Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals (Game 1): Preview & Prediction
Familiar foes will renew their very lopsided playoff rivalry tonight when the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena (7:00 PM ET, April 26).
The Penguins, who ousted the Flyers in six games in round one, have beaten the Caps in the second round each of the last two seasons en route to the cup. The Capitals, meanwhile, are in search of their first playoff series win over Pittsburgh since 1994 (1-9 all time) and their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Will history repeat itself or will Alex Ovechkin and company finally get over the Pingu-shaped hurdle that stands in their way? Below, find the opening moneyline, puckline, and over/under, plus key stats, injury news, and final score prediction.
Straight-Up Playoff Prediction Record: 8-2
Moneyline Playoff Prediction Profits ($100 wagers): +$378.00
Opening Odds
| MONEYLINE | PUCKLINE | O/U GOALS |
|---|---|---|
| PENGUINS (+111) | PENGUINS +1.5 (-260) | OVER 6.0 (EVEN) |
| CAPITALS (-123) | CAPITALS -1.5 (+220) | UNDER 6.0 (-110) |
Like the Penguins, the Capitals ended their first-round series in six, roaring back from an 0-2 hole to win four straight against Columbus. Ovechkin came up huge in the decisive Game 6, notching two second-period goals to give Washington a lead it would never relinquish. Braden Holtby, who was benched in favor of Philipp Grubauer to start the series, continued his feel-good comeback story, stopping 35 of 38 shots.
Defenseman John Carlson leads the team in scoring after six games (1 G, 9 PTS), while Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov each have eight points, apiece.
The Penguins never found themselves in a series hole against Philadelphia, but they did mount their own impressive comeback in Game 6, erasing Philly’s 4-2 lead thanks (mostly) to four straight goals from Jake Guentzel, who’s now tied for the playoff scoring lead with teammate Sidney Crosby (6 G, 13 PTS).
The Pens went on to win 8-5 despite a suspect performance from starter Matt Murray, who enters round two with a mediocre .911 SV% after a very up-and-down round one.
Key Injuries & Absences
| PENGUINS | CAPITALS |
|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin: Out (LBI) | Andre Burakovsky: Out (UBI) |
| Carl Hagelin: Out (face) |
Malkin, Pittsburgh’s leading scorer in the regular season (42 G, 98 PTS), skated on Wednesday but will miss his second straight game with a lower-body injury. It’s a huge blow for Pittsburgh; the one-two punch of Crosby-Malkin down the middle is what has set them apart in the playoffs. Without Malkin, they are not the proverbial “matchup nightmare” they otherwise are.
Hagelin (10 G, 31 PTS) is nursing a facial injury after Claude Giroux caught him up high in Game 6 against the Flyers.
Without Malkin, [the Penguins] are not the proverbial “matchup nightmare” they otherwise are.
Burakovsky remains the only injured Capital. Washington played the last four games of round one without him and, thus, are 4-0 sans Burakovsky and 0-2 with him.
Regular Season Team Stats
| PENGUINS | STATISTIC | CAPITALS |
|---|---|---|
| 47-29-60 (17-20-4 Away) | REGULAR-SEASON RECORD | 50-20-12 (28-8-5 Home) |
| +22 | GOAL DIFFERENCE | +20 |
| 272 | GOALS FOR | 259 |
| 250 | GOALS AGAINST | 239 |
| 52.41% (5th) | FENWICK % | 47.35% (28th) |
| 26.2% (1st) | POWER PLAY % | 22.5% (5th) |
| 80.0% (17th) | PENALTY KILL % | 80.3% (15th) |
| .903% (T 23rd) | TEAM SV% | .909% (T 13th) |
Betting Results & Trends*
| PENGUINS | TREND | CAPITALS |
|---|---|---|
| Won 2 | WIN/LOSS STREAK | Won 4 |
| 7-3 | LAST 10 | 7-3 |
| 41-47 | PUCKLINE RECORD | 42-46 |
| 47-33-2 | OVER/UNDER SPLIT | 46-34-2 |
| Over 1 | OVER/UNDER STREAK | Over 2 |
*Statistics in this table include playoffs but date back to regular season.
Score Prediction
| PENGUINS | 3 |
| CAPITALS | 5 |
This year’s Capitals team is not the same as years past. Once an offensive juggernaut, Barry Trotz has instilled a more defensive-minded approach in his bunch. While it didn’t result in the same sort of regular-season success as last year (when they won the President’s Trophy), it may have set them up better for a long playoff run. They are comfortable winning close, tight-checking 2-1 games — like Trotz’s Predators teams of yore — yet can still keep up in a track meet when the situation calls (see Game 6 vs Columbus).
With Malkin out of the lineup, the Penguins lose one of their biggest advantages: center depth. The teams split their regular-season meetings this year (2-2) and Malkin had four points (2 G, 2 A) in Pittsburgh’s 7-4 win in February.
With Malkin out of the lineup, the Penguins lose one of their biggest advantages: center depth.
The Penguins will still be icing one of the most potent offenses in the league tonight. Crosby, Guentzel, and Phil Kessel are all proven playoff performers. But don’t expect them to have the same ease putting the puck past Holtby (.932 playoff SV%) as they did against Michael Neuvirth (.847 playoff SV%) and Brian Elliott (.856 playoff SV%).
The Caps are deserving home favorites (and the -1.5 puckline is awfully tempting).
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
