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Leicester’s Jamie Vardy Now Favored at +313 Odds to Win EPL’s Golden Boot

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

Nov 27, 2019 · 6:35 AM PST

Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy has sparked Leicester City's impressive climb to second place in the Premier League, potting a league-leading 11 goals this season. Photo By Pioeb (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Jamie Vardy’s average Golden Boot odds have slipped to +313
  • Vardy leads the scoring charts by two clear goals
  • Harry Kane is the current second-favorite

Jamie Vardy’s average EPL Golden Boot odds were +600 last month. With Leicester continuing to perform and looking every bit like a top-four side, Vardy has seen his average fall to +313 after winning Premier League Player of the Month for October.

Riding a five-match winning streak, Leicester are currently second in the Premier League and Vardy sits atop the scoring charts with 12 to his name, two clear of Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham.

Golden Boot Odds

Player Current EPL Goals Odds
Jamie Vardy 12 +300
Harry Kane 7 +500
Tammy Abraham 10 +550
Sergio Aguero 9 +650
Mohamed Salah 6 +800
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 8 +800
Sadio Mane 8 +800
Raheem Sterling 7 +1200
Marcus Rashford 7 +2500
Alexandre Lacazette 4 +4000

Odds taken Nov. 26. 

In-Form Vardy

No player in the league is in better form than Vardy right now. The former England international has found the net in six of his last seven matches, scoring nine and assisting two over that span. Leicester are on a role, and their attacking play is built around creating chances for Vardy.

Vardy currently ranks 24th in shots per game, however, and has been drastically overperforming his expected numbers. Understat have Vardy at 6.95 xG (including penalties) – he’s scored 12. Although he’s exceeded his expected numbers over a season in the past, this rate is unlikely to continue unless his quality of chances increases.

As a team, Leicester have overperformed at both ends of the pitch. Their defense has been great, though not quite as outstanding as the eight total goals conceded suggests. The Foxes are unlikely to keep this level up all season and Vardy’s output will likely decline as a result.

Expected Competitors

With a two-goal lead over his nearest competitor, though, Vardy will remain a frontrunner for the Golden Boot. He’s still getting 0.53 xG90, a mark that puts him 10th in the Premier League.

Sergio Aguero – who leads the category by a long way – has suffered an injury that makes him an outsider for the Golden Boot. Abraham, Mohamed Salah and Raheem Sterling all rank higher than Vardy in xG90 – Vardy has a six-goal lead over Salah and five-goal lead over Sterling. Abraham is likely the biggest threat.

Abraham went through what felt like a cold spell. He only went three starts without a goal in all competitions, however, and has scored in two of his last three league outings. Like Vardy, he’s overperformed his expected numbers to date, but the lead he’s built over Salah, Sterling and the other contenders could prove crucial in May.

Abraham is Value

It’s not often Harry Kane isn’t mentioned in an article about the Golden Boot. Playing in a more advanced role under Jose Mourinho, Kane shouldn’t be forgotten about, but fitness is a concern and we need to see more of Kane under Mourinho before we can really evaluate his chances of a third Premier League Golden Boot.

Abraham is the focal point at Chelsea and will remain so all season. Having twice started 40 matches in a season, there isn’t a track record of injury issues. Chelsea continues to create chances as well as any team not named Manchester City. The fact he doesn’t take penalties is the only question mark of Abraham’s Golden Boot candidacy. He’s a good bet at +550.

Pick: Tammy Abraham (+550)

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