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Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NHL Hockey

May 5, 2022 · 10:08 AM PDT

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Corey Perry celebrates a win with goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy
May 4, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Corey Perry (10) greets Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) after a win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in game two of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning are slight -115 home favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup opening-round series on Friday, May 6
  • Bettors can access a -105 betting line on the underdog Maple Leafs
  • See the Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 odds and best bets

As the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning sit all even at 1-1 in their Stanley Cup first-round series, the significance of Game 3 cannot be understated.

While on the surface whoever wins will only be up 2-1 in the best-of-seven set, the reality is that the loser of Game 3 will need to win three of the next four games in order to continue playing in the NHL postseason.

Oddsmakers are leaning toward the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, albeit ever so slightly. Tampa Bay is a -115 home favorite in Game 3. Underdog Toronto is sitting with a betting line of -105. The Leafs are 7-2 straight up in Game 3 over their last nine playoff series.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) O 6.5 (+100) -105
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+205) U 6.5 (-120) -115

Odds as of May 5th at Caesars Sportsbook.

Puck drop is set for 7:30 pm ET on Friday, May 6 at Amalie Arena. TBS is carrying the broadcast.

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Lightning vs Leafs NHL Betting Trends

Even though they are first-round opponents, NHL betting lines show that the Leafs and Lightning are rated 2-3 in the Eastern Conference odds. Toronto is +475 and Tampa Bay is +525.

Based on the NHL betting lines, the implied probability of victory in Game 3 for the favored Lightning is 53.49%. However, the underdog Leafs aren’t all that far behind with an IP of victory of 51.22% A $10 wager on the Maple Leafs on the moneyline would bring a payout of $19.50.

Tampa Bay vs Toronto Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Puck Line Over/Under
12/9/2021 Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 TB TB Over
4/4/2022 Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 6 TOR TOR Over
4/21/2022 Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 1 TB TB Over
5/2/2022 Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 0 TOR TOR Under
5/4/2022 Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 TB TB Over

Both Toronto (#1, 27.3%) and Tampa Bay (#8, 23.9%) operated with top-10 power plays during the regular season. However, it’s the Lightning who are striking with the man advantage in this series. Tampa Bay potted three power-play goals in Game 2 and is clicking at 25% with the man advantage.

The Leafs are just at 10%. Two of Tampa Bay’s Game 2 power-play tallies were registered thanks to Toronto’s Wayne Simmonds. He took two needless after-the-whistle penalties in the midst of scrums. You have to wonder how that will impact the veteran forward’s chance of maintaining his spot in the lineup for Game 3.

Toronto vs Tampa Bay Injury Report

Forward Michael Bunting (lower body), a top contender in the Calder Trophy odds, returned to action in Game 2 and scored Toronto’s first goal. Defenseman Rasmus Sandin (knee) and goalie Petr Mrazek (groin) are out for the Leafs.

Tampa Bay is without defenseman Brent Seabrook. He’s on IR with a shoulder injury.

Vasilevskiy Hits the Big 50

Jack Campbell posted Toronto’s first home playoff shutout in two decades in Game 1. However, the lamp lit behind him five times during Game 2.

It was the 18th time in his past 25 games that Campbell has allowed three or more goals against.

Leafs vs Lightning Projected Starting Goalies

Team Goalie Record SV% GAA
Maple Leafs Jack Campbell 1-1 .914 2.56
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy 1-1 .879 4.02

Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy is Mr Bounceback in the playoffs. He hasn’t lost consecutive decisions over his past 50 postseason starts.

Vasilevskiy recorded his 50th career playoff victory in Game 2. He became the 22nd goalie all-time and the fifth active NHL goalie to reach the milestone. Since entering the NHL in 2014-15, Vasilevskiy has more playoff victories than any other NHL goalie.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 3 Prediction

Tampa Bay hasn’t won consecutive games against Toronto since 2019. The two teams have alternated victories over the past six games and based on the pattern, it’s Toronto’s turn to shine.

At Tampa Bay, the Leafs are 3-1 SU in the past four games but 3-4 SU over the last seven games. However, their Game 3 success rate bodes well for the Leafs. And Toronto has won the last two times the club has played Game 3 of a series on the road.

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML  (-105)

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