At Odds of 58-1, Do the Portland Timbers Offer Value to Win MLS Cup 2019?

• The Portland Timbers are riding a two-game winning streak
• Jeremy Ebobisse has been a key to the turnaround
• The Timbers won’t play a home game until June 1

The Portland Timbers got off to a slow start in their 2019 MLS season, but two wins have seen them gain ground on a Western Conference playoff position.

The Timbers’ MLS Cup odds have been on a roller coaster ride so far this year. Opening among the contenders at an average of +1200, their slow start saw those odds balloon out to as high as +8000 last month.

The current winning streak has seen their odds begin to shorten again, now at an average of +5800.

2019 MLS Cup Odds

*Odds taken 05/01/19

While Portland are still nowhere near the top 10 favorites for MLS Cup 2019, could this be the time for an investment?

Timbers Weathering Long Road Trip

It took until their seventh game of the year, but Portland finally found the win column on April 20th against the Columbus Crew. Playing against their old coach Caleb Porter, the Timbers got their first win (3-1) and held an opponent to fewer than two goals scored for the first time all year.

On Saturday, despite going down early in Toronto, Portland replied with two goals to come away victorious 2-1. It was Toronto’s first home loss of the year. More impressively, both wins came against teams currently in playoff positions in the East.

Head coach Giovanni Savarese has tinkered with his lineup and adjusted to a 4-4-2 formation which has paid off.

Another key to their turnaround has been the efforts of 22-year-old Jeremy Ebobisse. He scored the game winner off a diving header against Toronto and added a goal in the Columbus game as well.

One of the keys to Portland’s turnaround has been the efforts of 22-year-old Jeremy Ebobisse.

In eigth games this year he now has four goals, which is two more than he had in nine games last season.

The slow start for last year’s MLS Cup finalists hasn’t been helped by the fact their home field, Providence Park, has been undergoing renovations.

"[Merritt Paulson] sees the unveiling of the 'new' Providence Park on June 1st as a statement that the Timbers are prepared to keep up."@PaulTenorio & @TheAthleticSCCR on our stadium renovations and more (paywall): https://t.co/M6z9CNxNPd | #RCTID pic.twitter.com/Wm0HXIbbWR

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) April 25, 2019

The construction will see Portland play out another four games on the road before they return home.

However, It won’t be the easiest stretch of games considering three of the four (RSL, Houston, and Philadelphia) are currently playoff teams. Their lone game against a non-playoff team will be a Cascadia rivalry match in Vancouver on May 10th.

Home Field on the Horizon

If Portland can at least tread water during that time, they can look forward to their first home match of the season come June 1st against LAFC. Not the best opponent in terms of degree of difficulty for their return home, but still, the support of the Timbers Army is not far off.

Diego Valeri delivered his fifth and sixth assists of the season today, tied for most in MLS in 2019.#StatMan Three | https://t.co/MncIexxWcF | #RCTID #TORvPOR pic.twitter.com/dukMEhfGcN

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) April 27, 2019

And it’s support they thrive off. Each of the past two years Portland was 11-2-4 at home.

In 2016, despite missing the playoffs by two points, they were also 12-3-2 at Providence Park.

"This is our team. This is the Portland Timbers that we know."

Coach Savarese on our second straight win. #RCTID #TORvPOR pic.twitter.com/xEWPwFPwvC

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) April 27, 2019

After their match to LAFC, they’ll receive some time off with the MLS break for the Gold Cup.

Upon return, they’ll play five of nine at home before a run of of 10 straight home matches starting August 10th.

Timbers are a Long-Term Investent

Are the Timbers the best bet for MLS Cup? I don’t think so. Your LAs (both) and Seattles of the world look to be strong contenders right now.

But they also aren’t as bad as their winless record from a couple weeks ago and previous +8000 odds would have you think. They can still be found for +6600.

Now that they’ve proven they can win on the road, there is at least hope they can regroup and put themselves in a position to make up ground going forward and into the second half of the season.

#PTFC target Brian Fernández scored his 12th goal of #Clausura2019 tonight, giving #Necaxa a short-lived lead against Monterrey.

The 24 year old Argentine attacker is reportedly set to join Portland for $10M+ before #MLS transfer window closes on May 7.#MTYvsNEC #LigaMX #RCTID pic.twitter.com/xncfgXY3DL

— Joga Bonito (@Jasoninho10) April 28, 2019

It was only last year we saw DC rebound in the second half of the season when their own new stadium opened and they played almost exclusively in DC late in the year.

With the home advantage coming, the possible signing of Argentine attacker Brian Fernández, and a renewed sense of confidence around the club, you could do worse than grabbing a little piece of Portland at these long odds and hoping they can make a late playoff push.