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Formula 1 2021 Russian Grand Prix Odds and Picks

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Sep 23, 2021 · 8:29 AM PDT

Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix odds
Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas of Finland celebrates on the podium after winning the Russian Formula One Grand Prix, at the Sochi Autodrom circuit, in Sochi, Russia, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020. (Kirill Kudryavtsev, Pool via AP)
  • Lewis Hamilton has emerged as a heavy favorite as the Formula 1 season continues this weekend with the running of the 2021 Russian Grand Prix
  • Mercedes drivers have won each of the seven editions of the Russian Grand Prix since it returned to Sochi in 2014
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday morning’s running of the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi Autodrom

Mercedes will be aiming to extend its long-time dominance in Sochi when Formula 1 returns this weekend with the running of the 2021 Russian Grand Prix. The German automaker has claimed the checkered flag in each of the seven editions of the race since its return to the F1 circuit in 2014. That is reflected on the odds to win this year’s Russian Grand Prix, with defending world champion Lewis Hamilton leading the way as a lofty -150 favorite, followed by his soon-to-be former teammate Valtteri Bottas, who trails as a +350 second favorite. However, Mercedes can expect severe challenges from Red Bull star Max Verstappen, who closely follows Bottas at +450, while the McLaren duo of Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris aim to duplicate their recent success at the Italian Grand Prix.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead lights out at the 2021 Russian Grand Prix at Sochi Autodrom on Sunday morning at 8:00 AM EST.

Odds to Win 2021 Russian Grand Prix

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Six Odds to Finish Top 10
Lewis Hamilton -150 -360 -500 -800
Valtteri Bottas +350 -190 -360 -700
Max Verstappen +450 -125 -225 -500
Sergio Perez +2000 +225 -200 -450
Lando Norris +2000 +200 -225 -450
Daniel Ricciardo +2000 +350 -125 -400
George Russell +3500 +2000 +900 +180
Charles Leclerc +5000 +400 -165 -400
Pierre Gasly +8000 +1100 +110 -280
Carlos Sainz Jr. +8000 +1000 -110 -400
Sebastian Vettel +20000 +1400 +275 -110
Fernando Alonso +30000 +1600 +225 -225
Esteban Ocon +20000 +1600 +500 -125
Lance Stroll +20000 +1800 +450 -105
Yuki Tsunoda +50000 +8000 +2500 +225
Antonio Giovinazzi +50000 +6500 +1400 +185
Kimi Raikkonen +50000 +13000 +3500 +450
Nicholas Latifi +50000 +13000 +6500 +650
Mick Schumacher +50000 +15000 +8000 +1200
Nikita Mazepin +50000 +15000 +13000 +1600

Odds as of September 23rd at DraftKings

Hamilton Looks to Close the Gap on Verstappen

Lewis Hamilton aims to end a midseason winless drought that continued in his last outing in Italy. The 36-year-old Englishman’s continued duel with current points leader Max Verstappen ended with a collision that bounced both drivers from the race in Monza.

>> Bet Lewis Hamilton to Win the Russian Grand Prix at DraftKings Here! <<

However, the upside for Mercedes comes in the form of a three-place grid penalty handed to Verstappen in the wake of that crash.

But in addition to battling Verstappen, who maintains a slim five-point lead atop the F1 Drivers Standings, Hamilton must also contend with his lame-duck teammate Valtteri Bottas. The defending champion at Sochi, Bottas was untethered by team requirements at Monza following the pre-race announcement that he would be replaced by George Russell next season at Mercedes. After being forced to start at the back of the grid due to an engine change, Bottas turned in an epic performance on his way to a third-place finish. A two-time winner at Sochi, the now unleashed Bottas offers huge value as a +350 bet to claim his first victory since his win in Russia last September.

Grid Penalty Impacts Verstappen Odds

With a front-row start on Sunday now out of the question, Verstappen finds himself looking up at his Mercedes rivals as a +450 bet in the Russian Grand Prix odds. However, that should not preclude sports bettors from laying a value wager on the 23-year-old, who has finished among the top five in each of his past four appearances at Sochi, capped by a second-place performance a year ago.

Verstappen could also benefit from the decreased likelihood of Bottas sticking to team orders. Sporting strong -125 odds to reach the podium for the 11th time this season, Verstappen could use a big assist from his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez, who showed signs of snapping out a recent slump with a fifth-place finish in Italy. “Checo” has finished in the points in each of his seven previous trips to Sochi, but desperately needs a strong outing in qualifying if he is to pay out as a +225 bet to reach the podium for the first time in eight races.

Russian Grand Prix Recent Winners

Year Driver Margin of Victory Pole Position Fastest Lap
2020 Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes 7.729 sec Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes
2019 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 3.829 sec Charles Leclerc – Ferrari Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes
2018 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 2.545 sec Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes
2017 Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes 0.617 sec Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari
2016 Nico Rosberg – Mercedes 25.022 sec Nico Rosberg – Mercedes Nico Rosberg – Mercedes
2015 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 5.953 sec Nico Rosberg – Mercedes Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari
2014 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 13.657 sec Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes Valtteri Bottas – Williams-Mercedes</td

Can McLaren Capitalize on Leclerc’s Start from the Back?

The McLaren duo of Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris were the biggest beneficiaries of that collision between Hamilton and Verstappen in Italy, finishing 1-2 and seizing firm control of third place in the F1 Constructor Championship odds. The duo each sport attractive +2000 odds heading to Sochi, and should benefit from Ferrari’s decision to make long awaited upgrades to Charles Leclerc’s car, forcing the talented Monte Carlo native to start from the back of the pack.

However, it is Leclerc who enjoys the stronger track record in Sochi, including a third-place finish in 2019. The 23-year-old also claimed the pole at this race two years ago and is worthy of a value wager as a -165 bet to power to a top six finish.

The Picks: Valtteri Bottas to win (+350); Max Verstappen top three (-125); Charles Leclerc top six (-165)

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