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Trump’s Reelection Odds Surge from +184 to +139 Two Weeks from Voting Day

Donald Trump's odds
With the Election two weeks away Donald Trump's odds are improving. Photo by @ajplus (Twitter)
  • President Trump’s odds to win a second term have surged (from +184 to +139) two weeks before Election Day
  • Democratic hopeful Joe Biden’s odds have faded, moving from -221 (shorter than the President has ever been) to -166
  • Read below for analysis on the current 2020 US Presidential Election odds

With two weeks to go before what could be the biggest Election Day in United States history, President Trump has seen his odds to win a second term surge. The President is still the underdog though, moving from +184 from +139.

Meantime, Democratic hopeful Joe Biden’s favorite status has faded a bit prior to November 3. The former Vice President has moved from -221 (the shortest odds either candidate has enjoyed) to -166.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Odds on Oct. 2 Odds on Oct. 6 Odds on Oct. 9 Odds on Oct. 12 Odds on Oct. 19
Donald Trump +148 +151 +175 +184 +139
Joe Biden -183 -179 -202 -221 -166

Odds taken Oct. 19

The fluctuation in odds reflects the volatility of the President himself. There’s never been a Commander-in-chief quite like President Trump. It’s interesting to track how his 2020 election odds have gone up-and-down (just like the stock market he regularly touts).

What does this latest jump in odds mean for President Trump? Has something significant happened on the campaign trail to prompt a bump? Should Biden bettors be concerned for a similar upset to 2016?

We handicap the latest numbers and offer betting advice.

Town Hall Backlash … or Bump?

Prior to campaign rallies in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona over the last few days, the last time we saw President Trump was in a town hall with NBC on Thursday. You would never know he requested it by some of the rhetoric that was spouted.

While there was considerable criticism following the display, with many post-event pundits noting moderator Savannah Guthrie as the winner and the President as the loser, President Trump’s base seems to only strengthen in the aftermath. Actress Kirstie Alley got plenty of attention over the weekend for such a sentiment.

Reactions like that may leave many dumbfounded. But there’s no doubt the former “Cheers” star speaks for many. And with a possible stimulus deal coming in the next 48 hours, President Trump may get another slight bump from voters who view his economic record over the last four years as a success.

In the Swing of Things

Most election observers have noted the outcome of this election will come down to six key swing states: the aforementioned Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona. So, it’s not surprising President Trump has been putting plenty of miles on Air Force One while visiting those locales in the last week.

Biden is doing the same. His campaign had eschewed in-person canvassing for months due to concerns about the pandemic before reversing course — while President Trump was battling COVID-19 — earlier this month. The front-runner was in Durham Sunday. His campaign manager noted this race is far from over.

“The very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in a memo to supporters on Saturday.

There’s been a record number of early voters in 2020, with over 17 million ballots already cast. That’s about 12-percent of all ballots cast in the 2016 election. Some experts say 150 million ballots may be cast this year, which would make it the biggest election since the one in 1908.

Which candidate those early votes go to — where thousands have waited in lines lasting hours in those swing states — will no doubt have a big say in who wins.

Final Boost?

President Trump enters Thursday’s final debate this week trailing Biden in both national and key swing state polls. The Nashville, Tennessee event will likely be his last chance to reach a vast audience before Election Day.

And, of course, like last week’s circus with Guthrie, the unpredictable president is already bashing moderator Kristen Welker.

The president’s performance in the first joint debate was widely condemned as a complete farce due to his aggressive nature. If we see more the same this week, it could put the final nail in the coffin for Trump.

But if the President tones it down, even a little, it could assist his bid to regain the White House for another four years.

So, should bettors jump on Trump with shortened odds? I would suggest the momentum is too far on the side of Biden at this point. I’m still fading the President, even as his odds shorten.

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