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Trump’s Re-Election Odds Plummeting Amid Growing Protests; Biden Now Favored

Joe Biden speaking
For the first time this year, Donald Trump is not favored to win re-election to the US Presideny. Joe Biden is now -114 to win, while Trump has fallen to +101. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Flickr).
  • Re-election to the US Presidency is suddenly looking very uncertain for incumbent Donald Trump
  • Joe Biden is now -114 to win, while Trump has fallen to +101.
  • Should bettors be backing Biden, or will Trump’s odds rebound?

In retrospect, perhaps the gassing of peaceful protesters so he could cross the road for a photo op wasn’t the best re-election strategy for Donald Trump.

The President continues to blunder in response to nationwide protests. As a result, Trump is also bungling his chances of winning a second term in the Oval Office.

For instance, Trump took shelter in a basement bunker on Saturday as protesters demonstrated outside the White House. His odds of winning re-election are also heading downward.

Americans are slated to go to the polls on Nov. 3rd. For the first time, Democratic challenger Joe Biden is the favorite to win in the 2020 Presidential election odds.

Biden is now the odds-on -114 chalk to win the Presidency. Trump has fallen to +101.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate May 28th Odds June 1st Odds June 3rd Odds
Joe Biden +112 +110 -114
Donald Trump -132 -130 +101
Hillary Clinton +2975 +3400 +3850
Mike Pence +9250 +9250 +7625
Andrew Cuomo +7300 +8000 +9375
Michelle Obama +10000 +8350 +9000
Mark Cuban +12500 +12500 +12500
Nikki Haley +19250 +15750 +12500
Elizabeth Warren +22500 +15000 +13750
Bernie Sanders +13500 +12000 +16500

Odds taken June 3rd.

As a result, this is the first time Trump’s been plus-money since Nov. 2019.

Trump Missteps Hurting Re-Election Chances

Trump was already digging himself into a hole via his mismanagement of the COVID-19 outbreak. The coronavirus has now killed more than 107,000 in the USA.

Now he’s digging his heels in against a rapidly-growing protest about police brutality toward African-Americans. However, it’s an issue that the majority of Americans are supporting. He could be burying his re-election chances even further.

Reuters/Ipsos polled Americans June 1-2. The results showed that 64% of Americans were sympathetic to the protestors. Meanwhile, over 55% of respondents indicated that they disapproved of Trump’s response to the protests.

No Defense For Trump

Slowly, it appears that even Trump’s inner circle is beginning to see the writing on the wall. Tuesday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper spoke out against Trump’s decision on Monday to invoke the Insurrection Act and activate US military to combat the protesters.

James Miller, a member of Esper’s staff, turned in his resignation for the same reason.

Republican Senators Ben Sasse and Tim Scott and US Representative Will Hurd all criticized Trump. All three were repulsed by his move to gas peaceful protesters outside the White House so he could cross the street and have a photo taken while holding a bible outside a church.

“There is a fundamental—a Constitutional—right to protest,” Sasse said in a statement. “I’m against clearing out a peaceful protest for a photo op that treats the Word of God as a political prop.”

As an interesting aside, while Trump’s odds are lengthening, the betting line of Vice-President Mike Pence shortened. Pence’s odds improved from +9250 to +7625.

[corsspost]

Biden His Time

With Trump ranting and throwing gasoline on the fire, Biden took a more measured approach. Firstly, he met with protesters to discuss their concerns.

Secondly, he’s also capitalizing on Trump’s flailing lack of leadership to aid his campaign. Trump’s actions keep writing Biden’s campaign ads from him.

This scenario is beginning to resemble 1968. That’s when protests over the Vietnam War escalated rapidly. After that, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson opted not to seek a second term.

Trump’s current approval rating is 46%. That’s the lowest ever recorded by a sitting President. Americans appear to be sending him a clear message.

Pick: Joe Biden (-114)

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