Tracking the Latest Odds for 2028 Presidential Nominees

• The field of candidates is taking shape for the 2028 Presidential nominations as the midterm elections quickly approach
• Favorites to win the nomination have emerged for both the Republican and Democratic parties
• See the latest odds for 2028 Presidential Nominees, according to prediction markets

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The midterm elections are still a few months away, but many are already keeping an eye on who will announce their run for each party’s presidential nomination. Just a little more than seven months before the mudslinging and constant barrage of ads for candidates from both sides take over televisions and radio across the country.

Already, there is an ever-growing list of potential nominees for both the Republicans and the Democrats, many of whom have begun making some noise in the media and laying the groundwork for a campaign. With a list of options ranging from governors who have hit their term limits, members of the current administration’s Cabinet, members of Congress, and even political commentators, the build-up to the primaries will be filled with attention-grabbing headlines, rallies across the nation, and fundraising.

While voters still have months until they can participate in their party’s primary, they can voice their opinions on who should get the 2028 presidential nomination on Kalshi. Between prediction markets for the Democratic and Republican nominees, there is already almost $100 million in volume on the outcomes of these primaries.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to secure a $10 sign up bonus after making their first $10 in trades on one of these markets or one of the many other options.

Latest Odds for Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028

While there has been a clear favorite among traders on prediction markets as to who will win the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2028, there is no shortage of challengers. Other than a brief moment in May 2025, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been the favorite on the prediction market, holding a 37.2% implied win probability at his peak so far. Since comments about his struggles with dyslexia, a fact that President Trump belittled him about, his lead has slightly shrunk, but he still has nearly a 20% lead over the competition.

Sitting in second on Kalshi is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) at 8.4%. Although she has the name recognition and the background to support a run at the presidency, she may instead focus her efforts on taking over Chuck Schumer’s lead role in the Senate. Jon Ossoff is holding strong in 3rd at 6.5%, nudging out Josh Shaprio, who is sitting at 6.1%. Ossoff can make a strong case to be the nominee as a Democrat who has one in a red state, showing he can appeal to moderates and undecided voters. Shapiro was an early favorite who had watched his grasp on the market slip away after being neck and neck with Newsom in the wake of the last election. Backers of Shapiro may be waiting to see how his re-election bid for Pennsylvania Governor goes before getting involved in this prediction market.

The strongest dark-horse candidate at the moment is one who is actually leading in the polls for the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. While the polls may favor her, history does not. The last time the Democrats ran a presidential nominee who previously failed to win was in 1956 with Adlai Stevenson, who went on to lose again. Harris will have to do a lot of campaigning if she hopes to flip the script on this 70-year trend and rise from her current standings at just 4.4%.

Keep up with all the latest news for this market using our Democratic Party Presidential Nominee odds tracker.

Latest Odds for Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028

The race for the Republican Presidential Nominee appears to be tightening up, after months of JD Vance leading the pack. Until the January military operation in Venezuela, Vance held a 40% lead over the rest of the field, with Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis treading water in the single digits. However, between the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the war in Iran, Marco Rubio has seen his stock rise as he gets more screen time on the world stage.

As Vance takes a back seat during these international affairs, he has watched his implied win probability fall from 56% down to 37.3%, while Rubio has used the spotlight to climb up to 27.4%. With no clear end in sight for the war in Iran and President Trump talking about taking action in Cuba, Rubio may be able to carry this momentum and exposure to take the lead on Kalshi. For Vance, an extended war could help his chances in the long run, as he is historically anti-war, and as it drags on, people may grow tired of another endless war and place the blame on Rubio.

Ron DeSantis was seen as a strong potential candidate in 2024 for Republicans looking for a candidate other than Trump; however, he failed to gain enough traction to overtake Trump. At the start of Trump’s second term, there was some lingering favor for DeSantis in the prediction market, with him sitting at 7.3%, but that excitement has faded and left him at just 3.4% today.

Supplanting DeSantis in third is Tucker Carlson at 4.8% on Kalshi. The former Fox News host certainly has the name recognition to attract a large portion of the MAGA base who would tune in nightly to watch his show. While he lacks the background of a career politician, he is already garnering favor from political allies, like Marjorie Taylor Greene. If he were to launch a run for the nomination, he would have a distinct advantage over the rest of the candidates in that he has his own marketing machine built through his popular podcast series, “The Tucker Carlson Show” that attracts millions of views every month.

Stay in the loop with all the latest news for this market with our dedicated Republican Party Presidential Nominee odds tracker.