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Brazil vs Spain Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Soccer Gold Medal Game

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Aug 6, 2021 · 6:36 AM PDT

Brazil vs Spain
Brazil's Richarlison, center, celebrates with his teammates after scored his side's 2nd goal against Saudi Arabia during a men's soccer match at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Wednesday, July 28, 2021, in Saitama, Japan. (AP Photo/Martin Mejia)
  • Brazil plays Spain in the men’s soccer gold medal game at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on Saturday, August 7th at 7:30 am ET
  • Both sides needed 30 minutes of extra time in their semifinals to advance as Spain snuck by the hosts, Japan, in the last five minutes, and Brazil took down Mexico on penalties
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

The Olympic gold medal game for men’s soccer is finally here and two classic teams are ready to etch their names in history. While these rosters might be full of U23 talent, the meaning of winning Olympic gold for your country still stands firm. It might not be the most prestigious men’s soccer competition. However, it is Brazil vs Spain. You would be dealt a tough task if asked to find two more prevalent soccer giants in the world than those two countries.

Furthermore, these sides are gleaming with young talent. From the likes of Pedri and Dani Olmo to Richarlison Douglas Luiz, these teams are full of talent, making this final a must-watch. While both of these sides have drawn twice in their fives games in Tokyo, they still are yet to see defeat. Of course, at the end of the 90 or possibly 120 minutes on Saturday evening, one team will be picking up their silver medals and heading home.

Brazil vs Spain Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Brazil vs Spain BRA -0.5 (+140) | SPA +0.5 (-245) BRA +170 | SPA +215 | DRAW +185 Ov 2.5 (+160) | Un 2.5 (-205)

Odds as of Aug 5 at DraftKings

Brazil are the defending champions of this medal and will want to do their title defense justice against Spain. In 2016, Brazil defeated Germany in penalty kicks on home soil at the beautiful Maracana Stadium. Their opponents at this edition’s final did not participate in 2016 as they failed to qualify. The last time Spain medaled at the Olympics was all the way back in 2000, in Sydney, Australia.

Richarlison’s Scoring Ability Gives Brazil an Edge

Both of these sides are so close in terms of statistics and ability, it makes a match like this hard to call. Additionally, every soccer fan knows, a final can sometimes make games tense and take the life out of an otherwise thrilling side. While this might be the case, Brazil does have an edge that will help them against Spain.

That edge for AndrΓ© Jardine is 24 year-old forward, Richarlison. Whether you love or dislike the Everton striker, he is a natural goal scorer, and has proved that again at this summer’s Olympics. His five goals have spurred on Brazil, and to be fair, they might have been hard-pressed to win all three of the games they did without him.

With that being said, Spain do not have the same natural scorer in their starting eleven. In fact, Luis de la Fuente prefers a front three consisting of Dani Olmo, Mikel Oyarzabal and Rafa Mir. The trio have done well in the two knockout stage matches, but failed to produce much in the group stage. Spain do have a proficient defense to help keep Richarlison at bay, but the difference in attack could prove as the x-factor of this final.

Will Spain Run Out of Gas?

Nonetheless, my larger and more paramount concern for Spain remains to be their fitness levels. Six of their players in this current squad were also at the Euros and after a long club season, will their players be able to hold up another 90 minutes? Note, Brazil had the Copa America, but far less of their players attended both tournaments.

Brazil vs Spain Olympic Statistics

1.6 Goals per game 1.6
0.6 Goals conceded per game 0.6
57.2% Possession % 70.0%
16.0 Average shots per game 16.8

For Spain, strong performances from young players like Pedri and Pau Torres will be imperative. Their performances have held up, but you can see from their facial expressions that they are exhausted, and rightfully so.

Regardless, Spain do have every right to be in this final and have been impressive in their last four games. Drawing to Argentina is understandable and they have put together some good victories. Like any Spain side ever, they will try to control this game with possession using Pedri in the middle.

Brazil vs Spain Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is a draw in regular time with odds of +185. Both of these sides needed extra time in their semifinals to advance. It could be a sign of not having enough energy to really push on and score, which could play its part in this game. I do think Brazil will go on to achieve gold, but not until the latter stages.

Pick: Regular Time Draw moneyline (+185)

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