Odds on Next World Leader to Leave Current Job: Trump Given Longest Odds, Trudeau Favored

• Sportsbooks have posted a prop on the next world leader to leave his/her current job
• The next Canadian Federal Election is on October 21st and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is vulnerable
• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has the second-best odds, behind Trudeau

There are a lot of debates as to which world leader will be next to leave their current job. Sportsbooks have posted odds on the subject, and Donald Trump has the longest odds of all the available options, while Justin Trudeau is favored to be out next.

What’s the best bet from the options on the board? Let’s take a closer look.

Odds on Next World Leader To Leave Current Job

*Odds taken 09/27/2019.

Trudeau Is On The Ropes

One of the reasons why Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is favored is because the Canadian Federal Election is coming up in less than a month. Trudeau has found himself mired in a number of scandals and is basically neck-in-neck with Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer, according to most polls.

Trudeau has become embroiled in a number of controversies from the racist “blackface” to a potentially criminal situation with SNC Lavalin where he put pressure on and then fired his Minister of Justice.

He’s a coin flip to go at this point, which is why he’s the favorite.

Netanyahu Looks Like He’s Safe

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have more lives than a cat. He’s now survived two elections, escaped bribery and fraud charges, and looks like he could be the long-term leader of the country.

The challenge with Netanyahu here is that, while he didn’t lose the election last week, he didn’t win either. It’s basically a deadlock and the President of Israel has tasked him with forming a government. Israel has many political parties, so he has to cobble together some kind of government.

The reality is that he’s likely to fail because there are too many parties involved and too many people who don’t want to work together. Whether it’s liberals with conservatives, progressives with ultra-orthodox, or just people who don’t want to be with Netanyahu.

He’s likely to fail and while his closest opponent, Benny Gantz, will have the same opportunity, he’s likely to fail too. That means Israel should be heading to their third election in less than a year, which in turn means Netanyahu should be fine for a little while.

Trump In Good Shape

Although there’s a lot of talk about impeachment in the United States these days, it’s nothing more than hot air. That’s not to sound biased; the reality is that either the Democrats won’t bother with articles of impeachment or, if they do, it’ll be the Republican-controlled Senate that makes the ultimate decision as to Trump’s guilt. They won’t convict.

That means Trump is safe at least until the 2020 Presidential Election and, the way things are going, he’s likely to be safe for another four years. Joe Biden has been shaky as a candidate and he’s been trending downward over the last couple of months. Elizabeth Warren is probably the current front runner but she’s a tough sell.

Warren is further left-wing than most people in the country want to go. It’ll be a tough call for Democrats whether they want to vote to remove Trump, but also bring in drastic change to the United States. At this point, as long as the economy is good, Trump is likely to be re-elected.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, I’d either be interested in betting on Boris Johnson or Trudeau. My gut feeling with Trudeau is that he’ll be re-elected simply because Scheer isn’t an inspiring candidate.

As for Johnson, he looks like he could get ousted as he can’t seem to bring the United Kingdom to a Brexit resolution. He’s my bet here.