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Coppa Italia Quarterfinals Odds & Picks: Milan Derby and More from the Final 8

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Jan 25, 2021 · 7:49 PM PST

Coppa Italia
Inter Milan's Arturo Vidal celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during a Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Juventus at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • The Coppa Italia has reached the quarterfinals to be played from January 26-28, 2021
  • SPAL is the last remaining non-Serie A team in the competition
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets for the cup action here

This week in Italy the Coppa Italia reaches the final eight as the quarterfinal round takes place from Tuesday-Thursday. Seven Serie A sides remain, while one Serie B side, SPAL, is hoping to pull a massive upset over Juventus and reach the final four.

As with any cup competition, be sure to check the starting lineups prior to the match, as fixture congestion at this point in the season could cause some squad rotation.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Coppa Italia quarterfinals below.

Coppa Italia Quarterfinals Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Inter Milan vs AC Milan +100 +250 +280
Atalanta vs Lazio -118 +280 +280
Juventus vs SPAL -500 +550 +1400
Napoli vs Spezia -334 +450 +800

All odds taken Jan 25 at Bet365

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction

The first match of the Coppa Italia quarterfinals kicks off with a huge Milan Derby between Inter Milan vs AC Milan at 2:45 pm EST on Tuesday afternoon.

Both of the Milans made their debuts in this competition last round in the round of 16. For AC Milan, they were pushed to the brink against fellow Serie A side Torino, needing penalties to advance after drawing 0-0 in regulation. Meanwhile, Inter were also in play against Serie A competition last round, winning 2-1 on the road to Fiorentina.

Over in league play, both are coming off disappointing results this weekend. Leaders AC Milan were shocked 3-0 at home to Atalanta. It was the first time Milan failed to score a goal in the league since January 6, 2020, a streak of 38-straight league games with a goal. It’s now two losses in four for Milan in Serie A and both against top opponents, also losing 3-1 to Juventus.

Inter has now won just one in four in Serie A after drawing Udinese 0-0 on Friday. They had an impressive win (2-0) over Juve the match prior, but could only manage a draw and loss to Roma and Sampdoria respectively prior to that.

Milan got their first win in this rivalry in five matches when they won 2-1 in the league back on October 17. Prior to that, Inter were victorious in both meetings last season, 4-2 and 2-0. Inter also won both meetings in the 2018/19 season as well.

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In that most recent 2-1 Milan win, all three goals came in the first half. A bet on OVER 1.5 first-half goals to happen again has odds of +150 on Tuesday. The expected goals (xG) for both teams in that match were 2.3 (Milan) and 2.4 (Inter).

Milan are also set to be without starting keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma (suspension) but have recently welcomed Zlatan Ibrahimovic back, with the star striker scoring twice last week versus Cagliari. A both teams to score bet could be a good parlay inclusion at (-175), but goals coming from both sides and at least three total goals looks like the best value.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-110)

Atalanta vs Lazio Prediction

On Wednesday at 11:45 am EST fifth-place Atalanta hosts seventh-place Lazio in Coppa Italia play.

In the round of 16 Atalanta took care of Cagliari 3-1 at home, while Lazio edged past Parma. With the score tied 0-0, Lazio got the winner with a 90′ own goal by Parma. Despite falling behind early, Parma did come back strong in the second half overall and held 52-percent possession with nine attempts and three shots on target.

Both teams have been on fire in Serie A play. Atalanta, after defeating AC Milan 3-0 on Saturday are undefeated in ten league matches and 13 overall. In their past six home matches overall, La Dea have only failed to score at least three goals once, where they’ve outscored opponents 18-3 in those matches.

After defeating Sassuolo 2-1 on Sunday, Lazio has now won four-straight and is undefeated in five in Serie A, and six overall. In Lazio’s past five wins they’ve scored multiple goals in each, outscoring their opponents 11-3. It’s worth noting though that four of the five wins came at home. Away from the Stadio Olimpico, I Biancocelesti have won just one of their past four.

These teams have exchanged plenty of goals in recent competitions of late. Atalanta won 4-1 earlier this season, while last season the teams drew 3-3 and Atalanta won 3-2 at home. The last time they met in Coppa Italia play came in 2019 when Lazio won 2-0 in Atalanta though.

La Dea will have the rest advantage having played Saturday, compared to Lazio having played on Sunday. Again, it’s hard not to like goals in this one and both teams scoring (-188) seems likely. At home, with the rest advantage, I’m giving the slight edge to Atalanta though.

Pick: Atalanta to Win (-118)

Juventus vs SPAL Prediction

The second match on Wednesday sees current champs Juventus hosting the only remaining non-Serie A team left in the Coppa Italia, SPAL, at 2:45 pm EST at Allianz Stadium.

Juve looked to be on their way to a straightforward win over Genoa in the round of 16. Up 2-0 just 23 minutes into the match, Genoa would fight back and send the game to extra-time. It was there, in the 104′ minute where Hamza Rafia secured passage for Juve into the next round. With 13 shots on target and 24 attempts, on another day, perhaps Juve could’ve put this match to bed sooner.  In the league, Juve bounced back from a 2-0 defeat to Inter, with a 2-0 win over Bologna on Sunday.

SPAL has been competing in this competition as far back as the second round when they won in penalties at home to Bari after drawing 0-0 in regulation. They again won on penalties away to Crotone in the third round after being drawn 1-1. In the fourth round, they won 2-0 at home to Monza and finally won 2-0 away to Sassuolo in the round of 16. The Sassuolo win is impressive, however, the Neroverdi were reduced to ten men in the 47′ minute, prior to both SPAL goals. Still, Sassuolo held 64-percent of the possession.

With SPAL now in Serie B, they and Juventus haven’t played this season. However, last season while SPAL was still in Italy’s top flight, Juve won both meetings, 2-0 at home and 2-1 on the road.

So long as Andrea Pirlo fields a strong lineup this has to be the end of the line for SPAL. Even Ronaldo, who started on the bench in the last round, came on as a substitute and it seems likely we’ll see the Portuguese star again on Wednesday. SPAL are the fourth-place team in Serie B right now. And on the road, they are just 3-4-3 (WDL), scoring nine and conceding 11.

Juventus to win to nil (-138) could be in the cards but can always be a little dangerous should SPAL nick a goal. I’ll settle for a Juve win by two or more goals instead.

Pick: Juventus -1.5 (-154)

2024 Serie A Odds Tracker
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Napoli vs Spezia Prediction

The final quarterfinal match takes place on Thursday with Napoli (sixth Serie A) hosting Spezia (15th) at 3:00 pm EST.

Current champions of the competition, Napoli, began play in this year’s tournament last round and defeated Empoli 3-2.

In Serie A, they had won back-to-back matches heading into the weekend but suffered a 3-1 road defeat to Hellas Verona.

Spezia entered the Coppa Italia in the third round and defeated Cittadella 2-0 on the road. In the fourth round they beat Bologna 4-2, also on the road. In the round of 16, Spezia actually found themselves leading AS Roma 2-1, however, the I Giallorossi would draw level, pushing the match to extra-time. Two Roma red cards in extra-time helped lead Spezia to a 4-2 win, which would later go down officially as 3-0. This, because the Sporting Judge of Legia Serie A ruled Roma had used an extra sub in the match.

In league play, Spezia has lost just one of their past four matches, but that did come on the weekend, a 4-3 defeat to Roma. Spezia fell behind 3-1, but fought back to draw level in the 90′ minute, only to concede a fourth and deciding goal just two minutes later in the 92′.

Spezia are new to Serie A this season, but we’ve actually just seen this matchup earlier this month. On January 6, Spezia traveled to Naples and pulled a shock result, defeating the Gli Azzurri 2-1. All three goals came in the second half. Andrea Petagna scored first for Napoli, before Mbala N’Zola leveled through a penalty and Tommaso Pobega scored the winner for Spezia. Napoli did hold 57-percent possession and an edge in attempts (27-8) and shots on target (11-4) though.

As strong as Napoli has been at times this season (they won 6-0 just two matches ago), they have dealt with some setbacks as well. In their past eight in the league, they are just 3-1-4 (WDL). They also showed as recent as the last round that they can concede. In fact, across their past 12 matches in all competitions, they have conceded at least once in 11 matches.

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The fixture list is also piling up as last Wednesday they were involved in the Super Cup final against Juventus where they lost 2-0. A letdown which clearly carried over into their weekend match with Verona.

Because of each team’s stature in the league, I think there is some great value on this Coppa Italia match. We just saw Spezia pull the upset over Napoli this month so an outright win could be possible. Still, it will be a tough ask. Spezia on the handicap of +1.5 is an option at -108. If you fancy a high-scoring match the Spezia team total of OVER 1.5 at +350 is in play and so too is both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 at +120. To me, that is probably the best bet, but you can even find both teams to score at a very attractive -110.

Napoli will always be a threat to score, while Spezia is 15-4 to OVER 2.5 totals in Serie A. Both teams have scored in 13/19 Spezia matches.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-110)

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