Will Elon win his case vs OpenAI? Latest Odds from Prediction Markets

• The civil trial pitting Elon Musk vs OpenAI and Sam Altman is underway in Oakland, CA with both sides giving different versions of the circumstances under which Musk left the project
• Musk claims that Altman abandoned the promise of OpenAI being used for charitable purposes; Altman says Musk’s greed forced the split
• As Musk pursues an estimated $150 billion in damages from the near-quarter-trillion dollar company, prediction markets are offering yes or no options as to whether Musk will win the case

Elon Musk, the richest person in the world, and OpenAI, the most valuable private company in the world, are doing battle in civil court. Musk alleges that his OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman did an about face on the company’s charitable objectives in the interest of enriching himself. In response, Altman says that Musk was the one who was seeking profit and when he met resistance, he walked away.

Musk wants $150 billion in damages from OpenAI, a company with an estimated value of approximately $730 billion. That is about $100 or so billion less than Musk’s estimated net worth.

While these dollar figures will be otherworldly to just about every other human being on planet Earth, the ubiquitous nature of artificial intelligence and how it is impacting nearly every aspect of life makes this a relevant story. There is a major difference between the technology being used for altruistic purposes and not to make the unfathomably rich even richer, at least in the court of public opinion. As for civil court, it will hinge on which multi-billionaire mogul the jury chooses to believe and its interpretation of the law.

The dispute is beyond pure money and intent. It’s gotten deeply personal with the two titans making biting public comments about each other on social media, drawing rebuke from the judge in the case.

Musk claims OpenAI’s creation was for it to be a nonprofit, but Altman turned it into a financial behemoth. Altman’s representatives assert that Musk’s primary gripe is that he didn’t care about OpenAI or its charitable goals until he left and saw how profitable it could be. In the aftermath, Musk created an AI entity on his own, xAI, which was eventually folded into his company, SpaceX.

Prediction markets are paying attention to the trial and give users a yes or no option regarding Musk winning or losing the case.

Elon vs OpenAI: Latest Odds from Prediction Markets

As the trial gets started, market volume has surpassed $440,000. It will rise as the case proceeds.

It is a yes or no market. Either Musk will win or he will lose. Predictions have been fluctuating, presumably due to few people being immersed in this case as the sides were bickering in public and before it reached the courthouse.

In mid-January, more than two-thirds of those taking part in the market believed Musk would win. On March 10, it dropped to its low point at 32%. Now it is in the mid-50s that Musk will win.

To take part in this market, new users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

The rules dictate that if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California decides in favor of Elon Musk in the case of Musk v. Altman et al prior to Jan. 1, 2027, the market will resolve to Yes. The sources are based on legal agencies listed in hierarchical order. For example, a judicial body official records and electronic filing systems. That is followed by reputable news organizations such as Bloomberg News, Reuters, ABC, CNN, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and others.

Those taking part should understand the rules beforehand.

How Will Elon Musk vs Altman Play Out?

Laypersons will find this case difficult to fathom on its face. When calculating Musk and Altman’s wealth and the value of the company they are fighting about, it will be even harder to comprehend. However, once the sides present their case with testimony and legal perspective from the most expensive attorneys money can buy, it will come down to the jury deciding whether Musk or Altman’s intentions were clear and believable.

Testimony and statements aside, Musk did not become the richest person in the world without being a capitalist and looking for profit. Logically, would Altman (or Musk for that matter) be involved in this type of world-changing product based solely on giving it away for what they thought was the public good?

That seems to be the crux of the case. Musk says he expected OpenAI to be used for charity and was tricked into providing financing for it. Then Altman used it for his own ends.

Realistically, the defense is far more believable with the claim that Musk is angry that he walked away from a company that became as ingrained as OpenAI and would have made him a trillionaire had he stayed onboard.

Neither of the courtroom combatants are especially popular with the public, viewed as aspiring — arguably actual — oligarchs. But a courtroom is not meant to be a popularity contest. In the end, Musk’s assertions do not pass the smell test. OpenAI and Altman will win the case. So when taking part in this market, the better option is that Musk will lose and the market will resolve to No.