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Georgia Runoff Senate Elections – Live Odds and Updates

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Jan 5, 2021 · 9:20 AM PST

Jon Ossoff on stage
Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is aiming to oust incumbent David Perdue from his Senate seat in Georgia today. (Photo by John Ramspott | Flickr)
  • The runoff Senate elections in Georgia today will determine which party controls the upper chamber
  • The odds for Warnock vs Loeffler are off the board as the Democrat is poised to claim victory; Jon Ossoff is now a massive favorite over incumbent David Perdue
  • See the live odds and updates, below

Millions of Georgians cast their ballots for the runoff Senate elections early, but today (Tuesday, Jan. 5th) is officially election day.

The two races see incumbent David Perdue (GOP) trying to fend off a challenge from Jon Ossoff (Dem), while Kelly Loeffler (GOP) hopes to pull an upset over Raphael Warnock (Dem).

Here is where the odds currently stand along with live updates and commentary.

Live Odds – Georgia Senate Runoffs

Candidate Odds to Win Seat
Raphael Warnock (Dem) -4000
Kelly Loeffler (GOP) +1000
Candidate Odds to Win Seat
Jon Ossoff (Dem) -4000
David Perdue (GOP) +1000
Party Odds to Control Senate
Republican OFF
Democrat OFF

Warnock vs Loeffler odds as of 8:38 pm ET, Jan. 5th. Ossoff vs Perdue odds as of 12:20 am ET, Jan. 6th. 

Live Updates:

  • [6:47 am ET, Jan. 6th] Warnock has won his race against Loeffler. The Ossoff vs Perdue race has not been called yet, but odds are no longer up.
  • [12:20 am ET, Jan. 6th] The odds on Warnock vs Loeffler are down across the board as the reverend gets set to claim victory. Incumbent David Perdue is seeing his chances of winning reelection evaporate by the minute. He is now a +1000 underdog, while Jon Ossoff is a prohibitive -4000 favorite.
  • [10:21 pm ET] According to the oddsmakers, both Democrats have their race in the bag. Warnock is -4000 to win; Ossoff is -1200. Both are well over 90% in terms of implied probability. The live vote counts tell a different story, however.
  • [8:38 pm ET] Perdue’s momentum was short-lived. As results start to come in, Ossoff has moved to a -330 favorite. His Democratic partymate Warnock is up to -600.
  • [6:33 pm ET] David Perdue has become a -170 favorite as money pours in on the Republican incumbent.
  • [3:41 pm ET] Ossoff’s odds have improved from -120 to -130 while Perdue has faded from -110 to +100. The odds to control the Senate are now GOP (-135) and DEM (+105).
  • [3:17 pm ET] No change over the past hour.
  • [2:24 pm ET] Ossoff is back to being a small favorite (-120) over Perdue (-110). Loeffler’s odds have improved from +150 to +140 while Warnock’s faded from -200 to -185. The odds to control the Senate at the end of the day are off the board at present.
  • [12:11 pm ET] David Perdue came into election day as a slight underdog (-110 vs -120) but he is now a slight favorite (-130 vs +100) in what promises to be an extremely close race.


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