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Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga Matchday 20 Odds & Pick

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 8:17 AM PDT

Hoffenheim Stadium
Hoffenheim entertain Bayer Leverkusen at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena at the weekend with both teams battling it out for a place in next season's UEFA Champions League. Photo By Jsresport (Wiki Commons)
  • Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen scrapping it out for fourth in Bundesliga
  • Leverkusen looking for four wins on the spin
  • Hoffenheim’s home advantage could be key

It’s fifth versus seventh in the Bundesliga this weekend as Bayer Leverkusen visit Hoffenheim’s PreZero Arena on Saturday, February 1, at 9:30 am EST with both still very much in the hunt for the lucrative fourth place.

As ever, the Bundesliga is more than capable of throwing up surprise results and, as such, offers plenty of value for the bettors. So we’ll have a look and see if we can identify some for this fixture.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hoffenheim pk, +0.5 ( +100) +205 O 3  ( -111)
Bayer Leverkusen pk, -0.5  (-120) +117 U 3   (-109)
Draw N/A +260 N/A

All odds taken Jan. 30

Plus-Money on Offer for Both, So Close One Awaits

Bayer Leverkusen starts as favorites on Saturday, but both are still in plus-money. Both teams have had to contend with some difficult spells in the first half of the season but still find themselves well in contention for an assault on the European places over the next four months. As things stand, just four points separate them, with Leverkusen having the slight advantage.

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When the two teams met in Leverkusen early in the season it ended goalless, so everything points to this being another close one and immediately brings the draw into play, on offer at a reasonable +260. Worth noting though is that in this equivalent fixture last season, Hoffenheim ran out comfortable 4-1 winners – goals from Ishak Belfodil (2), Sven Bender 51’(own goal) and Andrej Kramaric 79’. Oddly, 4-1 was the scoreline in each of the previous three games prior to the 0-0.

Hoffenheim Leads Recent Head-to-Heads

Another fact worth noting is that Hoffenheim is unbeaten in their last three head-to-heads with Leverkusen, and so will go into this one with confidence, especially knowing that a win will take them to within a single point of their opponents. Die Kraichgauer has Bayern Munich up next, on February 4, so will be keen to at least not lose ground on Leverkusen, knowing the Bayern game will be a massive challenge.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head Stats

Bayer Leverkusen
7th Position in Bundesliga table 5th
9 / 19 Wins/games played 10 / 19
7 Losses 5
29 Goals scored 30
30 Goals conceded 22
30 Bundesliga points 34
2 European campaigns 24

Leverkusen’s Meaner Defense

The table above shows there is little to choose between these two, with Leverkusen’s higher placing being only by virtue of one extra win and two fewer losses. In terms of goals scored, there is little to separate them but significantly, Saturday’s visitors have a much better defense, conceding 22 compared to Hoffenheim’s 30.

But Hoffenheim is in good form and last weekend went to relegation-threatened Werder Bremen and came away with an impressive 4-1 win. Leverkusen also had a good weekend and ran out comfortable 3-0 winners at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf – goals coming from Kai Havertz, Lars Bender and Lucas Alario.

Adamyan, Kramaric and Volland Lead The Stats

For Hoffenheim, Sargis Adamyan and  Andrej Kramaric jointly lead their stats with five goals and one assist each, closely followed by Jurgen Locadia on goals, while for Leverkusen Kevin Volland has been their main man with seven goals and six assists, followed by Lucas Alario with six goals and one assist.

Hoffenheim is full of goals at the moment but is conceding too and all of their last five clashes have seen a total of three or more goals scored in them – one for the bettors to note.

When the two teams met in Leverkusen early in the season it ended goalless, so everything points to this being another close one and immediately brings the draw into play

For Leverkusen, the winter break worked well for them and they have been flying since with two consecutive wins by three-goal margins. They also won their final game before the break, so that’s three wins on the spin. While they haven’t drawn for 11 games, they have scored three times in each of their last four, so there is nothing here to suggest this is going to be another 0-0 draw.

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Home Advantage May Be Decisive

In terms of team news, Hoffenheim manager Alfred Schreuder is without Oliver Baumann and Ishak Belfodil through injury and Robert Skov and Philipp Ochs are doubtful. For Leverkusen’s Peter  Bosz, he’ll definitely be without Exequiel Palacios (suspended) and Charles Aranguiz (injured).

Having said earlier that the stats suggest plenty of goals, soccer being soccer it’s not inconceivable that it could be another scoreless draw but I can’t see it. There’s too much-attacking talent and confidence in play here for there not to be goals and both teams are full of confidence, so the three or more goals looks an obvious bet.

While the visitors start as favorites, I can see home advantage giving Hoffenheim the edge and them winning by the odd goal

Pick: Hoffenheim to win (+205)

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