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Odds Melania Divorces Donald Trump If He Loses Set at +300

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Politics

Nov 3, 2020 · 5:58 PM PST

Donald and Melania Trump on stage together
Will Donald Trump find himself out of a job and a wife if he loses the 2020 election? Creative commons image.
  • The 2020 Presidential Election is taking place tonight (November 3rd)
  • Donald Trump appears to be more competitive than expected, although it might not be enough
  • Will Melania Trump divorce Donald if he ends up losing the election?

As we work our way through the night of the 2020 Presidential Election, odds have been posted that Donald Trump might lose twice in the coming days: lose his spot as President and then potentially lose his wife Melania Trump via divorce.

It seems unlikely but with odds posted on the board, let’s take a closer look at this betting line.

Odds Melania Divorces Trump If He Loses 2020 Election

Yes +300
No -500

Odds taken Nov. 3. Melania must file for divorce by Nov. 3rd, 2021, for Yes wagers to win.

Will What Happens On Election Night Impact Trumps?

Of course, if Trump wins the election, this prop doesn’t come into play, so we can set that aside for now. The question is whether the loss of the presidency will impact his relationship with Melania. While there have been many leaks from inside of the White House over the last four years, we haven’t heard much about the marriage or relationship.

There have been some anecdotal things stories to come out of the White House – possibly Melania not holding Trump’s hand in a photo or Trump not appearing as gentlemanly in a certain photo or two, but that’s really hard to extrapolate. At this point, the best guess – and the best guess is all we have – is that everything is fine.

Trump Has Seemingly Closed Some Of The Gap

Although lots of votes are still being tabulated, it appears that Trump will have a shot at this. At the beginning of the day, most expected a blue wave with states like Florida being in play. That hasn’t happened so far as Trump is projected to take Florida, which is one of the first early prizes of the night.

What’s been surprising is that Trump received fantastic support in Miami-Dade County, which is an area where Hillary Clinton won (over Trump) by about 30 points. At last check, Trump was losing by only about 10, which means he picked up about six figures in votes over 2016. The other interesting note is that Trump received huge support from Hispanics.

Biden still has a very clear path to victory as he mostly just needs to hold on to states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to eke out a tight win. He can also peel off Texas or North Carolina to effectively end things early. However, the early storyline is that Trump is more competitive than people thought he could be.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, it seems like Trump will have a shot to win overall – even if it seems like a big parlay he has to hit at this point – but if he does, this prop becomes moot. If he does lose the election, as the election odds might suggest, then don’t bet on Melania filing for divorce. Given what we know about them – and it’s not a ton – it doesn’t seem like a great bet.

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