- FA Cup replay time in England this week
- Spurs and Saints clash at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium in tie of the round
- Liverpool to play a second-string in home tie at Shrewsbury but still odds-on
It’s FA Cup replay week in England, with six fourth-round ties still undecided. Most of the action kicks off this afternoon, with the final game taking place in north London tomorrow when Tottenham entertain Southampton for the final place in the fifth round.
The usual array of David vs Goliath match-ups are on offer to the bettor and so we’ll take a look and see what value we can find.
English FA Cup 2020 – Odds
|Derby||-1, -1.5 +109||-217||O 2.5 -115|
|Northampton||+1, +1.5 -129||+580||U 2.5 -105|
|Birmingham||-0.5 +114||+114||O 2.5 +100|
|Coventry||+0.5 -134||+235||U 2.5 -120|
|Cardiff City||-0.5 -108||-108||O 2.5 -114|
|Reading||+0.5 -112||+265||U 2.5 -106|
|Liverpool||-0.5, -1 +118||-108||U 2.5, 3 -125|
|Shrewsbury||+0.5, +1 -138||+260||O 2.5, 3 +105|
|Oxford United||+0.5 -121||+255||O 2.5 -109|
|Newcastle United||-0.5 +101||+101||U 2.5 -111|
|Tottenham||-0.5, -1 -110||-135||O 2.5, 3 +101|
|Southampton||+0.5, +1 -110||+350||U 2.5, 3 -121|
All odds taken Feb 4.
Pick 1 – Tottenham vs Southampton (Wednesday, 2:45 pm EST)
This has the makings of the tie of the round, with nothing to choose between these two EPL teams after a 1-1 draw at St. Mary’s. With Spurs way off the pace in the league and looking ill-equipped to repeat their Champions League heroics of last season, this competition represents their best chance of silverware, so Jose Mourinho will go full-strength for this one.
The Spurs manager will also be buoyed by his team beating Man City 2-0 at the weekend, a game in which they rode their luck but sealed the points with two late goals after City had been reduced to ten men. While one of the heroes from Sunday, Steven Bergwijn, will be unavailable due to having only recently signed and Harry Kane is still injured, Mourinho will unleash his remaining big guns on Saints.
FULL-TIME Leicester 1-2 Southampton
— Premier League (@premierleague) January 11, 2020
For their part, Southampton have well and truly blown away any lingering threat of relegation with a string of fine performances and results, and in Danny Ings, they have the EPL’s most in-form striker. Saints are full of confidence and will really fancy this, with good reason.
It may need extra-time to separate these two though, possibly even a penalty shoot-out, so for me there is value in the draw after 90 minutes.
Pick. Southampton to win after extra-time / The draw after 90 minutes (+255)
Pick 2 – Liverpool vs Shrewsbury (Tuesday, 2:45 pm EST)
This will be a strange one. This replay has fallen in the two-week period intended to be the EPL winter break, and so Jurgen Klopp and his first-team squad will play no part in this fixture. Instead, they will be in sunnier climes as part of a pre-planned break, designed to recharge their batteries ahead of the final straight of what could be a momentous season for them.
Liverpool’s team will be led by Under-23s coach Neil Critchley and the team will comprise of the bulk of his Under-23 team inter-mingled with a few who have only been on the fringes of Klopp’s squad. It will have a similar look to the team that beat Everton at Anfield in the third round.
Shrewsbury’s thrilling comeback from 2-0 down in the first game will have given them a massive confidence boost and, while it was a mixed Liverpool team, by the time the final whistle went it included Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino. The Shrews were worthy of a replay and are now expected to take more than 5,000 fans to Anfield in the hope of causing a huge upset. The prize is a trip to Chelsea in the fifth round.
List of Teams to get a better result than Town against Liverpool this season…
– Aston Villa
— Shrewsbury Town FC (@shrewsweb) January 26, 2020
Shrewsbury manager Sam Ricketts looks set to select a similar team to the first game, with new signings Conor McAleny, Kayne Ramsay and Harry Burgoyne all unavailable as a result of being registered after the first match.
So, this will be fascinating and the Shrews have a chance. Roared on by their 5,000, I can see this useful Shrewsbury team edging this in 90 minutes and causing a massive cup shock.
Pick: Shrewsbury to win (+260)
Pick 3 – Oxford Utd vs Newcastle Utd (Tuesday, 2:45 pm EST)
While Oxford will be more than happy to take Newcastle back to the Kassam Stadium for this replay, they know they had chances to win this first time around. On the day, Newcastle were disjointed and lacking in ideas and, but for a couple of missed chances late on, Oxford would not have needed a second attempt to win the tie.
The Toon also needed a replay to get through the third round, when they (again) faced lower-league opposition, in the form of League One Rochdale. Then it was a late Rochdale equalizer that took the game to a replay at St James’, which Newcastle went on to win 4-1.
The prize for the winners here is an away tie at West Bromwich Albion and Oxford will feel confident. They are the second-top scorers in League One and so carry a goal threat that will trouble the Toon. But, Steve Bruce’s Newcastle needs a cup run to keep their season alive and fans on board, so as they are still in plus money, there is value in the +101 for the away win. It’ll be a close one though.
Pick: Newcastle to win (+101)