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Penguins vs Canadiens Updated Series Odds & Prediction

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 2:34 PM PDT

Travis Green next NHL head coach fired
Vancouver Canucks head coach Travis Green stands behind his bench during the first period of an NHL hockey game against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Pittsburgh, Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2019. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
  • In the NHL’s upcoming play-in round, the No. 5 Penguins and No. 12 Canadiens will face off in a best-of-five series starting Aug. 1
  • The Penguins were -200 favorites in late May, but they’re even steeper favorites now
  • Check out the odds, an update on the matchup, and a series pick in the article below

In less than a week, the No. 5 Pittsburgh Penguins and No. 12 Montreal Canadiens will embark on a best-of-five play-in series in Toronto, kicking off Game 1 at 8:00 pm ET on Aug. 1.

Of all the play-in series, no team is receiving a shorter price in the NHL odds than the Penguins.

Penguins vs Canadiens Series Odds

Team Odds to Win Series
Pittsburgh Penguins -215
Montreal Canadiens +174

Odds taken July 27.

At those odds, are the Penguins still the right pick from a value perspective? Or can the Canadiens cash in on the short series?

Head-to-Head Results

In three matchups this season, Pittsburgh won twice (once in overtime) and Montreal won once. The goal differential was plus-one in favor of the Penguins.

That seems awfully close, but keep in mind that Montreal’s 4-1 win came without Penguins captain Sidney Crosby in the lineup. As deep as the Penguins are, Crosby still makes a world of difference.

Crosby only played in one of the games against Montreal this season, tallying three assists in a 4-1 win. And speaking of the Penguins’ captain…

Crosby Skating with Team after Absence

He’s back! Crosby exited an intrasquad scrimmage on July 18 for an undisclosed reason (the NHL has locked down injury/illness news for the time being) but he was back skating with the team during their first workout in the Toronto bubble on Monday.

Crosby had been on the ice once in Pittsburgh a few days prior, but Monday marked his first time re-joining the team. It’s a great sign that he’ll be good to go for the series.

2023 NHL Eastern and Western Conference Title Odds Tracker
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Romanov a No-Go

To help slow the Penguins’ potent offense, the Canadiens were probably hoping to insert top prospect Alexander Romanov into their lineup. Montreal signed Romanov, its 2018 second-round pick, earlier this month and he has joined the team for workouts.

But by signing Romanov now, after the season went on pause, the youngster won’t be eligible to participate in the play-in series. His contract will instead begin in 2020-21.

Still, the Canadiens are one of the league’s statistical darlings. Despite having just a 50.37 goals percentage at 5-on-5, Montreal is near the top of the NHL in shooting percentage (second) and expected goals percentage (second).

Can Price Steal Series?

The brightest source of hope for the Canadiens is that a hot goalie — namely, Carey Price — can steal this best-of-five series.

The former Vezina winner has been the rock in net for Montreal the past dozen years, playing in all 60 of their playoff games during that span.

But this has been a trying year for Price, who has been essentially league average in save percentage (.909) and goals against average (2.79). He also has led NHL goalies in total minutes played for a second consecutive year.

Price also hasn’t been his best self in his career against the Penguins, with a 13-14-5 record, .907 save percentage and 2.95 goals against average.

If Montreal wins, Price could certainly be the main reason why. But banking on a goalie who is overworked and facing a team he hasn’t succeeded against historically is not a recommended strategy.

Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins (-215)

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