- Chase Elliott is the favorite this week at the Toyota / Save Mart 350 on June 6th, 2021
- Both Busch drivers could finish well this week but Kurt Busch as a top ten pick may be worth a look Sunday
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Sonoma
NASCAR heads west to California with a Sunday afternoon race after last week’s absolute dominance by Kyle Larson at the Coca-Cola 600. Chase Elliott is a +225 favorite to win yet another road race in the Toyota / Save Mart 350 odds. Martin Truex Jr. (+400) could be more of a favorite given how he has finished on road courses like Sonoma in the past. His odds to finish in the top three are listed at +110. Also, watch for drivers like Kurt Busch on the California track.
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Let’s take a look at the odds for the NASCAR Toyota / Save Mart 350 and figure out which drivers are the best bets.
NASCAR Toyota / Save Mart 350 Odds
|Driver||Odds to Win at DraftKings||Odds to Finish Top Three||Odds to Finish Top 10|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+400||+110||-530|
Odds as of June 3rd
Chase Elliott Favored to Win at Sonoma Raceway
NASCAR drivers run on the 2.52-mile long road track when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 4:00 PM EST. Road tracks have been extremely good to Elliott, who has won six times in 14 road races. That features seven top-fives and nine top-ten results. Elliott won the rain-shortened EchoPark Texas Grand Prix 400 as the race was stopped after 54 laps due to rain and dangerous track conditions.
Would anyone have caught Elliott in those final 14 laps? No one knows. What few can dispute is Elliott’s mastery of this discipline. Few drivers can come close to the level the No. 9 has reached early in his NASCAR career.
He has the ability to lead laps (289 of 1266 laps), and Elliott starts Sunday’s race from the second position. Now, there was some regret on how COTA was shortened.
Rick Hendrick was likely in position to win COTA one way or the other. Chase Elliott if NASCAR called it and Kyle Larson if Elliott was forced to pit.
With that in mind, Hendrick thought it was the right decision, but he felt for the fans. pic.twitter.com/SRKmvOi7P7
— Matt Weaver (@MattWeaverAW) May 24, 2021
The Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver was great at staying near the front of the field. Kyle Larson may have had the faster car, but Elliott was in front when the race was stopped.
Toyota / Save Mart 350 Recent Winners
|Year||Race Winner||Pole Position||Most Laps Led|
|2020||No race data — Pandemic||No race data||No race data|
|2019||Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing|
|2018||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
|2017||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
The 2020 race was not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic as racing in California was shut down at that time. The good news is that NASCAR stayed with the 2019 format. The 12-turn course features a total elevation change of 160 feet. There will be that long sweeping left, which will drive pit crews crazy when it comes to alignment adjustments. This expects to be the main challenge to drivers again on Sunday.
Should Martin Truex Jr. Be The Actual Favorite?
Sports bettors have varied histories to draw on as the race stays with the longer 12-turn format this year. Truex Jr. has taken another turn in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, but the No. 19 has been ridiculously good at Sonoma the past several races. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led the most laps three consecutive times, and his pit crew has mastered this track no matter the format. There are also his last five road results minus Texas.
Martin Truex Jr.'s last five road course results at non-Rovals and minus COTA are ….
1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd. pic.twitter.com/7yRRJuRctQ
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) June 2, 2021
Truex Jr. won both races since 2018, which vaults him to the top of driver averages at Sonoma. However, he is even second in overall road races since 2018 with an average driver finish of 8.4. That is only behind Chase Elliott’s 7.4. Again, both those wins came at Sonoma.
Can Kurt Busch Finally Shed the Bad Luck in 2021?
The Chip Ganassi Racing driver ended up 27th two weeks ago at Austin but had one of the faster-racing cars out there. He has done well on road courses and has won at Sonoma in the past.
Since 2011 at Sonoma, Kurt Busch has finished in the top 13 every race and has a 6.4 average finish!
In 2021, Busch hasn't finished better than 13th since February. pic.twitter.com/EMxk59G8HK
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) June 2, 2021
Busch has only won once in 19 road course races but again that includes ten top-ten results and seven top-five finishes. The No. 1 ran well at Austin, but a spin out and some bad pit strategy did him in. That has been an unfortunate theme in 2021.
While Kurt’s younger brother Kyle has a better chance to win on Sunday, Kurt’s +160 odds to finish in the top ten are quite a nice find. Sonoma is a delicate balance of adjustments. Even though it is only 90 laps, it requires discipline and patience that even fewer “road experts” possess. Kyle Larson has had the fastest car on this track the past three times in California. When does that turn into a win? This may be the year they figure out the balance.
The Picks: Kyle Larson to win (+800); Martin Truex Jr. to finish Top Three (+110); Kurt Busch to finish Top Ten (+160)
Top Pick: Chase Elliott to finish Top Three (-167)
Longshot: Kevin Harvick (+2000)
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