Odds Say North Korea Most-Likely Country to Join Iran and Declare War Against US; President Trump Reinstating Draft?

• Tensions in the Middle East are on the rise following the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani
• Don’t expect for Iran and North Korea to join in a war against the United States unless they have some other big countries (like Russia or China) on their side
• With Congress controlled by Democrats and the Republicans holding the Senate and the Presidency, don’t expect anyone to agree on bringing back the draft

Tensions in the Middle East have risen since the United States targeted and killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani on Jan. 3rd, 2020. The situation was already inflamed as Iran had been instigating with various little aggressions. Now the United States has lit a big match under the powder keg.

With that in mind, what can we expect to happen next? Sportsbooks have a whole host of odds on various outcomes. They have posted props on which country(s) will join Iran to declare war on the United States; whether President Trump will reinstate the draft; and whether notoriously neutral Switzerland will choose sides in the growing conflict, among other intriguing geopolitical props.

Below, each wager is analyzed in turn.

Country To Join Iran And Declare War On United States Odds

Odds taken Jan. 6.

One of the biggest challenges for the United States with the killing of Soleimani, a known terrorist but also a respected general in Iran, is that others may see this as the perfect time to test the Red, White and Blues’ mettle elsewhere. Specifically, could this be the time that Kim Jong-un and North Korea amp up their hostility?

As you might recall, North Korea has been taking little jabs at the President as well as the United States, threatening them with a “present” for Christmas. However, nothing really came of it. With the U.S. focused on Iran and the Middle East, North Korea might see fit to move forward with their plans, thinking the U.S. is spread thin.

It’s possible that North Korea joins Iran to declare war against the United States, but it’s unlikely. Both countries know that an outright war with the US is a death wish. They would need the assistance of China or Russia to have any hope, but they’re not likely to get involved if North Korea and Iran are the aggressors.

If anything, this type of strike is going to deter them – regardless of what the media says. Under President Obama, Iran kidnapped American sailors with no repercussions. Whether you agree with Trump or not, this sends a clear-cut message to countries like Iran and North Korea that the US is not going to tolerate any shenanigans.

Keep in mind that neither of these countries has a great reputation around the world. Both Iran and North Korea are viewed as extreme dictatorships, generally speaking, and it’s tough for those types of regimes to garner a coalition. Absent of a coalition, the best they can do is minor attacks here and there.

As for the other names on this list like Yemen, Libya and Palestine, they have their own local issues to worry about before thinking about declaring war on the U.S. None of these are likely scenarios.

Odds Donald Trump Reinstates The Draft During His Presidency

Odds taken Jan. 6.

With all of the talk about a World War III, some people are wondering if President Trump will reinstate the draft. The draft has been suspended since 1973 due to intense opposition against the Vietnam War. However, all men aged 18-25 still have to sign up with the Selective Service, so the government has a database to call upon in case the draft returns.

The rules state that both Congress and the President would have to agree on legislation to bring back the draft and, let’s be honest, that’s not likely to happen. The Democrats (who control the House) and Republicans (who control the Senate) can barely agree upon anything these days.

Democrats are already up in arms with the killing of Soleimani and the potential threat of war, so they’re not going to take any steps that make a war easier for Trump. Beyond that, the United States already has 1.3 million active duty members and 800,000 more on reserve.

Unless there is a direct invasion on U.S. soil or some kind of major catastrophe, they wouldn’t need to draft more right now. I wouldn’t bet on the draft coming back.

Odds United States Sends Ground Troops Into Iran Before Trump Leaves Office

Odds taken Jan. 6.

The odds for ‘No’ are -1000 and it seems pretty clear-cut that nobody wants this right now. Trump is threatening airstrikes if Iran retaliates but he’s also stated that he doesn’t want a regime change. Typically, ground troops are required for a regime change.

Iran is also a tricky country to invade and navigate with troops. It would be a very bloody and costly invasion with high casualties and minimal gains. If things keep escalating, there might be airstrikes or missile launches, but I wouldn’t expect to see ground troops in Iran in any capacity.

Over/Under Time Until France Surrenders If They Enter The Conflict

Odds taken Jan. 6.

This prop focuses on whether the French will surrender in fewer than 47.5 days if they join the conflict. In this case, it’s probably meant that there would be some kind of a ground invasion and they would send troops, but again, contact your favorite sportsbooks’ customer service for further clarity.

But really, this prop is just sportsbooks taking a pot-shot at France, a country with a historical reputation for surrendering in times of conflict. But that is ancient history. France is not at any danger of being invaded by anyone in relation to this conflict. There is no Nazi Germany looming on its doorstep. Bet the over if anything with this prop.

Odds Switzerland Chooses A Side In United States Versus Iran Conflict

Odds taken Jan. 6.

Similar to the previous prop, this is a reference to World War II where Switzerland stayed neutral. If we’re looking at a World War III, would they take a side in this situation? Although they like to stay out of these messes, they actually might take a side here – even if the odds seem long at +750.

What’s not generally known is that Switzerland actually has had a consulate in Tehran since 1919 and has had an embassy there since 1936. Since the United States and Iran don’t really have a direct relationship, it’s Switzerland who represents the United States’ interests in Tehran.

If the war is just the United States versus Iran, the Swiss would likely stay out of it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Swiss took the side of the United States were the conflict to go global.

Odds the Ayatollah Is Alive When Trump Leaves Office

Odds taken Jan. 6.

Although this might seem like a question about assassination, there are actually more layers to this than you might think. First off, we don’t know when Trump will leave office. He could be finished at the end of 2020 as the United States Presidential Elections are in November 2020. At the same time, he could be re-elected and have four more years.

Ayatollah Khamenei cries and his voice trembles as he reads prayers for Soleimani, we have never seen him react like this before. People here say it is an indication of how sever a retribution he seeks for his right hand man. pic.twitter.com/e2iz2dhl6I

— Ali Arouzi (@aliarouzi) January 6, 2020

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 80 years old right now. He could die by natural causes in the next four years. But I would still take the “Yes” at +300, given that the 2020 election odds show the race is a toss-up between Trump and the Democrats.