Leafs Stanley Cup Odds Worsen Ahead of First-Round Playoff Matchup With Bruins

• The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the Stanley Cup Playoffs at +1900 to win it all
• They kick off the Stanley Cup playoffs Thursday night in Boston
• Can the Leafs salvage their season? Do they present any value?

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, the only thing that matters is that they’re in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The season started with so much promise, landing John Tavares to open free agency. At that point, he had them among the odds-on favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

While Toronto enjoyed an electric start, things have fallen off. At one point they were +470 as Cup favorites. Now it’s a stretch if you want to put them among the top 10.

The #StanleyCup Playoffs are finally here! #NHLTonight pic.twitter.com/1qVLBQgfi4

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) April 7, 2019

With the Leafs set to open the first round Thursday at 7pm in Boston, they look like the long-shot they are.

2019 Stanley Cup odds

*Odds taken 04/06/2019

The Tampa Bay Lightning ran away with the NHL’s regular season, just like Nikita Kucherov ran away with the scoring title.

Behind them are the Calgary Flames. Despite being the top team in the Western Conference, they still have questions in net.

After Frederik Andersen, who absolutely needs to show up for the Leafs to beat the Bruins?

— Platinum Seat Ghosts (@3rdPeriodSuits) April 5, 2019

After that, it’s a slew of powerful Western teams that got grouped together, and the defending champs the Washington Capitals. With the NHL’s playoff structure, they’re an important team to keep in mind.

In the bottom half of the Stanley Cup odds? The Maple Leafs.

Goaltending has sunk Leafs in Stanley Cup odds

Toronto’s goalies haven’t been any good lately.

Sure, lots of people lay this at the feet of Garret Sparks, but Frederik Andersen hasn’t been any better.

Sparks vs Andersen since March 1st

Neither has done the job.

Now we did predict a late-season swoon in our Vezina odds, and that was thanks to injuries on defense.

We didn’t see it being that drastic.

MEANINGFUL or MEANINGLESS? Frederik Andersen has lost 7 of his last 10 games allowing 35 goals. #LeafsForever #NHL

— Clint 'Bubba' O'Neil (@BubbaCHCH) April 7, 2019

Freddie finished with the fourth-worst GAA of any goalie with 10 or more starts after March 1st. Combined, Toronto gave up the third-most goals in the league after Buffalo and Philadelphia.

Leafs’ second half has left questions

Toronto was one of the best teams in the first half of the season…that’s why what happened in the second half is so troubling.

Leafs Season Splits

The Leafs weird spring swoon has a lot of uninspiring numbers to go with it.

For one, they have just seven wins since the beginning of March. While good teams had more, so did Edmonton, Vancouver, Florida, and Anaheim.

The 18 points they earned over that stretch has them tied with a handful of other teams, but it’s also more than just seven other teams in the league.

Are the Leafs’ long Stanley Cup odds worth it?

If you’re looking for value the Capitals, at +1000, have an easier path through the East than Tampa. In the West, the Sharks (+1200) and Predators (+1200) offer good value too.

We don’t see it with the Leafs.

Overall, Toronto’s outlook isn’t as bleak a picture as we’ve painted. If the NHL had a different playoff format? They’d be worthy of consideration.

But the Leafs were 2-6 against the Bruins and Lightning this year. They were outscored 31-18 in the process.

Those wearing blue colored glasses will bet Toronto as a long shot. If you’re more conservative, it’s always worth it to see how the first round plays out.

The likely scenario? Ending that lengthy Stanley Cup drought will have to wait a year.