Odds Say America Still Isn’t Ready for a Female President

• There are a lot of women on the 2020 Presidential Odds sheet
• So many that online sportsbooks have odds on the gender of the 2020 nominee

Look, there’s only so many ways to offer odds on the 2020 election. The betting market isn’t quite ready for voter turnout over/unders or electoral college spread betting, so we end up with a bunch of different bets that all ask the same question: who’s going to be elected in 2020?

Today, online oddsmakers waded into the mix with this click-hungry prop: what gender will the 2020 presidential election winner be?

Gender of 2020 Presidential Election Winner Odds

Some super basic math: -400 gives you an implied probability of 80%, and +300 gives an implied probability of 25%. Presumably, this leaves -5% probability that the winner of the 2020 election will be non-binary.

Rummaging through online presidential odds, you’ll find that -400 is the sum of the odds they offer on every man from Donald Trump through to Eric Garcetti. The women’s odds get you every woman up to and including Hillary Clinton. There are a lot  of women on the odds sheet, and it’s worth looking at the whole group.

2020 Presidential Election Odds for Top Female Candidates

For the full history of the 2020 Presidential odds, go to the 2020 Presidential Odds Tracker.

Kamala Harris has been among the Democratic party favorites for as long as we’ve been tracking the odds. The California senator has a lot working in her favor, and is working the Trump/Russia angle very hard in her position on the Senate Judiciary Committee. For the #Resistance crowd, she’s a pretty easy pick.

U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard just told me she’s “seriously considering” a run for president. I caught up with her tonight while she was stumping in New Hampshire pic.twitter.com/F3VY9juNT1

— Nick Grube (@nickgrube) December 2, 2018

Tulsi Gabbard scores a lot of points for just openly running for president. Most of her opponents are still in the will-they-or-won’t-they contemplative stage of running for president, while Gabbard isn’t hiding that she’s hiring staff and gearing up for a run. She also has a pretty consistent (although not flawless) progressive record and endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016.

Elizabeth Warren and Kristen Gillibrand are both popular choices, but neither has announced a 2020 run yet.

From there the list descends into apolitical celebrities like Oprah Winfrey and semi-plausible figures like Michelle Obama and Nikki Haley. 2016 runner-up Hillary Clinton is  listed as +8000 here, and as low as +3000 elsewhere.