Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham Co-Leader in Premier League Scoring, Now 6-1 to Win Golden Boot

• Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham has eight Premier League goals this season
• Only Aguero has scored as many as the Chelsea youngster
• Abraham as low as +600 to win the Golden Boot

Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham has fallen to +600 to win the Premier League Golden Boot after scoring eight goals in the opening eight matches of the campaign.

Frank Lampard’s Chelsea won four matches on the bounce prior to the international break. The former Chelsea midfielder is leading a youth revolution at Stamford Bridge with Abraham, Mason Mount and Fikayo Tomori already fixtures in the first-choice eleven.

Premier League Golden Boot Odds

*Odds taken 10/8/19

Odds Dropping Quickly

Abraham faced criticism after missing chances against Manchester United and Liverpool at the start of the season, but he’s been on fire since then. Level with Sergio Aguero at the top of the scoring charts, Abraham’s EPL Golden Boot odds have shortened all the way from +12500 in July. Sportsbooks have the Chelsea youngster at the same price as Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah, who won the Golden Boot in each of the last two seasons, sharing it with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sadio Mane last term.

With Eden Hazard in Madrid, Chelsea needed a new face to lead their front line. Abraham has quickly made himself that man. His Golden Boot credentials go deeper than a hot start to the season, however.

Prolific at Aston Villa last season, Abraham has a track record (albeit in the second tier). His game is well-rounded – he’s a threat to run in behind, in the air and can find gaps in a deep defense as he showed with a wonderful finish against Lille.

Most non-penalty goals scored by players aged 23-or-under across Europe's top five leagues this season:

8 • ??????? Tammy Abraham
7 • ?? Victor Osimhen
6 • ?? Moussa Dembélé
5 • ?? Timo Werner
4 • ?? Wesley Moraes
4 • ??????? Mason Mount
4 • ?? Efthimis Koulouris
4 • ?? Maxi Gómez pic.twitter.com/K1hCRibc66

— Scouted Football (@ScoutedFtbl) October 7, 2019

Sustainable Finishing

Only Aguero has a higher expected goals per 90 (xG90) than Abraham’s 0.72. The runs of Mount, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Willian and overlapping full-backs create space for Abraham. Unlike play under Maurizio Sarri last season, there is no hesitation from midfielders to go for the killer ball when Abraham makes a run into the channel.

While some of his Golden Boot rivals – particularly Salah – have had a slow start, Abraham’s early season form is sustainable. This hasn’t been a finishing hot streak. Chelsea are creating a lot of chances, Abraham is their focal point, and with Ruben Loftus-Cheek yet to return, Hudson-Odoi still working his way back to full fitness and Christian Pulisic waiting for his chance, Chelsea have the supporting cast to keep providing Abraham with opportunities.

Is Abraham a Good Bet?

With 30 matches to play and an early advantage over several other Golden Boot contenders, Abraham’s +600 price with one sportsbook is good value.

Fitness and rotation could harm Aguero’s chances of winning his first Golden Boot since 2014/15. Aubameyang will be shifted out wide again when Alexandre Lacazette returns from injury. Salah and Mane share the scoring burden. Abraham is the main man at Chelsea and, assuming he stays fit, that isn’t going to change any time soon.

He’s going to score a high percentage of Chelsea’s goals, and if Chelsea’s attack continues to create at this rate, he’s a great bet to become the most surprising Golden Boot winner in Premier League history.