Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are slight -115 home favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup opening-round series on Friday, May 6
- Bettors can access a -105 betting line on the underdog Maple Leafs
- See the Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 odds and best bets
As the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning sit all even at 1-1 in their Stanley Cup first-round series, the significance of Game 3 cannot be understated.
While on the surface whoever wins will only be up 2-1 in the best-of-seven set, the reality is that the loser of Game 3 will need to win three of the next four games in order to continue playing in the NHL postseason.
Oddsmakers are leaning toward the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, albeit ever so slightly. Tampa Bay is a -115 home favorite in Game 3. Underdog Toronto is sitting with a betting line of -105. The Leafs are 7-2 straight up in Game 3 over their last nine playoff series.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds
| Team | Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-250) | O 6.5 (+100) | -105 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 (+205) | U 6.5 (-120) | -115 |
Odds as of May 5th at Caesars Sportsbook.
Puck drop is set for 7:30 pm ET on Friday, May 6 at Amalie Arena. TBS is carrying the broadcast.
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Lightning vs Leafs NHL Betting Trends
Even though they are first-round opponents, NHL betting lines show that the Leafs and Lightning are rated 2-3 in the Eastern Conference odds. Toronto is +475 and Tampa Bay is +525.
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY WHAT A SAVE 😱#StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/1OAirUDJti
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 5, 2022
Based on the NHL betting lines, the implied probability of victory in Game 3 for the favored Lightning is 53.49%. However, the underdog Leafs aren’t all that far behind with an IP of victory of 51.22% A $10 wager on the Maple Leafs on the moneyline would bring a payout of $19.50.
Tampa Bay vs Toronto Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | Moneyline | Puck Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/9/2021 | Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 | TB | TB | Over |
| 4/4/2022 | Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 6 | TOR | TOR | Over |
| 4/21/2022 | Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 1 | TB | TB | Over |
| 5/2/2022 | Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 0 | TOR | TOR | Under |
| 5/4/2022 | Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 | TB | TB | Over |
Both Toronto (#1, 27.3%) and Tampa Bay (#8, 23.9%) operated with top-10 power plays during the regular season. However, it’s the Lightning who are striking with the man advantage in this series. Tampa Bay potted three power-play goals in Game 2 and is clicking at 25% with the man advantage.
Wayne Simmonds: {We took too many penalties. I was the culprit of that. I took two, they scored two and we lost by two.”
— David Alter (@dalter) May 5, 2022
The Leafs are just at 10%. Two of Tampa Bay’s Game 2 power-play tallies were registered thanks to Toronto’s Wayne Simmonds. He took two needless after-the-whistle penalties in the midst of scrums. You have to wonder how that will impact the veteran forward’s chance of maintaining his spot in the lineup for Game 3.
Toronto vs Tampa Bay Injury Report
Forward Michael Bunting (lower body), a top contender in the Calder Trophy odds, returned to action in Game 2 and scored Toronto’s first goal. Defenseman Rasmus Sandin (knee) and goalie Petr Mrazek (groin) are out for the Leafs.
MICHAEL BUNTING 🚨
1ST PLAYOFF GOAL! pic.twitter.com/AaMbHU9CIY
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 5, 2022
Tampa Bay is without defenseman Brent Seabrook. He’s on IR with a shoulder injury.
Vasilevskiy Hits the Big 50
Jack Campbell posted Toronto’s first home playoff shutout in two decades in Game 1. However, the lamp lit behind him five times during Game 2.
Not ideal goaltending from Jack Campbell here, Victor Hedman puts Tampa bay up 1-0 pic.twitter.com/YnPaM309PT
— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) May 5, 2022
It was the 18th time in his past 25 games that Campbell has allowed three or more goals against.
Leafs vs Lightning Projected Starting Goalies
| Team | Goalie | Record | SV% | GAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | Jack Campbell | 1-1 | .914 | 2.56 |
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 1-1 | .879 | 4.02 |
Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy is Mr Bounceback in the playoffs. He hasn’t lost consecutive decisions over his past 50 postseason starts.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (31 saves) recorded his 50th career playoff win and joined elite company as the @TBLightning evened their series at one game apiece. #StanleyCup#NHLStats: https://t.co/SkbL0CFVQP pic.twitter.com/liUiy4SjSJ
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) May 5, 2022
Vasilevskiy recorded his 50th career playoff victory in Game 2. He became the 22nd goalie all-time and the fifth active NHL goalie to reach the milestone. Since entering the NHL in 2014-15, Vasilevskiy has more playoff victories than any other NHL goalie.
Lightning vs Leafs Game 3 Prediction
Tampa Bay hasn’t won consecutive games against Toronto since 2019. The two teams have alternated victories over the past six games and based on the pattern, it’s Toronto’s turn to shine.
At Tampa Bay, the Leafs are 3-1 SU in the past four games but 3-4 SU over the last seven games. However, their Game 3 success rate bodes well for the Leafs. And Toronto has won the last two times the club has played Game 3 of a series on the road.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML (-105)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
