Overs Are 7-0 in Lightning Games & 4-1 in Bruins Games When Teams Meet on March 3

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Alex Killorn
Tampa Bay Lightning forward Alex Killorn has 24 goals so far in the 2019-20 season. Photo by Lisa Gansky (Wiki Commons).
  • Overs are 7-0 in the Lightning’s last seven games and 4-1 in the Bruins’ last five games
  • Boston is 0-4 in the last four meetings between the teams and 0-5 in last five games in Tampa Bay
  • See the odds, analysis and best bet for Tuesday’s contest below

The Atlantic Division crown is very much in play this week as the first-place Boston Bruins and second-place Tampa Bay Lightning play a home-and-home series with just seven points separating them and Tampa with a game in hand.

The first game is taking place in Tampa on Tuesday, with the return match Saturday in Boston, and with two of the top offenses in the NHL taking the ice, goals are almost guaranteed. “Overs” are 7-0 in Tampa’s last seven games, while the “Overs” are also 4-1 in Boston’s last five, and there is really not much separating two of the NHL’s best teams in the Tampa vs. Boston odds.

Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Bruins +1.5 (-245) -105 O 6.0 (-105)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+205) -115 U 6.0 (-115)

Odds taken on Mar. 3.

Lightning Dominance

Tampa has had a tough time of it lately, punctuating an 11-game win streak with a season-high four-game losing run before Saturday’s 4-2 win over the Calgary Flames. However, one thing that will give Nikita Kucherov and Co. confidence as they take the ice will be the Lightning’s recent record against Boston.

The Lightning have won four straight against the Bruins, as well as the last four contests against Boston at Tampa’s Amalie Arena. The last four games against the Bruins, in particular, have been goal-filled affairs, with an average of 7.5 goals per game.

Tampa’s Last Four Games Against Boston

Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins

3 12/13/19 2
4 10/18/19 3
6 4/6/19 3
5 3/26/19 4

Offensive Firepower

With 230 goals so far, Tampa is averaging 3.53 goals per game, while Boston’s average is slightly lower, at 3.30 goals per game. However, the Bruins do possess one of the most lethal goalscorers in the game in the shape of David Pastrnak, whose 47 goals currently lead the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the NHL’s top goalscorer.

Meanwhile, while Tampa has arguably a far more diversified offense than Boston, spreading the scoring burden across different lines, the team was dealt a blow recently with news that Steven Stamkos, the team’s captain and second-leading goalscorer with 29, will miss the remainder of the regular season with a core muscle injury.

The Lightning will be hoping the likes of Nikita Kucherov (31 goals), Alex Killorn (24) and Brayden Point (23) can pick up the slack.

Defensive Prowess

What makes the offensive fireworks between the Bruins and Lightning all the more surprising is the star power each team possesses in net.

Assuming both teams go with their starting goaltenders, then both will have Vezina Trophy-winning netminders guarding the pipes. Boston’s Tuukka Rask has the best goals-against-average of regular goaltenders at 2.16, while Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy’s is hardly shabby at 2.62. Either way, if both play up to their potential, it will be hard for the “Overs” to continue their dominance for either team.

And the defensive play in front of them is some of the best in the league, too, with the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Victor Hedman leading the blueline for the Bruins and Lightning respectively. The Bruins have conceded an NHL-low 167 goals so far for a 2.53 goals-per-game average, while Tampa’s defense is running at a 2.82 goals-against clip.

Picks: Over 6.0 (-105) and Tampa Bay (-115)

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