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Donald Trump Tariff Odds & Prediction Markets – Odds Favor New Tariffs Before March

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in Politics News

Published:


Close-up of President Donald J. Trump waving
President Donald J. Trump arrives at Trump International Golf Club, Sunday, February 3, 2019. President Trump was hosting his annual Super Bowl watch party at his golf club in West Palm Beach.
  • Kalshi has posted several prediction markets on tariffs, including when Trump will impose tariffs, and which countries will answer back
  • The current tariff odds heavily favor new tariffs before the end of the month, with the EU, Mexico and Canada the most-likely targets
  • See the full list of Donald Trump-related tariff odds and prediction markets at Kalshi

News outlets the world over are ablaze with talk of tariffs. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on several countries in his first few days in office. Monday brought something of an armistice as Trump delayed imposing tariffs on Mexico, and scheduled a follow-up call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Nonetheless, prediction site Kalshi has posted half-a-dozen tariff-focused markets, and the tariff odds almost universally favor imposition of new measures in the near future.

Donald Trump Tariff Odds & Prediction Markets

NEW TARIFFS BEFORE MARCHYESNO% CHANCE
Will Trump impose tariffs on any country before March?88¢13¢86%
WILL TRUMP IMPOSE TARIFFS ON ____ THIS YEAR?YESNO% CHANCE
European Union82¢25¢86%
Mexico75¢30¢72%
Canada70¢39¢69%
WILL ____ IMPOSE TARIFFS ON THE USA BEFORE JULY 1?YESNO% CHANCE
China97¢13¢96%
European Union85¢20¢85%
Mexico83¢23¢82%
Canada79¢26¢74%
South Africa76¢39¢65%
Brazil63¢48¢55%
South Korea57¢61¢52%
India49¢62¢42%
Japan45¢64¢40%
LARGE TARIFFS IN TRUMP’S FIRST YEARYESNO% CHANCE
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first year?63¢40¢60%

The final prop in the table, above, is worded subjectively. The relevant page at Kalshi clarifies that “[i]f … the U.S. average weighted tariff is at least 6% by Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.” So there is an objective benchmark by which the outcome will be determined.

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Prices and percentages from Kalshi at 5:20 pm ET, Feb. 3, 2025. New users can use SBD’s Kalshi promo code to get a bonus on their first purchases.

Kalshi contracts always pay out $1 or $0, depending on the final outcome. For instance, if you by “YES” on Trump imposing new tariffs before March at 88¢, and he does impose tariffs in February, you will get $1 (or 12¢ in profit) for each contract you purchased at that 88¢ price.

If he doesn’t impose tariffs in February, “YES” contracts do not return any money.

Generally, Kalshi users can sell any open contracts before the relevant prediction market settles, as long as there is a willing purchaser for said contract. This is akin to the “cashout” option at traditional sportsbooks, but since users are not selling their contracts to a sportsbook (or “the house”), such sales actually return the true equity in the contracts.

Will Trump Impose Tariffs on the USA’s Closest Neighbors and Allies?

Only three countries/regions are listed in the predictions markets for new US tariffs: the European Union and America’s neighbors to the north and south, Canada and Mexico.

Currently, the average contract price for “YES” on the European Union is a high 82¢, with the “NO” trading at just 25¢. Kalshi’s forecast, which is based on the most-recent trading activity, puts the true chances of “YES” winning this market at a massive 86%.

In sports-betting terms, the “YES” would be somewhere between a -450 and -650 favorite based on these numbers, while the “NO” would be a +300 to +400 underdog.

The prices for Mexico and Canada aren’t much different. Mexico is has the second-highest “YES” price at 75¢, with Canada trading at 72¢.

Which Countries Will Impose Tariffs on the USA?

Unsurprisingly, as Trump saber-rattles about his wide-ranging tariff plans, other countries have threatened retaliatory measures against the United States.

Kalshi’s prediction market on which countries will impose tariffs on the US set China as a heavy favorite at 96%, with the “YES” currently trading at 97¢, just two cents off the 99¢ maximum before being taken off the board.

Then comes the three trade partners discussed in the previous section: the EU (YES 85¢/NO 20¢), Mexico (YES 83¢
23¢), and Canada (79¢/26¢).

Only two of the nine countries listed in this market have a forecast below 50%: India (42%) and Japan (40%).

KALSHI TRADING
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Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.
LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: DIME
CODE: DIME
SIGNUP TODAY
GET A $10
BONUS

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Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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