Leafs’ Odds to Win Atlantic Improve from +1500 to +930; Bruins Still Odds-On Favorites at -370

• The Bruins (-370) are still odds-on favorites to win the Atlantic Division
• The Maple Leafs saw their odds improve from +1500 to +930 over the last two weeks
• Which team is the best bet to win the Atlantic Division?

The Bruins remain odds-on favorites to win the Atlantic Division, while the Maple Leafs are rising in the latest odds due to improved play under a new head coach.

Are the Bruins still the best bet in the Atlantic Division odds, or is there another team with better value?

2019-20 Atlantic Division Odds

Odds taken Dec. 16

Bruins Still On Top 

The Bruins are still heavy -400 favorites on average to win the Atlantic Division despite a recent five-game losing streak. The B’s broke out of their slump with a big 4-2 win over the Panthers on December 14. They currently have a nine-point lead over the second-place Buffalo Sabres.

A big reason oddsmakers still love the Bruins is the team’s great balance of offense and defense. Boston is ranked top-five in both goals for and goals against, while most of their division rivals have been struggling in at least one of those areas.

Boston remains a great bet to win the Atlantic due to the elite play of David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, in addition to a strong goaltending tandem of Jaroslav Halak and Tuukka Rask. The Maple Leafs and Lightning may be forced to overwork their starting goaltender, while the Bruins have the luxury of being able to split starts evenly.

Can Maple Leafs Close Gap? 

Toronto is now +930 on average to win the division after being as long as +1500 two weeks ago. One of the reasons for the improved odds is the team’s inspired play since the firing of Mike Babcock. The Leafs are 7-4 since Sheldon Keefe took over as bench boss.

Ilya Mikheyev on the biggest difference for #Leafs under Sheldon Keefe vs. Mike Babcock: "Maybe, we play more with puck."

— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) December 15, 2019

An area of concern for the Leafs remains their defense and goaltending. The Leafs are allowing 3.15 goals per game and don’t have a reliable backup behind workhorse starting netminder Frederik Andersen.

The Leafs may make a trade to improve their situation, but it’s going to be tough with how much money they have locked up in superstar forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. The two teams in front of them in the odds are more complete teams.

Best Atlantic “Longshot” Bet

The Bruins are a powerhouse, but I see good value with a different team in the latest odds. The Tampa Bay Lightning have seen their odds drop to +630 on average despite being 7-5-1 in their last 13 games. There is still over half a season to go, and the Bolts only have five fewer wins than Boston with three games in hand.

The Lightning were the preseason division favorites after an incredible 2018-19 regular season that saw them go 62-16-4 before getting swept by Columbus in the first round of the playoffs. Some adversity early on this season may set them up for a monster second half.

A rough 45 seconds, giving up chances, and missed opportunities.@bburnsnhl’s 3 Things | #WSHvsTBL https://t.co/bcOdG0n89l

— x – Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) December 15, 2019

Signs things may improve for the Lightning is that they rank ninth in Corsi (51.28 CF%) and fourth in High Danger Corsi (54.26 HDCF%). They’re doing very well possession-wise but don’t have the results to show for it — yet.

Andrei Vasilevskiy owns a .909 save percentage this season, but his .918 career save percentage indicates he’s better than what he’s shown this year. The Russian netminder has heated up of late, recording at least a .930 save percentage in three of his last four starts. If he does, in fact, return to form, Tampa Bay’s third-ranked offense and second-ranked power play could carry them to a third straight division title.

Verdict

Boston is a safe bet in the latest odds, but the better value lies with Tampa. They’re picking up their play of late and advanced stats indicate this may just be the beginning.

Toronto is looking like an improved team under Sheldon Keefe, but their defense and goaltending situation remains a question mark.

Boston showed some vulnerability with a five-game losing streak and Tampa’s odds may be the lowest we see them all season. Take a gamble and bet on this very talented team getting it together in the second half of the season.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (+600)