2019 UEFA Super Cup Odds & Pick: Liverpool vs Chelsea

Liverpool's Mo Salah celebrates
Books have set Mo Salah and Liverpool as -165 favorites to beat Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup. Photo By @brfootball(Twitter)
  • Liverpool at -165 favorites to defeat Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup
  • Chelsea are +475 underdogs to cop the Cup
  • Liverpool are 3-2 in past UEFA Super Cups, while Chelsea is 1-2

Sportsbooks see the UEFA Super Cup taking up residence at Anfield.

They’ve established UEFA Champions League winners Liverpool as heavy favorites to down Europa League champions Chelsea in Wednesday’s UEFA Super Cup.

2019 UEFA Super Cup Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Liverpool -1.0 (EVEN) -165 O 3.0 (+110)
Chelsea +1.0 (-120) +475 U 3.0 (-130)
Draw N/A +300 N/A

*Odds taken 8/13/19.

The match will be held in Turkey at Istanbul’s Vodafone Stadium.

Liverpool Face Injury Concerns

During Liverpool’s EPL season-opening 4-1 victory over Norwich, goalkeeper Alisson Becker was forced to leave the match due to a calf injury. He’s expected be out for a number of weeks.

Adrian subbed for Alisson, making his Liverpool debut. It’s expected that Andy Lonergan, who toured the USA with the club this summer, will be signed to serve as understudy to Adrian until Alisson regains his health.

Central midfielder Naby Keita is unlikely to be fit for the match due to a leg muscle strain. Right back Nathaniel Klyne is out six months following knee surgery.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp hinted that Sadio Mane, who came on as a sub against Norwich, was likely to be included in the starting 11 for the UEFA Super Cup.

Chelsea Also Facing Health Issues

Several Chelsea players are also dealing with knocks, and their status for Wednesday is doubtful. Chelsea manager Frank Lampard was forced to go young at several positions in their EPL opener and paid the price in a 4-0 loss to Manchester United.

Defensive midfielder N’Golo Kante continues to be plagued by a knee injury he suffered shortly before Chelsea’s Europa League final win over Arsenal. He again aggravated the injury against Manchester United and his status for the UEFA Super Cup is uncertain.

Winger Willian and defender Antonio Rudiger are also rebounding from injuries. Both will be on the subs bench for Wednesday’s match.

UEFA Super Cup Leans Toward UCL Winners

When Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 4-2 in last year’s UEFA Super Cup, it marked the first time in six years that the UCL winner did not cop the Super Cup.

The last UCL winner prior to Real Madrid to lose? Why, it was Chelsea in 2012, falling to Atletico Madrid 4-1.

The last three times the UCL winner fell in this match, the winner was Atletico Madrid. Thus, it would appear that one of the best things Liverpool has going for their side in the UEFA Super Cup is that they won’t be facing Atletico Madrid.

Historic Advantage to Liverpool

Liverpool owns a 3-2 record in the UEFA Super Cup. Chelsea is 1-2. Liverpool won most recently in 2005, dropping CSKA Moscow 3-1. They’ve not been beaten in the game since 1984, falling 2-0 to Juventus.

Chelsea’s lone win came in 1998, a 1-0 verdict over Real Madrid. Chelsea (2012-13), Sevilla (2014-15-16) and Bayern Munich (1975-76) are the only sides to lose successive UEFA Super Cups.

When both participants in the match are from the same country, the UCL winner owns a 4-2 edge.

What’s the Pick?

The loss of Alisson is a difficult blow for Liverpool to overcome. As was shown in the sub-par performance by Liverpool’s Loris Karius in the 2018 UCL final, poor goalkeeping is often the 100-percent root cause of failure on the pitch.

On the other hand, Chelsea is in the midst of a rebuild and minus Eden Hazard, are still searching for an identity. They’ll keep it close, but Liverpool wins the day.

Pick: Liverpool (-165)

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