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Rio Olympics Odds – Neymar Leads Favored Brazil

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

copa2014.gov.br [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

With Euro 2016 underway, now is a great time to look ahead to a competition that often finds itself taking a backseat on the international soccer stage: the men’s Olympic tournament.

The countries that qualify for the Olympics do not actually field their best possible squads these days. There are a few reasons for this: first, rosters must be made up of players aged under 23, with three overage players per squad; second, FIFA does not require clubs to release players for the Olympics, and a handful of top talent is always held back; third, the tournament doesn’t have the same luster as the Euro or even the Copa America, which results in players skipping the Olympics to graze on more prestigious pastures.

On top of all that, this year’s Olympics has to compete with the Zika Virus scare going on in Brazil.

In other words, this is really shaping up to be a promising tournament.

All sarcasm aside, this year’s host is taking the Olympic tournament quite seriously. Brazil has captured just about every international soccer championship you could imagine, except for an Olympic gold. In 2012 in London, Brazil looked poised to obtain their first, but came up just short in the gold medal game against Mexico, losing 2-1.

It seems Brazil feels it is the perfect time to end their Olympic drought (at home), as many of their top players will be present in Rio.

Although the main chatter is all about Brazil, there will be 15 other countries present, each intent on extending Brazil’s struggles on the Olympic stage. Most countries have not finalized their three overage players, so the odds will evolve as the official announcements begin. But that doesn’t mean I can’t take an early look at the chances for all 16 teams competing in Brazil this August:

Olympic Men’s Soccer Odds:

Brazil: 5/4

As mentioned, Brazil is one of the few countries that tends to take the Olympics seriously. Unfortunately, that has not turned into much success, unless they’re satisfied with silver and bronze medals.

All signs are pointing to 2016’s Olympics as their opportunity to finally get over the hump. After Barcelona shockingly released Neymar to play for Brazil in the Olympics, PSG followed suit and released Marquinhos, one of the best young defenders in the game. On paper, Brazil is the clear favorite; the pressure of the gold medal drought may be the most difficult obstacle they face.

Argentina: 6/1

Winners of gold in two of the last three Olympics, Argentina will be viewed as Brazil’s top competition this August. Unfortunately, it does not appear Juventus is going to release young forward Paulo Dybala, despite Argentina including him on their preliminary roster. If Dybala is able to play, Argentina’s odds will get a little better.

Germany: 15/2

The current world champions embarrassed Brazil on their own soil in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup, 7-1, before taking down Argentina in the finals. However, since we have yet to hear any of the names who will be joining their under-23 team on this trip back to Brazil, it is awfully tough to say they can down the host country again.

Portugal: 15/1

It appears Cristiano Ronaldo will not be participating as one of the overage players for Portugal this summer, but will instead be representing his country at the Euros in France. They figure to play Germany in the quarters. They routed the Germans 5-0 in the U-21 Olympic qualifiers, but once Deutschland puts some of its top talent on the pitch, I don’t see a rematch going the same way.

Colombia: 20/1

Colombia received the final bid into the 2016 Olympics with a 3-2 victory over the United States in a CONMEBOL playoff. Unfortunately, their national captain, James Rodriguez, will sit out the Olympics in favor of the Copa America tournament. However, Colombia does benefit from a rather easy grouping (Sweden, Nigeria, and Japan), and should avoid Brazil until a possible gold medal matchup.

Mexico: 25/1

Mexico will head into the 2016 Olympics as defending champions. Their win in London was not only their first gold, but also their first-ever medal in soccer. They too will be missing one of their top players, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, due to the Copa America tournament.

The country does not seem overly concerned with the Olympics, and I wouldn’t expect to see them advance beyond the quarterfinals. Although, with the way the playoffs line up, it would actually benefit Mexico to not win their grouping. (A second-place finish would ensure they avoid Brazil until the finals, assuming Brazil wins their group, which isn’t a huge leap considering they face South Africa, Denmark, and Iraq.)

South Korea: 30/1

They will have to beat out either Germany or Mexico to advance out of the group stage, but the release of Son Heung-Min from Tottenham gives them some hope.

 

These teams are also in the tournament:

Algeria: 35/1

Japan: 40/1

Denmark: 60/1

Nigeria: 60/1

Sweden: 65/1

South Africa: 80/1

Iraq: 125/1

Honduras: 200/1

Fiji: 250/1

 

(Photo credit: copa2014.gov.br [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)

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