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FC Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Feb 15, 2022 · 12:00 PM PST

FC Salzburg vs Bayern Munich
Salzburg's Andreas Ulmer, right, challenges Bayern's Serge Gnabry during the Champions League Group A soccer match between Bayern Munich and RB Salzburg at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Czech Republic, Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
  • RB Salzburg takes on Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Round of 16 duel on Wednesday, February 16th at 3:00 pm ET
  • The Bavarians were perfect in the group stage finishing on 18 points with a goal differential of +19 in just six matches
  • Get the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The Champions League returns this week and one game to look out for on Wednesday is between RB Salzburg and Bayern Munich. Obviously, Bayern are one of the few heavy hitters in the tournament still standing. In fact, they have the second-best Champions League odds at +350, only trailing Man City with odds of +275.

Bayern Munich cruised through the group stages, winning all their games against Benfica, Barcelona and Dynamo Kyiv quite handily.

But, it was not as easy for the RB Salzburg. The Austrian outfit did become the first-ever Austrian side to advance to the knockout rounds. However, it took ten points for them to clinch second place in their group with Lille, Sevilla and Wolfsburg. Victories over Sevilla and Lille specifically, highlighted the group stage for Die Rotten Bullen.

RB Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
RB Salzburg vs Bayern Munich SAL +1.5 (-113) | BAY -1.5 (-106) SAL +700 | BAY -278 | DRAW +450 Ov 3.5 (-106) | Un 3.5 (-118)

Odds as of Feb 14th at Barstool Sportsbook

Additionally, the odds table shows that RB Salzburg are the heavy underdogs in this match with moneyline odds of +700. While this might seem unrealistic, there is some value in them covering the +1.5 spread with odds of -113.


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Do Bayern Have Chinks in Their Armor?

Now, let us switch gears back to Bayern Munich for a minute. They have played their last five matches without first-choice goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer. The German goalkeeper had surgery on his right knee and will be out for both matches against RB Salzburg.

In turn, 33-year-old goalie Sven Ulreich is filling in as his replacement. Unfortunately, it has not been smooth sailing for far for Ulreich in net.

As a matter of fact, Bayern have lost two out of their last five Bundesliga matches against Borussia Monchengladbach and Bochum. The loss against Bochum was particularly concerning, considering the fact Julian Nagelsmann’s side gave up four goals to a team in 11th place.

RB Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Champions League Statistics

RB Salzburg
Bayern Munich
1.33 Goals per game 3.67
1.57 Expected goals per game 2.32
1.00 Goals allowed per game 0.50
1.02 Expected goals allowed per game 0.57
49.5% Possession % 59.6%
76.2% Passing Accuracy % 88.7%
11.8 Shots per game 17.5

Also, in that same match Bayern’s xGA was only 1.3. The fact that they conceded four is a huge red flag for both Ulreich and Dayot Upamecano. While RB Salzburg do not have a lethal attack, the likes of Karim Ademyi and Noah Okafor make for a youthful and exciting duo.

The most important thing they can do on Wednesday is challenge Bayern in front of goal and put shots on net. Ulreich has the worst average match rating of any Bayern Munich player, and so much pressure will be riding on his shoulders. Furthermore, Bayern will also be without the likes of Alphonso Davies and Leon Goretzka.

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RB Salzburg are Playing with Zero Risk at Home

For RB Salzburg, this match is perfect for them. They are playing at home, in front of their fans and get to represent Austrian football in a place they have never been before. As a result, expect their 33-year-old manager to be brave and try to get a big result at home.

It is true that they have to brace themselves a bit for Bayern’s attack. The likes of Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane could put any defender on their backside and they are all extremely efficient in front of goal.

In truth, RB Salzburg have a good defense; Maximilian Wöber and Rasmus Kristensen are two standout players. But, we all remember when these teams were in the same group in 2020. Bayern won both matches by an aggregate score of 9-3, which is a result RB Salzburg wants to avoid at all costs.

RB Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Best Bet

Overall, the best bet here is Salzburg to cover the +1.5 spread with odds of -113. This bet has good value and is a sleeper pick given some of Bayern’s recent struggles.

Pick: Salzburg +1.5 (-113)

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