Donald Trump Still Heavily Favored in 2020 US Presidential Election Odds
- The Midterms are just around the corner and the 2020 election is still on everyone’s mind
- Donald Trump remains the heavy favorite for 2020
- There are a handful of Democratic hopefuls who could make Trump a one-term President
Donald Trump is holding steady at +110 odds to be reelected in 2020. That figure can be interpreted a number of ways. It makes him the clear frontrunner, with Kamala Harris trailing in second at a very distant +1000. But it also implies that he has less than a 50% chance of being voted in to a second term, something his last three predecessors all managed.
2020 Presidential Election Average Odds
The lines for 2020 have seen very little movement over the last month, perhaps because all the focus is on the upcoming November Midterms. Still, there are a handful of movers and shakers. Ted Cruz, who is currently facing a tough battle for his Texas Senate seat, has seen his odds plummet from +12500 last month to +17000 today. And Elizabeth Warren, who is now almost definitely running in 2020, has climbed from +1700 odds in September to +1400 today.
Should we be backing the President to be reelected, or should we be looking for value in some of the long-odds candidates?
2020 Presidential Election Odds
|2020 Presidential Election Favorites||Odds|
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Donald Trump is the heavy favorite for 2020. The President’s national approval numbers are swirling around the low-40’s, but his numbers among registered Republicans are staggeringly high at 88%. His closest Republican rivals for 2020 — Vice President Mike Pence (+2100) and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (+5900) — are both staunch supporters of the President, so there’s little to suggest he’ll be primaried before the election.
The President’s national approval numbers are swirling around the low-40’s, but his numbers among registered Republicans are staggeringly high at 88%.
But there are quite a few reasons not to put your money on Trump. The former reality TV star lost the popular vote in 2016 and has seen sub-50 approval numbers since taking office, making him the most unpopular US President ever.
He’s plagued by scandal after scandal, and the looming Russia probe could potentially derail his already shaky Presidency. A lot can happen in two years — especially in Trump’s America — so there’s not much value in picking Trump at such short odds.
So who to pick?
First, let’s consider the Democratic front-runners. Since the Dems have yet to coalesce around a clear nominee, the odds are spread out among a handful of hopefuls. Kamala Harris has been the steady favorite for some time, and her lead has slightly increased over the last month. The Californian Senator currently stands at +390 odds to become the Democratic nominee and +1000 to become President.
Joe Biden was hardly being considered at the start of the year, when he faced +3300 odds, but is now among the favorites at +1500.
Elizabeth Warren was always eyeing a run in 2020, and made her bid all but official this week when she released her DNA test results to debunk Trump’s claim that she is not of Native American heritage. Joe Biden, who represents the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, is also a name to watch. He was hardly being considered at the start of the year, when he faced +3300 odds, but is now among the favorites at +1500.
My family (including Fox News-watchers) sat together and talked about what they think of @realDonaldTrump’s attacks on our heritage. And yes, a famous geneticist analyzed my DNA and concluded that it contains Native American ancestry. pic.twitter.com/r3SNzP22f8
— Elizabeth Warren (@elizabethforma) October 15, 2018
When it comes to picking Republicans, the pool is a lot smaller. Nikki Haley at +5900 is great value at the moment. The former UN Ambassador is one of the few people who has been able to serve under Trump and still have their reputation intact. She’s been able to criticize and break with the President at times while still remaining in the good graces of Trump and his supporters.
It makes sense to cover your bases with one Democrat and one Republican. At this point, it’s hard to look past both Kamala Harris (+1000) and Nikki Haley (+5900).