Paul vs Chevez Jr. Prop Bets & Parlay Picks for Saturday’s Fight

• Paul vs Chevez prop bets and parlay options are available for Saturday’s fight
• Our favorite prop targets Paul winning by KO/TKO in the championship rounds
• Check out the best Paul vs Chavez Jr. props and parlay picks below

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Jake Paul vs Julio César Chávez Jr. throwdown Saturday night in LA, and the props market offers some of the best value for this boxing fight. With The Problem Child expected to dominate but Chavez Jr.’s experience keeping him upright, let’s dive into the best betting angles for Saturday’s cruiserweight showdown.

BetMGM has rolled out over 50 different prop bets for this fight, ranging from method of victory to specific round betting to knockdown scenarios. The key is finding where the odds don’t match the likely outcome, and there’s plenty of that here.

Here is a look at the bevy of Paul vs Chevez props available, plus our best bets and parlay picks.

Method of Victory Props

Odds as of June 27, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out the top US betting sites for Paul vs Chevez prop bets.

Back Paul to Secure KO/TKO

The books are split on how Paul gets it done. His decision prop sits at -110 while the KO/TKO pays +150. Given Paul’s power and Chavez Jr.’s tendency to fade late, that knockout prop offers solid value.

Paul has stopped 7 of his 11 victims, and while Chavez Jr. has only been stopped twice in 61 pro fights, Father Time catches everyone. The 39-year-old has fought just once since 2021 and looked sluggish in recent training footage. His timing appears off against sparring partners. Imagine what happens when someone’s trying to take his head off.

The cruiserweight limit also favors Paul here. He’s naturally bigger and won’t drain himself making weight, while Chavez Jr. spent his prime at middleweight and super middleweight. That extra weight takes a toll on aging legs.

• Best Bet: Paul by KO/TKO (+150)

Round Betting Props

This is where the real value lives. My prediction of a late Paul stoppage between rounds 7-9 aligns perfectly with these props:

Value on Paul in Round 7-8

Those championship round props are juicy. Chavez Jr.’s cardio has always been suspect, and carrying extra weight at cruiserweight won’t help. If Paul puts a pace on him early, the former champ could wilt down the stretch.

Individual round betting shows Paul in Round 8 at massive odds. That’s prime territory for a late stoppage against a fading opponent. Chavez Jr. has quit on the stool before. Remember his fight against Daniel Jacobs? When the going gets tough late, the rich kid in him sometimes comes out.

Paul showed patience against Tyson, measuring distance and increasing output as rounds progressed. That same approach against a gassing Chavez Jr. could lead to a stoppage between rounds 7-9, right when fatigue becomes overwhelming.

• Value Play: Paul wins in Rounds 7-8 (+800)

Knockdown Props

Paul will Knockdown Chavez

Paul to score a knockdown at -110 is basically even money. That’s great value considering his power advantage and Chavez Jr.’s diminished reflexes. Even if the fight goes the distance, Paul dropping him once seems likely.

The over 1.5 knockdowns at +225 offers a nice payout if Paul puts him down multiple times. Worth a sprinkle given the late-fight scenario we’re targeting. Chavez Jr. still has that dangerous left hook, but Paul’s improving defense and youth should keep him safe.

DraftKings even has specific knockdown props like “Chavez to be knocked down 2+ times” at +250. If you believe in the late stoppage angle, multiple knockdowns become very possible as Chavez Jr. fades.

• Prediction: Paul to score a knockdown (-110)

Distance Props

Will Paul vs Chavez go the Distance?

The “doesn’t go 10 rounds” at +110 aligns with our late stoppage prediction. If you believe Paul gets him out of there in rounds 7-9, this prop offers plus money on that scenario.

The “within 7 rounds” at +200 provides coverage if Paul catches him earlier than expected. But given Chavez Jr.’s experience and Paul’s patient approach lately, I’m targeting the later rounds where fatigue becomes the deciding factor.

BetMGM’s over/under props get granular. You can bet whether it ends within 2 rounds (+1200), 3 rounds (+800), all the way up to 8 rounds (+160). The sweet spot for value remains those 7-8 round props.

Final Decision Props

If you’re hedging the late KO angle, these decision props provide coverage:

Paul by unanimous decision at +150 isn’t bad if Chavez Jr.’s pride keeps him upright through 10. But I’m sticking with the stoppage. The split decision at +600 seems unlikely. If Paul doesn’t stop him, he should win clearly on all cards.

These props essentially let you bet on how dominant Paul will be if it goes to the judges. Given the skill gap and activity level difference, unanimous decision makes the most sense as a hedge.

Best Paul vs Chavez Jr. Props Parlay

Here’s my favorite parlay for Saturday’s prop market:

• 3-Leg Parlay (+550 odds):

• Paul to win (-700)
• Paul to score a knockdown (-110)
• Fight doesn’t go 10 rounds (+110)

This parlay targets the most likely scenario: Paul wins, drops Chavez Jr. at least once, and finishes him before the final bell. A $100 bet returns $550 if all three legs hit.

For those wanting more risk and reward, add “Paul wins in Rounds 7-8” (+800) to create a 4-leg parlay with massive payout potential. Even a small $25 bet could return over $1,000 if Paul stops him in those championship rounds.

Skip the -700 moneyline and dive into these props for real value. Chavez Jr. has the experience to survive early, but once fatigue sets in around round 7, The Problem Child turns up the heat for the stoppage. With over 50 props available at BetMGM and other books, there’s no reason to lay massive juice when better opportunities exist.