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NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Odds & Picks

Sun setting at Homestead-Miami
Which drivers are the best bets to win at Homestead-Miami this weekend? Photo by Jared Smith (Wiki Commons)
  • The Dixie Vodka 400 takes place on June 14th at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida
  • Kyle Busch is the defending champ at Miami and has finished in the top six spots in five straight starts, including a pair of wins
  • Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are co-favorites to win this week at +450

After Martin Truex Jr. picked up the win at Martinsville on Wednesday, the NASCAR Cup series shifts to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400 race on Sunday, June 14th at 3:00 PM ET.

Kyle Busch is the defending champ here, but Martin Truex Jr. has finished either first or second in three straight starts in Miami.

Let’s take a closer look at the race and see where there’s value on the board.

NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Odds

Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick +450
Martin Truex Jr. +450
Kyle Busch +500
Chase Elliott +750
Joey Logano +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Brad Keselowski +900
Ryan Blaney +1000
Alex Bowman +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2200
Kurt Busch +2500
Clint Bowyer +2500

Odds taken June 11th

Truex Jr. is One of the Top Options

Taking a look at the favorites, Martin Truex Jr. is who’ll I’ll be eyeing from this category. He had a fairly rough start to the season – finishing 32nd at the Daytona 500 followed by three results of 14th or worse – but he’s picked it up of late.

He has been in the Top 10 in four of his last five starts, including a win at Martinsville mid-week.

Truex Jr. thrives at Homestead as his last three results are a win and pair of second place finishes. Looking further back, he’s placed sixth or better in six of his last nine appearances there.

I’d bet him for Top 10 props, and sprinkle a little bit on him to win outright. I’d also bet him to go head-to-head with pretty much anyone besides Kevin Harvick.

Taking a Shot With Logano

I’ve mostly been off Joey Logano this season as I haven’t been thrilled with how he’s been racing over the last seven starts – but this could be a spot where he does well.

He’s coming off a fourth-place finish at Martinsville and has now been in the Top 10 in three of the last four races.

Logano has a really solid track record of late at Homestead, as over his last five starts he’s finished no worse than sixth. I don’t know that he wins this race outright, but I’d consider him for Top 10 props here.

Chase Elliott Worth a Top 10 Bet

Elliott has the third-best average finish at Homestead among active drivers but it’s important to take that with a grain of salt: he’s only had four starts here. Even so, he’s done pretty well as his four results are 15th, seventh, fifth and 11th.

He’s been driving pretty well overall as he has placed eighth or better in four of his last five starts, and seven of his last nine. This looks like a spot where he can pull off a Top 10 result and cash in for us.

Pass on Hamlin

I don’t think many people will be considering Hamlin to win outright but in general, I’d avoid him this week. I was on him last week for a Top 10 and he missed miserably with a 24th.

He’s typically a strong bet for a Top 10 here as he’s been in that range in six of his last seven with the lone miss being a 12th, but I’m going to pass.

Overall, Hamlin has now finished 17th or worse in three of his last six – but he’s also finished fifth or better in the other three starts, so he’s really hit or miss. It’s hard to rely on a driver who is that hot and cold.

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