihood of Varlamov posting a 2.13 GAA is low. There’s regression there.
The rest of the division is full of interesting, but tough to predict teams. The Rangers will likely see a significant bump, and the Flyers could too.
Petr Mrazek Must Be Solid for Carolina Hurricanes
The Canes are similar to the Islanders in net, but they have two advantages.
One is that they aren’t transitioning to a new goalie. The second, is that while Petr Mrazek’s 2018/19 was good, it wasn’t quite as electric as Lehner’s. That means the fall-off isn’t as great.
And the goalies that get to play behind this: Petr Mrazek and… James Reimer. 😭 https://t.co/kcUiwJb5h1
— Steve “Dangle” Glynn (@Steve_Dangle) September 6, 2019
The table below compares Mrazek’s 2019 statistics to his career numbers:
Petr Mrazek 2019 vs Career Averages
| 23-14-3 | Record | 19-15-6 |
| .914 | SV% | .910 |
| 2.39 | GAA | 2.71 |
| 23 | Quality Starts | 19 |
Mrazek’s averages are over 43 games, removing his first two seasons. He played 40 games for Carolina last year.
The numbers are fairly in line. So regression should be minimal. The James Reimer insurance policy they took out this off-season insulates the position.
Carolina Hurricanes Deep on Defense
The Hurricanes didn’t just get a steal when they signed Jake Gardiner. They bolstered a group that was among the league’s deepest.
The Carolina Hurricanes defenseman, my God!
Dougie Hamilton is MAJESTIC
Jaccob Slavin is a SAVIOR
Jake Gardiner is BEAUTIFUL
Brett Pesce is CONSISTENT
Justin Faulk
Haydn Fleury is GROWING
— The Canes Stats Brand™ (@CanesStats) September 6, 2019
Hurricanes’ Defensive Depth Chart
| Player | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Takeaways/Giveaways | Corsi For % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk | 559 | 85 | 173 | 375/362 | 52.5% |
| Jake Gardiner | 551 | 45 | 200 | 253/530 | 51.0% |
| Dougie Hamilton | 505 | 82 | 177 | 148/356 | 55.4% |
| Brett Pesce | 289 | 16 | 68 | 190/110 | 52.8% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 309 | 23 | 92 | 300/179 | 53.5% |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | 315 | 14 | 47 | 121/138 | 52.8% |
We’ll plug van Riemsdyk into the sixth spot for now.
Trade rumors are swirling around Faulk, but he had a simple response when camp opened. ‘I’m still here‘.
Justin Faulk on all of the trade rumors and his situation. He declined to comment about any specifics (i.e. his contractual clauses and teams he may or may not have rejected a trade to/talked to). pic.twitter.com/Rm0lIHAS1q
— Brett Finger (@brettfinger) September 13, 2019
If those rumors are hearsay, then they have (arguably) the deepest defense in the division. If they’re true, then he likely brings back a boost to their forward unit.
Where do Carolina Hurricanes Land in the Playoff Picture?
On paper, the Hurricanes are a playoff team. A deep defense and one-two punch in net.
But the margin for error is paper thin.
There’s very little NHL experience behind Reimer and Mrazek. An injury could spell disaster.
They also can’t afford much of a letdown offensively. Losing Justin Williams and Micheal Ferland hurts. They have a talented young core, spearheaded by Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Aho has steadily improved over his three seasons. Svechnikov, while supremely talented, is still just a sophomore.
The ‘Canes should be there at the end of the season with a few celebrations for their fans.
But things rarely go perfectly. A key injury or a mis-timed slump and Carolina could be on the outside looking in. At +155 it’s a worthwhile chance to take.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
