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FIFA Women’s World Cup Final Odds & Picks: USA vs Netherlands

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 4:01 PM PDT

Alex Morgan
Alex Morgan scored the game-winning goal on her 30th birthday against England and celebrated by pretending to sip tea. Photo by @GolicAndWingo (Twitter).
  • The Women’s World Cup Final is set to kick off Sunday between USA and Netherlands
  • The United States Women’s National Team (USWNT) is looking to win their record fourth World Cup title
  • The Netherlands are competing in just their second World Cup and are making their first finals appearance

The FIFA 2019 Women’s World Cup is down to the final two teams to meet on Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 11:00 am EST.

Tournament favorites USA were tipped to lift the trophy since the competition began, when they entered with odds of +300. Now into Sunday’s final, a bet on USA to lift the trophy is paying a drastically shortened -600. While the Netherlands were paying +1200 odds ahead of the competition and are now +425 ahead of the final.

USA vs Netherlands WWC Final Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total To Lift Trophy Odds
USA -1.0 (-150) -260 O 2.5 (-120) -600
Netherlands +1.0 (+125) +700 U 2.5 (-105) +425
Draw N/A +375 N/A N/A

Odds taken July 5, 2019.

USA were first to stamp their ticket to the finals, by virtue of their 2-1 victory over England on Tuesday in the semifinals. If there was any value left on a straight USA World Cup win, that was likely the moment to make it. USA were +120 favorites ahead of their quarterfinal against France and -180 ahead of the semi with the Lionesses.

For USA, reaching this stage of the tournament is nothing new. In fact, they are the only nation to have played in all eight semifinals in the existence of the competition. They are three-time champions, once a runner-up, and three-time third place finishers. Tuesday’s win means they will play in the final for the third consecutive World Cup.

Their opponents, the Netherlands, have much less experience in the tournament. Netherlands competed in their first World Cup in 2015, losing in the round of 16. This time around they reached the semifinals against Sweden, where they advanced with a 1-0 win, scoring in extra-time.

The two sides have little recent history together. Their last match was a 3-1 USA win during a friendly in 2016.

USA Are Early Scorers

If you’re a trend bettor, you may find some value in betting a goal, or specifically a USA goal, to be scored within the opening 15 minutes of Sunday’s final. Odds on the first goal being scored in the opening ten or twenty minutes are currently +325 and +375 respectively.

In six matches, the Americans have never failed to not score an opening goal within the 12-minute mark. That streak continued Tuesday, when Christen Press, starting in place of the injured Megan Rapinoe, got the Americans on the board early ten minutes in, with a headed goal past backup English keeper Carly Telford.

YouTube video

The early lead wouldn’t stand for long though, as England’s Ellen White leveled the score nine minutes later. The goal, was White’s sixth of the tournament, which gave her the lead over Alex Morgan for the Golden Boot race who had five.

In six matches, the Americans have never failed to not score an opening goal within the 15-minute mark.

However, it didn’t take long for Morgan, celebrating her 30th birthday on the day, to reply with a goal of her own in the 31st minute, which turned out to be the eventual game-winner.

She also took the opportunity to troll English supporters with a tea-sipping celebration.

The second half brought plenty of drama, with two VAR decisions involving White. First, a decision which overturned her potential game-tying goal due to an offside. And second, a decision which awarded England a golden opportunity to draw level through a penalty when White was taken down in the box.

However, English captain Steph Houghton delivered a weak attempt on goal which was saved by USA keeper Alyssa Naeher. It was enough for the USWNT to hold onto the win.

Sunday’s final will also have implications for the scoring race in the tournament. While it’s likely far from the forefront of the players’ minds, both Morgan and Rapinoe have a real shot at the Golden Boot award. White will have something to say about it though, as she’ll be competing in England’s third place match against Sweden on Saturday.

Morgan is currently at -200 odds to win the award.

Netherlands Make First Finals Appearance

The second semifinal took place on Wednesday between Netherlands and Sweden. The Dutch topped their group, before defeating Japan in the round of 16 and Italy in the quarterfinals. They faced the Swedes who were second in their group and winners over Canada and Germany in the knockout rounds.

For large portions of Wednesday’s match, it was Sweden who looked like the stronger side, yet were unable to finish their chances. Both teams came close to breaking the deadlock in the second half, with Sweden hitting the post in the 56′ minute and Netherlands the crossbar in the 63′ minute.

YouTube video

However, neither were able to score within the opening 90 minutes and extra-time was required. Having been subbed off at halftime with a toe injury, Netherlands played much of the match without star Lieke Martens.

It would prove not to matter, as midfielder Jackie Groenen would step up with her first goal of the tournament at the 99′ minute mark. The goal would go on to hold up as the winner and send Netherlands to their nation’s first World Cup final.

Yet playing in a major final is nothing new for the Dutch. Netherlands are the current title holders of the 2017 European Championships. With six wins in that competition and another six so far at the World Cup, they are riding a 12-match winning streak in major competitions.

But while Netherlands have no doubt ascended the ranks of the women’s game and have plenty of offensive weapons to give the US fits, it is worth noting that they’ve yet to lead at half in any of their past ten matches.

Against a US team that has been scoring early, they could find themselves in a hole they aren’t used to playing out of. They also very much were a side that looked lucky to advance past both the Japanese and Swedes.

Women’s World Cup Final Best Bets

I’ve said all along the Netherlands’ side of the bracket offered good value. While I’m pleased to be sitting on a 12-1 ticket on the Dutch, hedging opportunities with USA as massive -600 favorites are very limited.

With Netherlands just barely getting by in two of their past three matches and being without, or with a limited Martens, I can’t say I like their chances in this final. But I also wouldn’t lay -600 with USA at this point if you hadn’t bet them previously.

USA vs Netherlands WWC Stats

USA
VS
Netherlands
6-0-0 Record 6-0-0
24 Goals For 11
3 Goals Against 3
112 Shots 82
47 Shots on Target 28
38 Corners 17
57.5% Average Possession 59.2%

So instead I want to list several different bets available for wagering in this match where I see some value. Keeping in mind the Americans’ ability to score early and their experience in this competition. Both USA and Netherlands have also scored in all of their matches this tournament.

As well, 2-1 scorelines have been the result in six of the combined 12 matches these two have played in this WWC. Additionally, the value is there for the taking for Dutch anytime goalscorers. Vivianne Miedema is the first Dutch player listed and has odds of +240. Lieke Martens is listed at +400.

Women’s World Cup Prop Bets

Prop Odds
USA to win & both teams to score – Yes +230
USA to be winning at 30 minute mark +165
Both teams to score +105
Both teams to score and over 2.5 match goals +150
USA to win and over 1.5 match goals -165
Will a goal be scored in both halves – Yes -140
Will a penalty be awarded – Yes +175
USA to score in both halves – Yes +125

I think any of or a combination of the above bets should offer some value, but I’ll settle on a USA win with both teams scoring.

Best Bet: USA to win & both teams to score (+230)

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