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Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Odds & Prediction – Bundesliga Round 21

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Feb 4, 2022 · 6:54 AM PST

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
Bayern's Robert Lewandowski, right, celebrates after scoring the first goal of the match, on a penalty, during the German Bundesliga soccer match between RB Leipzig and FC Bayern Munich in Leipzig, Germany, Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
  • Bayern Munich takes on RB Leipzig in the 21st round of Bundesliga play on Saturday, February 5th at 12:30 pm ET
  • The Bavarians currently have a comfortable, six point lead atop the table, while RB Leipzig find themselves all the way back in sixth place
  • Get the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The international break is finally over and this weekend the Bundesliga kicks off their 21st matchday of the 2021-22 season. One of the highlight games of the weekend features Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig in a massive duel atop Germany’s premiere division.

Currently, Bayern Munich have a six-point lead over rivals Borussia Dortmund. While this lead might seem comfortable, all it would take is a Dortmund win vs Bayern on April 23rd and one more loss for Julian Nagelsmann’s men to lose their point advantage.

Conversely, for RB Leipzig, the remainder of the season will be used to fight for European contention. Obviously, too much was lost this summer with the departures of Nagelsmann, Dayot Upamecano, Ibou Konate and Marcel Sabitzer to make another title challenge. However, they have shown signs of life under new manager Domenico Tedesco, which is promising for the rest of their Bundesliga campaign.

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig BAY -1.5 (-108) | RBL +1.5 (-130) BAY -245 | RBL +575 | DRAW +410 Ov 3.5 (-108) | Un 3.5 (-114)

Odds as of Feb 3rd at Barstool Sportsbook


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Bayern Munich are the heavy favorites in this match with moneyline odds of -245 and this match is expected to be full of goals with minus odds on the over at 3.5.

RB Leipzig Looks to Keep Good Form Rolling

Unfortunately, Tedesco’s success is coming a little bit too late for RB Leipzig to steer their ship around this year. Since his arrival, RB Leipzig have won six from eight with a loss and a draw. Oddly enough, the two games they dropped points in were against Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld, two of the lowest ranked teams in Germany. Meanwhile, they collected wins against the likes of Manchester City, Borussia Monchengladbach and Mainz.

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga Statistics

Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
3.25 Goals per game 1.90
2.78 Expected goals per game 2.11
0.95 Goals allowed per game 1.15
0.91 Expected goals allowed per game 1.45
63.0% Possession % 58.6%
85.7% Passing Accuracy % 82.3%
20.5 Shots per game 14.0

The major change in the last eight games for RB Leipzig has been in their defense. Since Marsch’s departure, in games where xGA is tracked, they have only been expected to give up one goal per game. But, in the seven games prior to his sacking, that number was at 1.77 goals per game. Having Willi Orban back in the side has been a major boost at center-half as well.

Regardless, one thing to note is that RB Leipzig are still without Emil Forsberg. Additionally, Tyler Adams picked up a minor injury during international duty with the United States in World Cup qualifying, so he will be unavailable in the midfield.

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Bayern Munich’s Offense is a Tall Task for Anyone

The remaining 14 games are paramount for Bayern Munich to lift their tenth consecutive Meisterschale. Moreover, any victory against another top six side will be seen as a major boost for their Bundesliga odds. While RB Leipzig’s form is impressive, Bayern simply cannot be taken lightly.

Bayern Munich will be without the likes of Corentin Tolisso, Alphonso Davies of Canada, Eric Choupo-Moting and Bouna Sarr on Saturday. In reality, none of those absences make a difference.

Bayern Munich’s attack is loaded from all angles. Robert Lewandowski is a goal-scoring machine and his 23 goals are all you need to know about his efficiency in front of net.

With Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry as his support, they are simply impossible to defend. In fact, in just their last five games, they have poured in 19 goals. The last time out against RB Leipzig, Bayern outscored them 4-1, and were expected to win 4.2-0.5.

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is RB Leipzig to cover the spread at +1.5 with odds of -130. Despite these odds being a little short, this is a very valuable bet. RB Leipzig have only lost by more than one goal to Bayern Munich once in their last five H2H matches, drawing on three occasions.

Pick: RB Leipzig +1.5 (-130)

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