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NY Rangers’ Playoff Odds Have Sunk from -170 to -110 over the Last Ten Days

Can Henrik Lundqist get the Rangers back to the playoffs? Photo from @ranger_fanly (Twitter)
  • The New York Rangers odds to make the playoffs have shifted drastically over the past 10 days
  • It appears sharp bettors are taking advantage of an aggressive line
  • The Rangers missed the playoffs by 20 points last season and will again rely heavily on aging goalie Henrik Lundqvist

Sharp money has shifted the odds the New York Rangers make the playoffs but there’s still time for you to take advantage of an ambitious price at BetOnline.

A week and a half ago the Rangers were listed at -170 to make the playoffs and that’s been bet all the way down to -110.

Metro Division Odds to Make/Miss Playoffs

Team Odds to Make Playoffs (BetOnline) Odds to Miss Playoffs (BetOnline)
Washington Capitals -200 +170
New York Islanders -170 +150
Pittsburgh Penguins -200 +170
Carolina Hurricanes +100 -120
Columbus Blue Jackets +165 -190
Philadelphia Flyers -125 +105
New York Rangers -110 -110
New Jersey Devils -160 +140

*Odds taken 09/06/19

NHL playoff odds are always a moving target, but that is a drastic change over a relatively short period of time. It’s the NHL quiet season and it certainly seems like some bettors have taken advantage of a skewed line. Here’s some evidence that shows why jumping on the ‘NO’ option before it’s too late is the smart play.

Henrik Lundqvist Provides Big Problem for Rangers

Stop me if you’ve heard this story line before – a New York team being held back by a commitment to an aging superstar. The Henrik Lundqvist saga isn’t much different than the Eli Manning one the Giants are going through. Lundqvist is 37 years old (one year younger than Manning) and when looking at his stats the last 3 years it’s hard to find hope heading into the 2020 season.

Season Goals Against Average Save Percentage
2016-17 2.74 .910
2017-18 2.98 .915
2018-19 3.07 .907

Cutting bait with a franchise legend is never easy as both the Rangers and Giants have shown but this in particular doesn’t look like it’s going to end well. Both Lundqvist’s GAA and SV% were career worsts in 2019 and it’s not often you find a goalie who posts a bounce back season in his late 30’s. He looks great off the ice, but expect him to struggle on it this season.

Will Flashy Roster Moves Result in Wins?

The Rangers missed the playoffs by 20 points this year and analytics from The Athletic show they have an 81% chance of missing them again this year.

To put that in perspective, their chances are slightly worse than the woeful Edmonton Oilers. Worse still, they have a 34% chance of finishing last in the division.

New York added 3 key pieces this year in forward Artemi Panarin and Kaapo Kakko, along with defenseman Jacob Trouba. The moves stole headlines but the likelihood they result in enough wins to reach the playoffs is slim. Panarin has averaged 80 points per season the last 4 years and while he’s a great piece to have, his $11.642 million price tag doesn’t match the production.

Kakko will be a great rookie, possibly even a Calder Trophy contender, but he’s still a rookie and likely won’t produce to the point he would need to. Jacob Trouba was a great addition but he joins a back end that currently includes Adam Fox, Libor Hajek and Anthony Deangelo. The additions were flashy but the Rangers are still missing the depth and substance to make it to the playoffs.

Final Verdict

No more than five teams can make it from a division and the odds makers now have five other Metro Division teams listed ahead of them.

I don’t see how even with the additions, the Rangers will surpass the Capitals, Islanders, Penguins, Flyers or Devils to make the playoffs. Bet on Lundqvist to continue his regression and New York to end up in the lottery again next year.

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