Connor McDavid’s Hart Trophy Odds (+350) Nearly Twice as Short as Any Other Player
- Connor McDavid’s odds to win the Hart Trophy are +350
- His odds haven’t changed since the season opened; Nathan MacKinnon’s have improved, while Nikita Kucherov has fallen off
- Read below to find out who the best bet to be named the NHL’s MVP
For Connor McDavid, and the hunt for a second Hart Trophy, the start to the NHL season has been perfect.
Entering Saturday, his Oilers are 4-0-0; one of just three teams to have not suffered a loss. McDavid has points in all four games, with multiple points in his last three.
He’s tied for tops in assists and points, and propelled James Neal to the lead in goals.
So if he keeps this up, is McDavid a lock for the Hart trophy?
2019-20 Hart Trophy Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | +350 |
| Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning | +650 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Colorado Avalanche | +650 |
| Taylor Hall | New Jersey Devils | +900 |
| Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins | +1100 |
| Patrick Kane | Chicago Blackhawks | +1100 |
| Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | +1200 |
| Alexander Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +1300 |
| Johnny Gaudreau | Calgary Flames | +1400 |
| Evgeni Malkin | Pittsburgh Penguins | +2000 |
| Aleksander Barkov | Florida Panthers | +2300 |
| John Gibson | Anaheim Ducks | +2300 |
| Mitch Marner | Toronto Maple Leafs | +2500 |
| Carey Price | Montreal Candiens | +2500 |
| John Tavares | Toronto Maple Leafs | +2500 |
*Odds taken 10/10/2019.
There are a handful of names that have slipped slightly in the odds because of ‘slow’ starts.
Nikita Kucherov has six points in four games, just four points off of the league lead. But it still sees him dip slightly on our 2020 Hart Trophy Odds. Conversely, Nate MacKinnon has five points in three games, and his average odds improved.
Other popular names that have experienced slow starts include Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews and Sidney Crosby.
2019/20 NHL Point Leaders
| Player | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points | Point Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.2 |
| Connor McDavid | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.1 |
| John Carlson | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1.2 |
| Matt Duchene | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.7 |
| Mark Scheifele | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Mike Zibanejad | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.2 |
| Anthony Mantha | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1.3 |
Going back to the Hart tracker, Scheifele is the only other one among the top 15 to sit top eight in scoring. And barring something unforeseen, most of these names don’t have the staying power.
Scheifele put it on a tee for Patrik Laine who hammers it home!
2-1 #NHLJets pic.twitter.com/QFFLvKUtdZ
— JetsNation (@NHLJetsNation) October 11, 2019
Duchene, Carlsson, Zibanejad, Mantha, and Laine have never had 80-point seasons. Laine has the highest upside of the group, with just three NHL seasons under his belt.
Carlsson finished with 70 points last year, but the only thing likely changing are his Norris Trophy odds.
Laine vs McDavid: Career Averages
| 237 | Total Games Played | 287 |
| 38 | Goals | 37 |
| 25 | Assists | 70 |
| 63 | Points | 107 |
| 15 | PPG | 5 |
| 239 | Shots | 249 |
This shows that Laine definitely lacks in the assist category.
Since the year 2000, Alex Ovechkin is the only player to win the Hart trophy over a full season with fewer than 50 assists. He had to score 65 goals to do it in 2007/08.
Blake Wheeler just told reporters that, by the time he's done in the league, his goal is for Patrik Laine to be in the "best player" conversation
— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) October 11, 2019
Laine is currently on pace for 49 goals. To carry this momentum through, he’d likely need to maintain that pace, and mix in 50 assists. He’s never had more than 26 in a season.
While he’s not there now, he could show up on the odds if this continues. He’s definitely worth watching.
Do Goalies Carry Any Hart Value?
Carey Price and John Gibson have had very different starts.
The Habs have been bleeding goals to start the year. Their 18 against are third-most in the East. The Ducks have allowed just five against. That’s second-lowest in the NHL of any team with at least three games played.
Carey Price vs John Gibson
| 3 | Games Played | 4 |
| 1-1-1 | Record | 3-1-0 |
| 3.51 | Goals-Against Average | 1.26 |
| .903 | Save Percentage | .961 |
| 2 | Quality Starts | 4 |
The key for Gibson will be keeping Anaheim in the playoff hunt. Their nine goals are fourth-fewest in the West so far, and if that keeps up they’ll come back down to earth.
Carey Price on OT:
Mitch Marner breakaway, save.
John Tavares breakaway, save.
John Tavares pretty incredible move with 5 seconds left, save.Not bad.
— Аrpon Basu (@ArponBasu) October 6, 2019
In Montreal, they’ve been keeping games tight. All four games have been decided by two goals or less. If Price rights the ship, and stays healthy, he offers interesting long term value.
McDavid Still Worth Early-Season Investment
With it being so early it’s tough to tell what’s a slow start and what’s a season-long trend.
All things considered, Connor McDavid is producing like the best player in the NHL. Because he is.
It’s feasible that, if Edmonton stays in the playoff picture, these are McDavid’s best odds all season. Feel free to buy now.
But don’t ignore other tried and true names. Kucherov and MacKinnon are both playing at point-per-game paces, and star in offenses that should produce all year long.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
