Leafs vs Lightning Series Odds, Preview, Schedule & Prediction
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Maple Leafs and Lightning meet in the First Round of the Playoffs for the second straight year
- Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004, while Tampa Bay has been to the Stanley Cup Finals in three straight seasons
- See the Maple Leafs vs Lightning series odds below, plus a preview and picks
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Maple Leafs and Lightning will square off in the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That was the exact scenario a year ago, and just like Toronto’s previous six playoff appearances, the end result was heartbreak for Leafs nation.
It’s been nearly 20 years since the Maple Leafs won a postseason series, but online sportsbooks are expecting that to change in 2023 per the NHL odds.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -150 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +130 |
Toronto opened up as a -150 favorite over Tampa Bay for this seven-game series. The Maple Leafs will have home-ice advantage, after racking up 13 more points than the Lightning during the regular season.
Games 1 and 2 go Tuesday and Thursday in T.O, but having an extra game in Toronto didn’t do them any good in last year’s playoff loss to Tampa Bay.
Odds as of April 13 at DraftKings Sportsbook.Â
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Analysis
Toronto took a 3-2 series lead into Tampa Bay last season, but dropped Game 6 there as well as Game 7 at home to sink their playoff fate. The Maple Leafs have come up short in Game 7’s in four of the past five seasons, and have failed to make it out of the opening round in seven straight postseason trips.
Toronto last won a playoff series in 2004, advancing to the Conference Semi-Finals. This year’s team is arguably better suited to beat the Lightning than last year, but they’re certainly no slam dunk to do so.
The Maple Leafs will be going against the Lightning in the first round for the second consecutive year.
What do the Leafs need to do to get out of the first round for the first time since 2004? #LeafsForever@Jackie_Redmond | @EJHradek_NHL | @MissinCurfew | #NHLNow pic.twitter.com/hPkpOCU8i9
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) April 4, 2023
The Maple Leafs have a wealth of offensive talent. Four 30-goal scorers, and two more that have lit the lamp 20 times. Unlike previous seasons, they’ve spent a ton of money bolstering their back end, and acquired some much-needed grit and leadership by trading for Stanley Cup champion Ryan O’Reilly.
The goaltending has been upgraded as well, with Ilya Samsonov entering the postseason in peak form. The 26-year-old has a .933 save percentage and 2.02 GAA over his past nine games.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Analysis
Either bettors are sleeping on the Lightning, or their incredible three-year run is about to come to an end. Seven teams boast better Stanley Cup odds than Tampa Bay, despite two championships and three Stanley Cup Finals appearances in the last three years.
The Lightning appear to have been on cruise control all season, but still found their way to 98 points. Sure, they finished the season with an underwhelming 1-4 record, but once the playoff lights turn on, expect their plethora of stars to shine bright.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning 2022-23 Head-to-Head Results
| 2-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| 11 | Goals | 8 |
| 4 | PP Goals | 2 |
| 50 | Penalty Minutes | 44 |
| 74 | Hits | 82 |
Vasilevskiy is the most successful playoff goalie since Martin Brodeur, recording a save percentage north of .920 in over 100 playoff games. He can singlehandedly steal a postseason series, while the Lightning have the pieces on the blue line to slow down the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and Co.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series Prediction
Hedman, a past champion in the Norris Trophy odds, is arguably the most important position player on either team. One of he, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak are almost always on the ice, allowing Tampa Bay to matchup with Toronto’s big guns.
The Lightning’s offense is no joke themselves, boasting four 30-goal scorers of their own, and there’s something to be said about past playoff success. Tampa Bay has proven they can dig themselves out of early series holes, and they appear just as comfortable playing in hostile road arenas, as they do at home.
Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Results Since 2004
| Year | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tampa Bay Lightning | L, 4-3 |
| 2021 | Montreal Canadiens | L, 4-3 |
| 2020 | Columbus Blue Jackets | L, 3-2 |
| 2019 | Boston Bruins | L, 4-3 |
| 2018 | Washington Capitals | L, 4-2 |
| 2017 | Boston Bruins | L, 4-3 |
| 2013 | Boston Bruins | L, 4-3 |
Vasilevskiy is the X-factor, capable of completely silencing an opponent, and carrying his team to improbable victories.
Toronto will break their playoff drought one day, but this is just a terrible draw for them. Jon Cooper’s club is one of the most difficult obstacles to overcome in the NHL Playoff bracket, and they are being massively undervalued at the moment.
Expect another long, hard-fought series, with Tampa Bay prevailing in six or seven games.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (+130)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
