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Formula 1 2020 Portugal Grand Prix Odds & Picks

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 9:29 AM PST

Williams driver George Russell of Britain steers his car during the qualifying session at the Formula One Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir, Bahrain, Saturday, Nov. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, Pool)
  • Lewis Hamilton once again favored as Formula 1 returns to Portugal for the first time in 24 years
  • Rainy forecast in Portugal may create breakthrough opportunities for Daniel Ricciardo and Sergio Perez
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and storylines ahead of Sunday morning’s running of the Portugal Grand Prix at the Algarve International Circuit

Formula 1 returns to Portugal for the first time in 24 years with this weekend’s running of the 2020 Portugal Grand Prix at the Algarve International Circuit.

Fresh off his historic victory at the Eifel Grand Prix on the storied track at Nürburgring, Lewis Hamilton will make his first-ever career appearance in Portugal poised as a strong -200 favorite to claim his 91st career F1 win, smashing the record currently held by the legendary Michael Schumacher.

Here’s a look at the odds and trends going into race weekend.

Odds to Win 2020 Portugal Grand Prix

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Six Odds to Finish Top 10
Lewis Hamilton -200 -835 -1115 -1667
Valtteri Bottas +375 -500 -835 -1250
Max Verstappen +400 -385 -670 -835
Daniel Ricciardo +5000 +300 -305 -400
Sergio Perez +6000 +350 -250 -400
Alex Albon +8000 +700 -143 -400
Charles Leclerc +10000 +1000 +175 -200
Lando Norris +10000 +1000 +175 -225
Carlos Sainz +10000 +10000 +175 -286
Lance Stroll +10000 +1000 +175 -250
Esteban Ocon +15000 +1600 +175 -225
Pierre Gasly +20000 +2000 +300 -182
Sebastian Vettel +20000 +2800 +600 -118
Daniil Kyvat +50000 +10000 +800 +100
Antonio Giovinazzi +300000 +50000 +6000 +500
Romain Grosjean +300000 +50000 +6000 +500
Kevin Magnussen +300000 +50000 +6000 +500
George Russell +300000 +50000 +6000 +500
Kimi Raikkonen +300000 +50000 +6000 +400
Nicholas Latifi +400000 +75000 +10000 +900

Odds taken Oct. 22

Hamilton Set to Enjoy Historic Day

In addition to rewriting the history books, a win by Hamilton would also move the 36-year-old Englishman ever closer to a seventh career Formula 1 title. Hamilton arrives in Portugal sporting a lofty 69-point lead over Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas in the F1 Drivers Standings.

In addition, with podium finishes by both Hamilton and Bottas, combined with a poor showing by Red Bull Racing, Mercedes would be virtually assured of claiming yet another F1 Constructors crown.

Ricciardo on a Roll

With little intrigue existing at the top of the odds, and Formula 1 making its debut at the Algarve International Circuit, sports bettors face a challenge in determining value bets.

Weather could emerge as a factor, with the chances of rain on Sunday steadily increasing as the week has progressed. With the track at the Algarve sporting brand new asphalt, drivers could struggle to maintain a good grip on a rain-soaked track.

However, rain at lights out provides a golden opportunity for some drivers to gain an edge on the mighty Mercedes duo. Among them is Daniel Ricciardo, who is coming off his first podium finish in over two years last time out at the Eifel Grand Prix.

The 31-year-old has now finished among the top five in five of his past eight outings and offers solid value as a +300 bet to reach the podium once again this weekend.

Verstappen a Constant Threat

The move to Portugal also offers an opportunity for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. The 23-year-old has been arguably the best driver not named Hamilton on this season’s circuit, reaching the podium in the eight races he has finished, capped by a steady second-place finish two weeks ago in the Eifel Grand Prix.

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Verstappen has also been a consistent threat to record fastest lap all season long, achieving the feat for the second time this year by smashing the lap record two weeks ago at Nürburgring, a track that the Algarve International Circuit has been compared with.

In addition to sporting solid -143 odds of finishing in the top two on Sunday, Verstappen cannot be overlooked as a candidate to once again record the fastest lap, particularly on a wet track, with solid +250 odds.

Perez Poised for a Breakthrough?

Sergio Perez has continued to benefit from his time behind the wheel of the Pink Mercedes, climbing to fifth in the F1 Drivers Standings with back-to-back fourth-place performances. Perez’s run in Germany is all the more impressive considering he was unable to exploit a substantial upgrade package in the Eifel Grand Prix due to the cancellation of practice sessions because of inclement weather.

With past experience at the Algarve International Circuit, where he raced a decade ago in GP2 Series, and sufficient time to implement upgrades, Perez could be poised for a breakthrough as a +300 bet to reach the podium for the first time since 2018.

Conversely, it is tough to know what to expect from Perez’ Racing Point teammate Lance Stroll. The young Canadian has been in isolation since testing positive for COVID-19, and with little indication as to what toll the disease has taken on his body, he is likely best avoided by sports bettors this weekend.

The Picks: Max Verstappen fastest lap (+400); Sergio Perez top three (+350); Daniel Ricciardo top three (+300)

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