Final 2024 Election Odds – Trump vs Harris Odds Heading Into Election Day

• Election day is tomorrow and the 2024 presidential election odds remain razor-thin
• Vice President Kamala Harris slightly trails former President Donald Trump
• See the final odds heading into November 5

In just 24 hours, the world will know – or at least have a good indication – whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will sit in the White House come January. The 2024 Presidential Election odds have undergone half a dozen seismic shifts since Joe Biden took office nearly four years ago. Where do they stand on the eve of election day?

Presidential Election Odds – Harris vs Trump

Trump, who was a heavy -278 favorite (73.54% implied probability) to win days before aging incumbent Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, is a -166 (62.41% IP) favorite at bet365 as of Monday, Nov. 4. Other sportsbooks and prediction sites have the gap even narrower.

At Kalshi, a prediction market that was only just permitted to offer election outcomes by a federal court in September 2024, a Trump victory is trading at 55 cents with a Harris victory at 45 cents. In sports-betting terms, that would make Trump a -122 favorite and Harris a +122 underdog.

UK betting giant William Hill has the odds at -150 (60% IP) for Trump and +130 (43.48%) for Harris.

Why Is Trump Favored?

Why is Trump favored at basically all political betting sites? The short answer is: the polls. While Harris still has a decent lead nationally and is -400 to win the popular vote (80% implied probability), the Electoral College map, and the relevant polls alongside it, suggest enough states will turn red to get Trump to the 270 electoral votes he needs to retake the White House.

At 270t0win.com, 226 electoral votes are safely blue while 219 are safely red. Seven states – and 93 electoral votes – are too close to call based on polling data. The latest polls from NateSilver.net have Trump leading in five of those seven states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and Harris in just two (Michigan and Wisconsin).

If Trump is able to carry all five and there isn’t a big upset with any of the other 219 electoral votes already penciled into the GOP column, he would end up with 287, more than enough to earn a second, non-consecutive term in the White House.

The table below shows the seven battleground states, along with their number of electoral votes, and the margin in the latest polls from Nate Silver.

Battleground States & Latest Polls

Outside of these seven primary battleground states, the closest races are likely to be in Iowa (six EVs, GOP +3.4%) and New Hampshire (four EVs, DEM +4.6%).

Does Harris Have a Shot?

Yes, consensus is that this election is still far too close to call. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania and Nevada is less than half a percent. If the Keystone State goes blue and Harris holds onto Michigan and Wisconsin (which both went Democrat in 2020), she would add 44 electoral votes to the 226 penciled into the blue column and land exactly on 270. And it’s no secret that the derogatory remarks about Puerto Ricans at a recent Trump rally could have a big benefit for Democrats in the state.

Also, if Harris takes any combination of Nevada and North Carolina/Georgia, the path to the White House for Trump becomes very narrow.

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