- The latest average odds across the leading sportsbooks show that Donald Trump’s odds of being re-elected US President improved from -110 to -150
- At the same time, polls show that 50 percent of Americans believe the impeached Trump should be convicted and removed from office
- Currently, Joe Biden is the leading Democrat in the 2020 US Presidential odds at +400
The odds that Donald Trump will win re-election as President of the United States continue to improve. At the same time, polls show that 50 percent of Americans agree with the impeachment of Trump and believe that he should be removed from office.
In other words, it’s business as unusual with the Trump Administration.
Across the leading sportsbooks, the average betting line of Trump winning re-election list him as the odds-on favorite at -150. Bovada rates Trump as the -120 chalk.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate||Odds at Bovada|
Odds taken January 7th. See Bovada for complete list.
Trump was listed at odds of -110 to win re-election on Dec. 3 in the 2020 Presidential Election Odds.
Teflon Don Rolls On
Trump’s was impeached by the House of Representatives. New evidence is further establishing his misdeeds. There are growing indications that Americans have seen enough of Trump’s reprehensible behavior.
A poll conducted by fivethirtyeight.com indicated that 57 percent of the country believes Trump committed impeachable offences. The same poll showed 47 of Americans felt his crimes warranted Trump’s removal from the Presidency.
But when it comes to a second term, like everything else so far, nothing seems to stick to Trump. At this point, that shouldn’t be surprising.
In 1998, Democratic President Bill Clinton was impeached by the Republican-controlled House. It fortified his base. His approval rating actually improved.
The same effect is emboldening hardcore Trump supporters to stand by their man.
Will an Iran War Help Trump’s Re-Election Chances?
It’s still too early to know how last week’s assassination of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani will impact Trump’s odds. If he ups the ante and goes to war with Iran, how will that play out?
History does indicate that Americans tend to throw their support behind a wartime President.
Donald Trump killing Iran's second most powerful leader risks a horrific wider war in which many innocent people will die, in a region already long consumed in death.
But it could also bolster Trump's re-election chances by making him a wartime President. Which he knows.
— Owen Jones🌹 (@OwenJones84) January 3, 2020
Is Trump’s decision to take out Soleimani about distracting from his impeachment and therefore increasing his re-election chances? Many political observers view it in that scope.
Democrats Fumbling Along
The list of Democratic Presidential candidates is slowly being whittled down. It’s still crowded bunch, though. Like the early stages of a golf tournament, the leaderboard keeps changing.
Joe Biden’s numbers are trending in the right direction at +400. He’d climbed as high as +650 as recently as November.
Bernie Sanders is also bouncing back strongly. At +700, his average odds are at their lowest.
Both Elizabeth Warren (+1300) and Pete Buttigieg (+1400) continue to fade. Buttigieg was as low as +823 in late November. Warren is sliding badly after holding odds of +230 in October. She’ll need a strong performance in the Jan. 14th Democratic debate.
Don’t Underestimate Trump
There’s no question that Trump is an incompetent leader. But what can’t be disputed is that the man is a brilliant master of marketing and media manipulation.
Outrage worked for him in 2016, so don’t expect that to change. Until the Democrats settle on a challenger to Trump, it makes sense that he’ll remain favored.
Let’s explain it in terms first employed by former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Trump is a known known. The Democratic candidate is a known unknown at this point.
Betting on a race when you don’t know the entrants is foolhardy.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.