Roman Josi’s Norris Trophy Odds Improve from +2500 to +1800
- Sharks defensemen Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson lead the 2020 Norris Trophy odds
- The Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi has risen to +1800
- Is Josi a good bet to take home the award for the first time?
When handing out the Norris Trophy, the qualifications can sometimes be subjective.
The award is designed to go to the best overall defensemen, one who excels in all facets of the game. Some voters get drawn in by point totals and vote for the best offensive defenseman. Others try to over-correct, ignoring points and focusing on defense.
At the top of the latest odds, previous winners dominate. All six of the favorites have won the award before. The top-three non-winners are John Klingberg, John Carlson, and Roman Josi. With the season just around the corner (Oct. 2nd), who’s the best bet?
2019/20 Norris Trophy Odds
| Player | 2018/19 Total Points | 2018/19 Norris Voting % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns, SJS | 83 | 42.11 | +450 |
| Erik Karlsson, SJS | 45 | 0.23 | +600 |
| Victor Hedman, TB | 54 | 34.21 | +650 |
| PK Subban, NJD | 31 | N/A | +1100 |
| Mark Giordano, CGY | 74 | 98.83 | +1200 |
| Drew Doughty, LAK | 45 | N/A | +1400 |
| John Klingberg, DAL | 45 | N/A | +1400 |
| John Carlson, WSH | 70 | 32.22 | +1800 |
| Roman Josi, NSH | 56 | 4.80 | +1800 |
| Alex Pietrangelo, STL | 41 | N/A | +2000 |
| Seth Jones, CBJ | 46 | 2.34 | +2000 |
| Kris Letang, PIT | 56 | 8.48 | +2200 |
*Odds taken 09/25/2019
Sitting at the top of our Norris Trophy odds tracker are Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns of the San Jose Sharks. The two have won the award three times between them.
Josi’s is the only name that’s seen considerable improvement on the tracker during the offseason. So could this be the year for the 29-year-old?
Where Roman Josi Falls Among NHL’s Best
Josi finished seventh in Norris voting last year, but after the top five, there was a steep drop off.
It’s not really Josi’s fault, however, as his numbers held up well. Josi had the fourth-highest defensive point shares among the top-ten. While he trailed the pack in counting stats (goals, assists, +/-), his Fenwick percentage was just shy of Victor Hedman and better than John Carlson and Morgan Rielly.
Roman Josi, on the other hand, is absolutely coming for the Norris this year, defensive cost be damned lol pic.twitter.com/SZySPKJifD
— Bryan Bastin (@BryanBastin) September 18, 2019
Here are how some of Josi’s analytics stack up against 2018/19’s top group.
2018/19 Analytics Comparison
| Player | Corsi For% | Fenwick % | oiGF | oiGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi | 51.8 | 51.7 | 82 | 71 |
| Kris Letang | 53.5 | 53.7 | 81 | 62 |
| Morgan Rielly | 51.7 | 50.6 | 115 | 87 |
| John Carlson | 51.1 | 51.4 | 106 | 85 |
| Victor Hedman | 51.9 | 51.9 | 74 | 56 |
| Brent Burns | 56.8 | 55.6 | 98 | 85 |
| Mark Giordano | 57.1 | 55.9 | 92 | 60 |
The Preds lost a little bit of offense when traded away PK Subban, but they should be able to off-set that internally. Signing Matt Duchene will help a power play that largely struggled last season.
Even if an almost-37-year-old Pekka Rinne starts to slow down, voters should be able to get past that if Josi’s season is in line with his 2018/19.
Could John Klingberg Bring Norris Trophy to Dallas?
While Miro Heiskanen didn’t crack the Norris odds, teammate John Klingberg did. The two were both named among the top-20 defensemen in the league by NHL.com.
The 20 best defensemen in the league 👊
What do you think? #NHLTopPlayers pic.twitter.com/YfviJQjIQ2
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) August 18, 2019
Klingberg finished last season with 45 points in 64 games, after piling up 67 in a full 82-game season the year before. Had he played a full year in 2018/19, his PPG rate would have been good enough for 58 points, or fifth among d-men.
His analytics fall in line with the other names atop the list too. Klingberg could be a good buy at +1400.
Karlsson, Klingberg Worth Norris Trophy Investments
While Josi is solid at +1800, I don’t like his chances to actually come away with the 2020 Norris Trophy. Trading PK Subban to the Devils doesn’t do anything for his ice time. Josi was already tops in even-strength and power-play TOI for the Predators.
If anything, it boosts Ryan Ellis’ odds.
https://twitter.com/loserpoints/status/1123270561046593537
We didn’t spend any time on Erik Karlsson, but the 29-year-old should be healthy. He only played in 53 games last year, but still put up 45 points and a 59.3% Corsi-For.
Klingberg should return to form, too, and could find himself as a leading candidate. He finished sixth in voting two years ago.
The Picks: Erik Karlsson (+600), John Klingberg (+1400)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
