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Alex Bowman’s NASCAR Championship Odds Go from 43-1 to 34-1 After Stunning Camping World 400 Win

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 10:11 AM PDT

Zach Catanzareti chats with reporters.
Alex Bowman picked up his first win of the year at Chicago two weeks ago. Photo by Zach Catanzareti (flickr) [CC License].
  • Alex Bowman earned his first win of the year at Chicago two weeks ago
  • Bowman’s odds to win it all were at +4300 previously but are now down to +3400
  • Even after a couple of rough weeks, Kyle Busch is still the best bet

Alex Bowman has been an under-the-radar driver who has produced good results recently, but isn’t getting much love from sports bettors. His odds to win the NASCAR Championship has gone from +4300 to +3400 after his win at the Camping World 400. Is he a good bet to win it all or is this hot stretch just fool’s gold?

Odds to Win 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship

Driver 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship Odds
Kyle Busch +250
Martin Truex Jr. +400
Kevin Harvick +600
Brad Keselowski +700
Joey Logano +700
Chase Elliott +1000
Denny Hamlin +1600
Ryan Blaney +2000
Clint Bowyer +2200
Kurt Busch +2500
Alex Bowman +2800

*Odds taken 07/10/19

Bowman Has Been on a Roll

Not many people are paying attention to Bowman but he’s actually now ninth in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup standings. He has one more win on the year than Kevin Harvick, who is often talked about as a bet to win it all.

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Bowman had an impressive run from Talladega to Charlotte, finishing eighth or better in all six of the races. Then he posted three straight top 15’s and then won at Chicago. Last week’s 21st finish was disappointing, but keep in mind it was a crash-filled race.

Still Plenty of Concerns

Bowman has had the best car on occasion, but not consistently enough. For example, he led 88 laps in his win at Chicagoland. He also led laps in five of the six weeks he placed in the top 8. However, he hasn’t led a single lap in any other race. That’s a concern.

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Beyond that, when you look outside of the seven races where he’s finished in the top 8, he’s placed 14th or worse in nine of those 12 outings. He’s had a nice little run in the middle of the year and earned a big win, but he’s not a serious threat to the throne.

Busch Still the Best Bet

We’ve seen Busch cool off over the last couple of weeks, placing 14th last week and 22nd at Chicago, but he’s been incredible otherwise. I have a tough time believing anyone else will knock him off.

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Busch has led laps in all but four races this year, which is incredible. That shows you what kind of car he’s been working with. And don’t worry too much about the last two outings. Chicago and Daytona are not places where he races all that well. Those tracks are 19th and 23rd in terms of average finish among the tracks for him since 2017.

Busch has four wins on the year with 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s. That’s either the most (top 5’s and top 10’s) or tied for the most (wins) among any driver on the NASCAR circuit. The price tag is short on him for a reason: he’s the best bet to win it tall.

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