2028 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker

Updated: November 10, 2025 at 4:52 pm EST

The graphs below display the average odds to win the 2028 Republican party nomination
Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite to represent the GOP in the next presidential election, with Marco Rubio second and Donald Trump third
See the 2028 Republican nomination odds for all the betting favorites and longshots

This page monitors the online betting odds to win the 2028 Republican Party presidential nomination. Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in second, and incumbent President Donald Trump carrying the third-best odds to win the nomination.

The graph below shows the odds from Kalshi and reflects how they have changed over time in accordance with the biggest news stories, trends, and political developments.

2028 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds

Vice President J.D. Vance has maintained a sizeable lead as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican Nomination. Marco Rubio, Donald J. Trump, and Ron DeSantis all trail Vance with a massive gap between the current VP and the rest of the field.

2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds

Odds as of November 2025 from Kalshi. New users can claim the Kalshi promo code to get a welcome bonus for trading on Republican Presidential Nominee odds.

Timeline of GOP Nominee Odds Updates

Aug. 24, 2023: After the first (Trump-free) GOP debate, Ramaswamy improved to +550 while DeSantis faded to +750. Nikki Haley also improved from +3900 to +2900.
Aug. 16, 2023: Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Republican Nomination have improved to -303 over summer, while Ron DeSantis has faded to +725 and been supplanted as second-favorite by Vivek Ramaswamy (+650).
May 30, 2023: Donald Trump (-208) has widened his lead on Ron DeSantis (+255) in the latest GOP nomination odds for the 2024 presidential election. No other candidate is shorter than +2500 (Nikki Haley).
Feb. 15, 2023: Nikki Haley improved from +1800 to +1000 after announcing she would seek the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election today.
Dec. 20, 2021: Trump is now the odds-on favorite at -105. Second-favorite DeSantis, who had faded badly last time, bounced back a little (from +500 to +438).
Nov. 1, 2021: Trump (+102) is nearly at even-money; second-favorite DeSantis slid significantly (from +367 to +500).
Sep. 20, 2021: Trump’s odds improved again (from +208 to +171), as did DeSantis’ (+375 to +367). Top-ten contenders Haley, Cruz, Noem, and Pompeo all faded.
Sep. 1, 2021: Trump moved from +225 to +208. Second-favorite DeSantis went the other way from +350 to +375, as did third-favorite Haley (+700 to +733).
Aug. 2, 2021: While Trump (+225) and DeSantis (+350) continue to sit well ahead of the field, Kristi Noem has quietly shortened from +2400 to +1500 over the past few months. She’s now the fourth-favorite with Nikki Haley (+700) sitting third.
June 25, 2021: DeSantis (+400) continues to close the gap on long-time favorite Trump (+275).
May 7, 2021: Ron DeSantis’ momentum has continued, improving from +617 to +533. He is now alone in second. Nikki Haley faded from +617 to +650.
Apr. 15, 2021: Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are now in a dead-heat as second-favorite (at +617) behind Donald Trump Sr (+300).
Mar. 24, 2021: The last three weeks have not altered the GOP nomination odds.
Mar. 1, 2021: There were two big winners from the CPAC conference last weekend: Trump improved from +525 to +275 after hinting at a 2024 run; DeSantis leapt from +1300 to +550, as polls indicated he was the second-choice for most GOPers after Trump.
Feb. 17, 2021: The three favorites – Pence, Trump Sr, and Haley – all saw their odds fade slightly as the odds for secondary contenders like Ron DeSantis (Gov. of FL) and Mike Pompeo (former Sec. of State and CIA Director) improved.
Jan. 27, 2021: Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Donald Trump remain the top-three favorites, despite a real possibility of Trump being banned from holding public office via his second impeachment trial.
Jan. 22, 2021: There was no significant odds movement after President Biden’s inauguration.
Jan. 8, 2021: Calls for his resignation, removal, and/or impeachment aren’t hurting Trump’s odds to be the GOP nominee in 2024; he remains at +500, tied for second-best on the board with Nikki Haley.
Dec. 10, 2020: Lame-duck Trump improved again (+600 to +500) but still trails outgoing VEEP Mike Pence (+375) and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (+425).
Nov. 26, 2020: Donald Trump Sr saw his odds improve modestly from +650 to +600 as he continues his farfetched legal bid to stay in power.
Nov. 12, 2020: Mike Pence (+375) and Nikki Haley (+425) are the early favorites to be the next leader of the Republican party. Donald Trump Sr. is at +650.

Past Republican Party Nominees

Year	Name	Popular Vote Percentage
2024	Donald Trump*	49.8%
2020	Donald Trump	47.4%
2016	Donald Trump*	46.1%
2012	Mitt Romney	47.2%
2008	John McCain	45.7%
2004	George W. Bush*	50.7%
2000	George W. Bush*	47.9%
1996	Bob Dole	40.7%
1992	George H.W. Bush	37.5%
1988	George H.W. Bush*	53.4%
1984	Ronald Reagan*	58.8%
1980	Ronald Reagan*	50.8%

*Elected President of the United States

Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential Election despite finishing with 2.8 million fewer (popular) votes than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump was elected President again in 2024, defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris, winning both the popular vote and the electorate.

Archived Republican nomination odds:

2020

Kevin Wolff

After years of writing as well as Data Analyst work for Pro Football Focus, Kevin Wolff is now a Sports Betting Writer for SportRadar, and more specifically, SBD. A graduate of Fordham University in NYC, Kevin is also a full-time dog dad when he's not writing.

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