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Trump’s 2024 Election Odds Improve to +575, Closes Gap on Harris for Second-Favorite

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics

Aug 3, 2021 · 8:48 PM PDT

Donald Trump speaking at a rally in Ohio in July 2021
Former President Donald Trump speaks on a variety of topics to supporters at a Turning Point Action gathering in Phoenix. The midsummer race for Ohio's traditionally Republican 15th Congressional District wouldn't typically get much national attention. But it's suddenly becoming a high-stakes test of Trump's endorsement power, which he has wielded as a cudgel to silence opposition in the GOP. Trump has endorsed Mike Carey, a coal lobbyist who is among 10 Republicans jockeying to replace former GOP Rep. Steve Stivers, who retired from Congress earlier this year. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
  • Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US Presidential election have shortened to +575
  • The line on second betting choice Kamala Harris lengthened to +400
  • Incumbent President Joe Biden is now the +375 choice to win a second term in the White House

Does absence make the heart grow fonder? The betting odds on the candidates to win the US Presidency would appear to suggest that this is the case.

The latest 2024 US election odds are out and, for the sixth straight time since February, the betting line on Donald Trump winning the Presidency has shortened.

Republican Trump, who served as President from 2016-20, is still the third-favorite in the 2024 US Presidential odds. However, his average odds across the leading online sportsbooks are now +575.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Current Odds June 25 Odds
Joe Biden +375 +375
Kamala Harris +400 +375
Donald Trump +575 +600
Ron DeSantis +950 +1067
Nikki Haley +1800 +1533
Mike Pence +2500 +2000
Pete Buttigieg +3250 +4100
Jeff Bezos +3300 OFF
Tucker Carlson +3300 +2900
Michelle Obama +3650 +3867
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +4000 +4033
Elizabeth Warren +4000 +3833
Ivanka Trump +4000 +3050
Ted Cruz +4000 +3767
Amy Klobuchar +4150 +7200
Kristi Noeth +4150 +4150
Mike Pompeo +4150 +4267
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +4950 +3533

Odds as of August 4

As recently as February 9, that line was as long as +1567.  Current Vice-President Kamala Harris remains the second betting choice. However, her average line has lengthened from +375 to +400. Incumbent President Democrat Joe Biden remains steady as the chalk in this betting market at +375.

Trump Candidate Wins Ohio Nod

A sure sign that Trump still has sway with Republican party members in certain areas of the country was provided on Tuesday in Ohio. During a primary held in central Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, Mike Carey, the Trump-endorsed candidate, won the nod.

Make America Great Again, a super PAC chaired by Trump’s former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, quietly purchased $300,000 in Ohio television advertising in support of Carey.

However, one week earlier, Trump-backed candidate Republican Susan Wright lost a special Congressional election runoff in Texas. Wright is the widow of Republican Rep. Ron Wright, who held he seat until he died of COVID-19 in February.

Anti-Trump Sentiment Gauged

Republican member of Congress Adam Kinzinger was also in Texas last week prior to the runoff election. His mission was to gauge what percentage of Republican leaders and voters within the state view Trump as a scourge on the party and a threat to democracy in the country.

Among those Kinzinger met with while in the Lone Star State was two-term Republican President George W Bush. However, nine of the 10 Republican candidates in the runoff election openly sought to gain the Trump endorsement.  That offers plenty of evidence that Trump still maintains much sway within the party.

On The Rise

Trump isn’t the only candidate showing an uptick in their betting lines since the last 2024 Presidential election odds were released. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is considered to have the best chance to replace Trump as the Republican candidate. Even as COVID-19 is raging throught the Sunshine State, DeSantis saw his odds shorten from +1067 to +950.

Among Democrats, Pete Buttigieg (+4100 to +3250) and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (+7200 to +4150) made major moves.

Fading Away

Harris saw her chances of the 2024 Presidency moving in the opposite direction. Her betting line went for +375 co-favorite with Biden to +400. Her popularity is waning significantly with the masses. Harris’ polling numbers are the worst for a sitting Vice-President since the 1970s.

Two recent polls came to the conclusion that 46% of Americans approve of Harris. However, 47-48% of Americans polled disapproved of the VP.

Meanwhile, Biden has gained 51.3% approval, with only 44.9% disapproving of his performance in the Oval Office.

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