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Martin Truex Jr.’s NASCAR Cup Championship Odds Worsen Despite Toyota/Save Mart 350 Win

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 8:17 AM PST

Martin Truex Jr. NASCAR
Martin Truex Jr. is on a roll with two wins and a third-place result in his last four outings. Photo by Don Ramey Logan (Wikimedia Commons).
  • Martin Truex Jr. is coming off a win last week and has won two of his last four starts
  • Truex has four wins over his last nine starts; he’s also finished 10th or worse four times in that span
  • Kyle Busch has four straight top 5 finishes, including a win at Pocono

Martin Truex Jr. is coming off a win at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 but his average Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship odds have gone from +550 to +650 across a number of top sportsbooks. He has raced very well over the last month, but is he a good bet to win it all or is Kyle Busch still the smartest option on the board?

2019 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +250
Martin Truex Jr. +400
Kevin Harvick +600
Brad Keselowski +700
Joey Logano +800
Chase Elliott +1000
Denny Hamlin +1600
Kyle Larson +2000
Ryan Blaney +2000
Clint Bowyer +2000

Odds taken 06/27/19. 

Truex Picks Up Fourth Win At Sonoma

Truex is having himself quite the month. He won at Charlotte to end the month of May, then placed 35th at Pocono, third at Michigan, and won at Sonoma. He started eighth at Sonoma but ended up leading 59 laps as he worked his way up to the front.

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That now makes it four wins on the season for him and 23rd of his career. What’s more impressive is that those four wins have come in the last nine races, so he’s really stepped it up. He didn’t have a single win in his first nine races this season, although he did finish twice two times.

Consistency a Concern

One of the reasons bettors aren’t thrilled with Truex is consistency. He’s hit or miss in terms of either winning (or coming very close) or finishing outside of the top 10. As mentioned, he has four wins in his last nine starts with a third-place result. However, he also has finished 10th or worse the other four times.

Truex led 59 last week at Sonoma, but didn’t lead a single lap in the previous two races.

If you take a look at the laps led stat, the issue with consistency seems to be evident there too. He led 59 last week at Sonoma, but didn’t lead a single lap in the previous two races. He’s led laps in just two of his last six starts.

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He started the season similarly as he led just 14 laps in his first eight starts. It just feels like he’s not going to be consistent enough to win this thing outright.

Kyle Busch is on Fire

One of the other keys to Truex’s small drop is the performance of Kyle Busch. He’s not getting the attention or the spotlight he was receiving earlier in the year – that’s mostly going to Truex now – but Busch has been every bit as good.

Busch has finished in the top 5 in five straight races (including the All-Star Race), which is impressive. That includes a win a Pocono. Taking a look further back, he has finished outside of the top 10 just once this season, which is incredible.

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In terms of laps led, he has led laps in all but two of his last 15 starts. When you put that side-by-side with Truex, you can see the difference. And the points show it too. Truex – as good as he’s been over the last month – has collected 147 points. Busch, who has one less win in that span, has eclipsed him with 173.

Bet on Busch

As nice of a stretch as Truex has had here, it’s just starting (and continuing) to look like it’s Busch’s year. He’s had the best car on the circuit all year and he’s going to be hard to stop. He’s missed the top 10 just once this year, which means he’s on pace for an all-time type of a season. He’s the bet right now.

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