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Maple Leafs Outside Top-10 in Updated 2020 Stanley Cup Odds, Even Before Andersen Injury

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies Frederik Andersen
If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to realize their Stanley Cup dreams, they'll need Frederik Andersen to be at his best. Photo by: David (Wiki Commons).
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs entered Monday on a three-game win streak
  • Toronto’s Stanley Cup odds currently sit outside the top ten
  • With Frederik Andersen suffering an upper-body injury, do the Leafs present any value?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been all over the place this season.

After sputtering out to a 9-10-4 start, the Leafs fired Mike Babcock. Over the next 15 games, they would go 11-4-0, good enough to be a top five team.

Now the Leafs are up to 41 points since then, running just behind the league’s best. But is it enough to put them in the Stanley Cup conversation?

2020 Stanley Cup Odds

Team Record Points Odds at MyBookie
Washington Capitals 35-13-5 75 +750
Tampa Bay Lightning 32-15-5 69 +750
Boston Bruins 31-10-12 74 +800
Colorado Avalanche 28-16-6 62 +850
Pittsburgh Penguins 33-14-5 71 +900
St. Louis Blues 31-14-8 70 +1000
Vancouver Canucks 30-18-5 65 +1500
Dallas Stars 30-18-4 64 +1600
Vegas Golden Knights 27-20-7 61 +1800
Carolina Hurricanes 30-19-3 63 +1800
Florida Panthers 29-17-5 63 +1800
Toronto Maple Leafs 28-18-7 63 +2000

Odds and standings taken Feb 3.

The Toronto Maple Leafs own the 12th-best 2020 Stanley Cup odds, which is just where the roller coaster has decided to settle.

After opening the season at +1000, they sat at +700 (on average) on October 26th. Then it was down to +1600, up to +900, and up and down again.

They slid to +2200 at the end of January, and now can’t seem to get out of the +2000 neighborhood.

Keefe Leads Toronto Maple Leafs Turnaround

It wasn’t much of a secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs had soured on Mike Babcock.

When he was fired on November 20 the offense was clicking (eighth in goals for) but the defense was lacking, allowing the second-most goals against.

The initial possession numbers were good, but they were allowing the fourth-most shots against, and the fifth-most high-danger chances against.

Maple Leafs’ Offense Since Nov. 20

Stat
VS
NHL Rank

115 Goals For 2nd
88 Goals Against 10th
51.9% Corsi Percentage 8th
51.57% Fenwick Percentage 9th
52.94% High Danger Chances % 7th
1.010 PDO 11th

Since then, there’s been a gradual improvement in shots against (12th-most) and significant ground made in high-danger chances allowed (14th-most).

But while those numbers have improved, the play in net has fallen behind.

Injury to Andersen Could Doom Toronto Maple Leafs

The biggest wrench possible was thrown into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ playoff plans on Monday night: an injury to Frederik Andersen.

And not just any injury, but the ever-mysterious upper-body injury.

Backup goalie has been the Leafs’ biggest need this season. And now it’s more important than ever that they find a goalie capable of carrying some of the starter’s share.

Michael Hutchinson’s last six games have been better than his first seven, but that’s not saying much. He allowed at least four goals in six of his first seven appearances. Including Monday, he’s allowed more than three goals just twice in seven games.

Who’s Available for Toronto Maple Leafs at Trade Deadline?

The Leafs have extremely limited cap space, so making a move for an experienced goalie could be tricky. They are also short on assets for any potential trade.

Outside of a team holding high value for Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson, the Leafs would have to dip into their prospect pool for a significant asset like Pavel Georgiev. Even then, the Leafs don’t have a 2020 first round pick. They have  a second, Columbus’ third, two fourths, and three in the final two rounds of the draft.

There are a handful of names out there, but all come with pretty significant cap hits. The lowest number belongs to Ryan Miller.

 

Other names the Leafs could target include Jimmy Howard and Robin Lehner. But they’ll need Detroit and Chicago to do them a favor to make the numbers work if they can’t open up any cap space.

No Freddie, No Value for Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs have questions on defense too, but without Andersen you have to hope that the eventual return of Morgan Rielly will be enough.

If Toronto can’t figure something out in Andersen’s absence though, it won’t matter.

The Andersen injury creates a significant question in Toronto’s crease.  And if they can’t figure out a band-aid solution until Andersen is healthy, they aren’t worth the money, no matter the odds.

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