- Four goalies are among the top 15 when it comes to the Hart Trophy Odds
- The best odds belong to Carey Price at +2500
- Will a goalie take home the 2019/20 Hart Trophy?
It’s been four years since a goalie claimed the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP.
That was Carey Price in 2014/15 when he lead the Canadiens to top spot in the Atlantic Division.
Now he’s in the mix again. Among the top 15 in the Hart Trophy odds, Price is the top goalie. He’s one of four goalies currently getting some love on the books.
2019/20 Hart Trophy Odds
|Connor McDavid||Edmonton Oilers||+225|
|Nikita Kucherov||Tampa Bay Lightning||+550|
|Nathan MacKinnon||Colorado Avalanche||+800|
|Sidney Crosby||Pittsburgh Penguins||+950|
|Taylor Hall||New Jersey Devils||+950|
|Patrick Kane||Chicago Blackhawks||+1200|
|Alexander Ovechkin||Washington Capitals||+1400|
|Auston Matthews||Toronto Maple Leafs||+1800|
|Carey Price||Montreal Canadiens||+2500|
|John Tavares||Toronto Maple Leafs||+2500|
|Ben Bishop||Dallas Stars||+2800|
|Ryan O’Reilly||St. Louis Blues||+2800|
|Sergei Bobrovsky||Columbus Blue Jackets||+2800|
|John Gibson||Anaheim Ducks||+3000|
|Johnny Gaudreau||Calgary Flames||+3000|
Odds taken November 4th.
Right now, the goalies fall into the longshot category on our Hart Trophy odds tracker.
Entering Monday’s action, Sergei Bobrovsky and John Gibson had their teams in playoff spots. Price’s Canadiens and Ben Bishop’s Dallas Stars are on the outside looking in.
Having won the award before, Price’s pedigree plays a part in this. So could he claim his second award?
Price Behind the Pack in Hart Race
When you isolate his season, Price is having a good year. While it isn’t up to his lofty standards, it’s still early. And two years removed from an injury-ravaged 2017/18, he’ll take it.
Carey Price’s Past Four 55+ Start Seasons vs 2019/20
|Season||Games Started||Record||GAA||Save Percentage||Hart Trophy Results|
|2014/15||66||44-16-6||1.96||.933||Won Hart Trophy|
Price has landed on the Hart ballot two other times, finishing seventh and 17th.
While 2019’s numbers aren’t in line with his hardware-worthy seasons, there’s a silver lining. According to Hockey-Reference, Price’s Quality Start Percentage is .636. That’s his highest since 2015/16.
Also, since I have the dataset open, here is an informational histogram of Carey Price's performance since the 2016-17 season.
55.4% of the time he has allowed 2 goals or less. pic.twitter.com/s9bMnQMS9n
— Andrew Zadarnowski (@AZadarski) October 31, 2019
That year, he posted a .667, going 10-2-0 with a 2.06 GAA and a .934 save percentage.
Price’s season is likely on an upward trajectory.
The Numbers Behind the Hart Trophy Race
If two of his contemporaries keep up this pace, Price will need every quality start he can muster.
Hart Trophy Candidate Comparison
|Goalie||Games Started||Record||GAA||Save Percentage||GA%-|
|Carey Price, MTL||11||6-4-1||2.64||.915||93|
|John Gibson, ANA||12||6-6-0||2.51||.926||81|
|Ben Bishop, DAL||11||4-5-1||2.33||.922||85|
|Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA||11||6-2-3||3.36||.882||129|
Bobrovsky’s slow start seems to have doomed him.
Despite his struggles, the Panthers entered Monday sitting third in the Atlantic. With 51 goals-for and 51 goals-against, Florida is succeeding in spite of Bob.
Sergei Bobrovsky has an .869 save percentage in the first 10 games of his seven year, $70-million deal in Florida.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) October 29, 2019
Whether he improves or not, it likely removes him from the Hart Trophy conversation.
Gibson Succeeding Despite Ducks’ Struggles
The Ducks are in a weird spot. They’re middle-of-the-pack when it comes to goals-for, but just creeping into the top ten in goals-against.
The Anaheim Ducks are trying to force John Gibson into retirement. No other explanation.
— Bryan Hayes (@HayesTSN) November 2, 2019
That’s entirely because of John Gibson. The Ducks are second in terms of shots-against, giving up 527. That averages out to 33 a game, five more than they’re taking.
John Gibson is truly Goalie Jesus
— Pucks of a Feather (@PucksofaFeather) November 2, 2019
Gibson is supremely talented, and should earn some Vezina love. But the team around him may not be good enough to put him in the MVP conversation.
Bishop, Stars Need to Turn it Around
The Stars are in a similar spot. They’ve allowed slightly more and scored slightly less. All of that has come amid a fine season from Bishop.
So long as the Stars sneak their way back into a playoff spot, Bishop is a solid buy. Especially after finishing 19th in Hart voting last year.
But there’s always a looming threat of an injury with him. It adds an asterisk to any investment.
Price, Bishop Best Goalie Buys in Hart Trophy Conversation
When it comes to the Hart Trophy, Carey Price and Ben Bishop are the best buys, with the slight edge to Price.
Both have battled injury throughout their careers, and are looking up at stacked fields. Since Price won the award, the closest a goalie has come was Bobrovsky’s third-place finish in 2016/17.
There’s a reason both are longshots for the Hart. But if you want to swing for the fences, it’s worth looking between the pipes.
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