Political Odds – Is Trump Saving Last Lifeboat for Himself?

Donald Trump has come alive in Dr. Frankenstein’s laboratory and is wreaking havoc, destroying beakers and scaring the bejesus out of the very people who created him.

What will Republicans do about him? What can they do?

There are few options, and all of them include crossing fingers.

Some in the party hold out hope of a My Fair Lady-like transformation in which Trump can be taught how to act somewhat normal – at least normal enough to be elected. After that, they can take it day by day and hope he never finds out where the nuclear button is hidden.

Others in the party have reached the third stage of grief, i.e. bargaining. Trump may not be the ideal president, but he would be a heck of a lot better than Hillary Clinton, they reason. Donald may think us weak and feckless, but Clinton would spend her time in the White House exacting retribution.

But perhaps there is a third way, one which will enable the Republican Party to have its cake and eat it, too. Donald Trump just flat-out quits.

Trump walking away may seem on the surface ludicrous, but that scenario is gaining a little traction among those who dig below the political surface – especially after a brutal week: Trump received serious blowback due to his racial remarks about the judge hearing his Trump University civil suit, polls now show him down double-digits nationally, and reports are that he might not be able to raise even a third of the cash that Clinton will have in the bank post-convention.

In his book The Art of the Deal, Trump talks about the importance of negotiating from a position of strength and being willing to walk away from a bad deal. And right now this looks like a very bad deal.

“You can’t con people, at least not for long,” he wrote in his book. “You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.”

Unfortunately for Trump, his own prediction appears to be coming true. The latest Reuters poll, taken in the wake of his racial remarks about the judge in the Trump U. case, shows him down a whopping 11 points to Clinton. Republicans fear a massive 1964-level defeat that could tear the party to shreds. Politico polled some key party regulars last week, and nearly 40-percent were in favor of changing convention rules immediately in order to prevent Trump from being the nominee. (No wonder he wants to replace politicians with sports figures at the GOP convention.)

Less than six weeks remain before the start of the Republican convention in late July. That gives Trump plenty of time to survey the landscape and ponder his options: (Political) suicide by mouth – saying something so outrageous that he would lose even his loyal followers? A made-up medical condition that would “force” him to quit? Being treated so “unfairly” by the party and/or the media that it’s not worth the effort?

“I’m not a masochist,” Trump told NBC News way back in October. “If I were doing poorly, if I saw myself going down … I’d go back to my business.”

In other words, he’d walk away from a bad deal.

To the odds …

2016 Presidential Election Odds

Odds Trump quits the race before the Republican convention: 20/1

Odds a former Republican presidential candidate calls on Trump to quit the race

Mitt Romney: 1/2

John McCain: 15/1

George H.W. Bush: 30/1

Bob Dole: 35/1

George W. Bush: 35/1

All of the above: 275/1

Odds Trump announces a running mate before the Republican convention: 3/2

Yes: 3/2

No: 2/3

Odds Trump’s running mate will be a …

Politician: 4/13

Businessperson: 8/1

Entertainer: 8/1

Odds to be Trump’s running mate

Newt Gingrich: 3/1

Jeff Sessions: 3/1

Chris Christie: 5/1

Ben Carson: 8/1

John  Kasich: 13/1

Carly Fiorina: 15/1

Jan Brewer: 25/1

Marc Rubio: 25/1

Mark Cuban: 100/1

Mike Tyson: 750/1

Kid Rock: 850/1

Dennis Rodman: 900/1

Odds the following sports figures end up on stage at the Republican convention …

Bob Knight: 1/5

Curt Schilling: 5/9

Tom Brady: 3/1

Tony Dungy: 4/1

Mike Ditka: 5/1

Richard Petty: 5/1

Tim Tebow: 5/1

Don King: 5/1

Roger Clemens: 8/1

Jackie Robinson (hologram): 12/1

Odds Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton before the Democratic convention: 4/9

(Photo credit: Michael Vadon (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)