Formula 1 2021 Russian Grand Prix Odds and Picks
- Lewis Hamilton has emerged as a heavy favorite as the Formula 1 season continues this weekend with the running of the 2021 Russian Grand Prix
- Mercedes drivers have won each of the seven editions of the Russian Grand Prix since it returned to Sochi in 2014
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday morning’s running of the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi Autodrom
Mercedes will be aiming to extend its long-time dominance in Sochi when Formula 1 returns this weekend with the running of the 2021 Russian Grand Prix. The German automaker has claimed the checkered flag in each of the seven editions of the race since its return to the F1 circuit in 2014. That is reflected on the odds to win this year’s Russian Grand Prix, with defending world champion Lewis Hamilton leading the way as a lofty -150 favorite, followed by his soon-to-be former teammate Valtteri Bottas, who trails as a +350 second favorite. However, Mercedes can expect severe challenges from Red Bull star Max Verstappen, who closely follows Bottas at +450, while the McLaren duo of Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris aim to duplicate their recent success at the Italian Grand Prix.
Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead lights out at the 2021 Russian Grand Prix at Sochi Autodrom on Sunday morning at 8:00 AM EST.
Odds to Win 2021 Russian Grand Prix
| Driver | Odds to Win | Odds to Finish Top Three | Odds to Finish Top Six | Odds to Finish Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | -150 | -360 | -500 | -800 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +350 | -190 | -360 | -700 |
| Max Verstappen | +450 | -125 | -225 | -500 |
| Sergio Perez | +2000 | +225 | -200 | -450 |
| Lando Norris | +2000 | +200 | -225 | -450 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +2000 | +350 | -125 | -400 |
| George Russell | +3500 | +2000 | +900 | +180 |
| Charles Leclerc | +5000 | +400 | -165 | -400 |
| Pierre Gasly | +8000 | +1100 | +110 | -280 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +8000 | +1000 | -110 | -400 |
| Sebastian Vettel | +20000 | +1400 | +275 | -110 |
| Fernando Alonso | +30000 | +1600 | +225 | -225 |
| Esteban Ocon | +20000 | +1600 | +500 | -125 |
| Lance Stroll | +20000 | +1800 | +450 | -105 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 | +8000 | +2500 | +225 |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | +50000 | +6500 | +1400 | +185 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | +50000 | +13000 | +3500 | +450 |
| Nicholas Latifi | +50000 | +13000 | +6500 | +650 |
| Mick Schumacher | +50000 | +15000 | +8000 | +1200 |
| Nikita Mazepin | +50000 | +15000 | +13000 | +1600 |
Odds as of September 23rd at DraftKings
Hamilton Looks to Close the Gap on Verstappen
Lewis Hamilton aims to end a midseason winless drought that continued in his last outing in Italy. The 36-year-old Englishman’s continued duel with current points leader Max Verstappen ended with a collision that bounced both drivers from the race in Monza.
>> Bet Lewis Hamilton to Win the Russian Grand Prix at DraftKings Here! <<
However, the upside for Mercedes comes in the form of a three-place grid penalty handed to Verstappen in the wake of that crash.
Hamilton / Verstappen crash from their 360 degree cameras.#F1 #ItalianGP pic.twitter.com/IZ3RX6n8MW
— Peke_Formula1 (@Peke_Formula1) September 14, 2021
But in addition to battling Verstappen, who maintains a slim five-point lead atop the F1 Drivers Standings, Hamilton must also contend with his lame-duck teammate Valtteri Bottas. The defending champion at Sochi, Bottas was untethered by team requirements at Monza following the pre-race announcement that he would be replaced by George Russell next season at Mercedes. After being forced to start at the back of the grid due to an engine change, Bottas turned in an epic performance on his way to a third-place finish. A two-time winner at Sochi, the now unleashed Bottas offers huge value as a +350 bet to claim his first victory since his win in Russia last September.
Grid Penalty Impacts Verstappen Odds
With a front-row start on Sunday now out of the question, Verstappen finds himself looking up at his Mercedes rivals as a +450 bet in the Russian Grand Prix odds. However, that should not preclude sports bettors from laying a value wager on the 23-year-old, who has finished among the top five in each of his past four appearances at Sochi, capped by a second-place performance a year ago.
Horner unconcerned over Verstappen grid penalty – but predicts Sochi will be ‘a challenge’ for Red Bull #f1 https://t.co/gYLHZD16I3 pic.twitter.com/JQORZdt5z1
— Jeff Thompson (@jeffjthompson) September 19, 2021
Verstappen could also benefit from the decreased likelihood of Bottas sticking to team orders. Sporting strong -125 odds to reach the podium for the 11th time this season, Verstappen could use a big assist from his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez, who showed signs of snapping out a recent slump with a fifth-place finish in Italy. “Checo” has finished in the points in each of his seven previous trips to Sochi, but desperately needs a strong outing in qualifying if he is to pay out as a +225 bet to reach the podium for the first time in eight races.
Russian Grand Prix Recent Winners
| Year | Driver | Margin of Victory | Pole Position | Fastest Lap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes | 7.729 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 3.829 sec | Charles Leclerc – Ferrari | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 2.545 sec | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes |
| 2017 | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes | 0.617 sec | Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari | Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | 25.022 sec | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 5.953 sec | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 13.657 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Valtteri Bottas – Williams-Mercedes</td |
Can McLaren Capitalize on Leclerc’s Start from the Back?
The McLaren duo of Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris were the biggest beneficiaries of that collision between Hamilton and Verstappen in Italy, finishing 1-2 and seizing firm control of third place in the F1 Constructor Championship odds. The duo each sport attractive +2000 odds heading to Sochi, and should benefit from Ferrari’s decision to make long awaited upgrades to Charles Leclerc’s car, forcing the talented Monte Carlo native to start from the back of the pack.
Ferrari’s much anticipated power unit development will make its debut at this weekend’s Russian Grand Prix, but it will trigger a grid penalty for Charles Leclerc that will force him to start from the back of the grid.
The Ferrari is back!! #TheGamePlan pic.twitter.com/xV4pEPPUaU— Carol Radull (@CarolRadull) September 23, 2021
However, it is Leclerc who enjoys the stronger track record in Sochi, including a third-place finish in 2019. The 23-year-old also claimed the pole at this race two years ago and is worthy of a value wager as a -165 bet to power to a top six finish.
The Picks: Valtteri Bottas to win (+350); Max Verstappen top three (-125); Charles Leclerc top six (-165)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
